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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CAT; NUAN; RS; XPRSA
Strong plays:
1) WYNN: Can really run and has made a good test.
2) NVDA: Very nice.
3) COHR: Nice test and showing volume now.
4) BRCM: Excellent test of the trend reversal
5) BRKS: Nice test of the break over the 200 day SMA.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 08/23/2006
WYNN (Wynn Resorts--$75.12; +1.01; optionable): Resorts and casinos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wynn.html
After Hours: $75.17
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Very nice pullback this week to the 10 day EMA (74.14) as WYNN tests a strong move higher last week, breaking past the middle of the pattern (74) on strong volume. Very solid 15 week base has set up for another strong move higher. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price, ready to lead WYNN to a new all-time high. Using options to leverage our gains. A move to the target lands a 52%ish gain.
Volume: 1.133M Avg Volume: 1.196M
BUY POINT: $75.57 Volume=1.2M Target=$82.50 Stop=$73.88
POSITION: UWY LO - Dec. $75c (56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wynn.html
New buy points on current positions:
Play Date: 08/23/2006
NVDA (Nvidia--$26.29; -0.02; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
After Hours: $26.49
STATUS: Breakout test. A sweet pullback that never got out of control. Indeed on Wednesday it faded to the 10 day EMA (25.74) on low volume, then started to rebound into the close. A very nice 15 week base, and ready to break higher once more.
Volume: 8.081M Avg Volume: 10.402M
BUY POINT: $26.89 Volume=10M Target=$31.00 Stop=$25.65
POSITION: UVA LE - Dec. $25c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nvda.html
Play Date: 08/23/2006
NVLS (Novellus Systems--$26.68; +0.39; optionable): Semiconductor equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvls.html
After Hours: $26.65
STATUS: Cup w/handle. NVLS is forming a handle to its 28 week base, coming back to the 10 day EMA (26.30) this week, holding that support Wednesday and bouncing on lower but average volume. Plenty of room for a nice bounce here to the January high to give us a nice gain near term.
Volume: 3.092M Avg Volume: 2.975M
BUY POINT: $26.95 Volume=2.9M Target=$30.75 Stop=$26.05
POSITION: NLQ LE - Dec. $25c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nvls.html
Play Date: 08/22/2006
WEBX (Webex Communications--$35.74; -0.98; optionable): Web conferencing, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/webx.html
After Hours: $35.52
STATUS: Test breakout. Another low volume test, though it plunked down a bit harder than we wanted. Nonetheless it held the 10 day EMA (35.52) rather easily, continuing the low volume pullback after the strong surge last week. Looking for a hold at the 10 day and then a rebound. May undercut early on but just about ready to rebound. To recap: Nice strong move last week allowed us to pocket some quick option gain, and now WEBX is making a low volume test of that move. It is not giving up much ground, a good sign of strength. Tapped at some support at 36 on the Tuesday low on very low volume (that is the highs in the pattern) and rebounded to close just negative. Looking for a bit more testing here toward 36, and then we will step back in when WEBX rebounds.
Volume: 406.549K Avg Volume: 677.185K
BUY POINT: $36.32 Volume=690K Target=$41.95 Stop=$35.35
POSITION: UWB LG - Dec. $35c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/webx.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/21/2006
BRCM (Broadcom--$28.85; +0.09; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcm.html
After Hours: $29.00
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Nice hammer doji right over the 10 day EMA (28.14) as BRCM continued its excellent pullback to test the break of its downtrend and then the move over the 50 day EMA (28.33). Nice test. Ready to move. To recap: It has been a long time since January when we bought a bunch of BRCM and it bolted higher on strong volume. That was just about the apex of its run and shortly after it topped and rolled over. BRCM broke through its 4 month downtrend this month, moving laterally with SOX and then breaking sharply higher last Tuesday and Wednesday. Strong volume on the upside move shows the buyers (short coverers and long buyers) were moving in force. It then eased back to end the week and did more of the same Monday, fading toward the 50 day EMA on lower volume, below average on Monday. Looking for a test of the 50 day EMA to set off the next move. This was a trend reversal move, and this is the first test of the stronger break higher. If it continues up from here on volume we know the buyers are back in.
Volume: 11.586M Avg Volume: 17.759M
BUY POINT: $29.75 Volume=20M Target=$36.00 Stop=$28.08
POSITION: RCQ AF - Jan. $30c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brcm.html
Play Date: 08/21/2006
BRKS (Brooks Automation--$13.70; +0.06; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brks.html
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. Still very low volume as BRKS holds over the 200 day SMA (13.46), showing a doji at that level again Wednesday. Beautiful set up for a sharp run higher as it follows the strong money flow. To recap: After languishing in a downtrend since February, BRKS jumped higher to start the month, rising to the 200 day SMA. It stalled, then broke through early last week. It is now testing, and we are looking for this tap back at the 200 day to hold and for BRKS to rebound on rising trade from here. That is our entry point to trade this one back up to the February high.
Volume: 263.728K Avg Volume: 696.788K
BUY POINT: $14.12 Volume=900K Target=$17.50 Stop=$13.33
POSITION: BQE AV - Jan. $12.50c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brks.html
Play Date: 08/22/2006
COHR (Coherent--$35.58; -0.48; optionable): Lasers, precision optics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cohr.html
After Hours: $35.73
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Reached down below the 10 day EMA (35.32) on the low, tapping toward the 18 day EMA (34.52) and then rebounding sharply to hold the 10 day. Good volume shows buyers were moving in as it tested and rallied back. Excellent action. To recap: Nice lateral move and then the Wednesday dip as COHR consolidates the August run that formed the right leg of its 16 week base. Volume jumped sharply higher Tuesday as COHR showed a tight doji, holding the gains and well above the 10 day EMA. Positive accumulation and money flow going hand in hand as COHR sets up the next break higher. The leader in its sector.
Volume: 388.469K Avg Volume: 255.263K
BUY POINT: $36.74 Volume=350K Target=$43.00 Stop=$35.15
POSITION: HRQ AG - Jan. $35c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cohr.html
Play Date: 08/19/2006
FORM (Formfactor--$45.18; -0.70; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/form.html
Earnings reported: 7-28-06
After Hours: $45.03
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Big volume Wednesday as FORM surged higher out of the gats to 48.45 but then faded as the market rolled back, closing with a loss. Came off the 18 day EMA on the low, holding above the 10 day EMA (44.61) on the close. Don't like the wild action, but this is in great position still for another move. To recap: Taking another run at FORM after it ran us around in July. That move, however, set up the current 7 week pattern over the 50 day EMA (42.12). Last week it broke higher to complete the base, though volume remained below average. It started to fade back to end the week, tapping at the 10 day EMA before bouncing back. May snug up a bit more to the 10 day, but after that we expect a strong volume breakout over 46. That is our entry point as FORM breaks out. Getting warm for form. Yes, pretty weak humor.
Volume: 1.474M Avg Volume: 875.295K
BUY POINT: $46.04 Volume=1.3M Target=$55.00 Stop=$43.72
POSITION: AFU AI - Jan. $45c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/form.html
Play Date: 08/21/2006
VARI (Varian--$44.91; -0.80; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vari.html
After Hours: $45.00
STATUS: Breakout test. Did not hold the 10 day EMA, but fell to the 18 day EMA (44.72) Wednesday on average volume. Strong break higher last week has been fully tested. Need to see strong volume as it rebounds. To recap: VARI blasted higher last week on strong volume, breaking out from a 10 week double bottom with handle base. Surged to 49 on the move and then started reversing intraday Thursday, continuing the pullback through Wednesday. Nice move to a 6 year high and now testing the move, setting up for the next run higher. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the base shows a lot of buying setting the foundation for a breakout and the run higher. Money flow is strong as well, moving higher ahead of price. Nice relative strength breakout as well on the price move, a good corroboration of the breakout move.
Volume: 243.45K Avg Volume: 242.16K
BUY POINT: $46.12 Volume=265K Target=$52.95 Stop=$45.15
POSITION: IUA BI - Feb. $45c (57 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vari.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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