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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers: VARI; WYNN; CAT; XPRSA
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 08/24/2006
DRIV (Digital River--$47.00; +0.22; optionable): e-commerce outsourcing solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/driv.html
After Hours: $47.05
STATUS: Breakout test. DRIV made us some nice money on last week's breakout from its 14 week double bottom with handle base. Strong volume on that move and a low volume test this week, back to the 18 day EMA (45.86) Thursday, rebounding back up from that test lower on rising, average volume. Strong money flow remains. Like the strong rebound back up to the 10 day EMA after the test. The higher volume shows buyers coming back in. Looks ready to continue the breakout move.
Volume: 937.941K Avg Volume: 983.194K
BUY POINT: $47.55 Volume=1.2M Target=$54.75 Stop=$45.85
POSITION: DQI LI - Dec. $45c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/driv.html
Downside Plays:
Play Date: 08/24/2006
EXPD (Expeditors Intl.--$39.59; -0.63; optionable): Air delivery & freight
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/expd.html
After Hours: $39.59
STATUS: Put. After a strong run in early 2006 EXPD tried another break higher in late June. It ran out of volume and failed, starting the current downtrend. It tumbled to the 200 day SMA (42.18), broke through and then came back to test that level a week back. Turned back down and creeping lower this week. Looking for a stronger drop from here as EXPD continues the downtrend. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 1.182M Avg Volume: 2.176M
BUY POINT: $39.38 Volume=2.2M Target=$37.10 Stop=$40.05
POSITION: URP VH - Oct. $40p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/expd.html
Play Date: 08/24/2006
JEF (Jeffries Group--$24.39; -0.80; optionable): Brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jef.html
STATUS: Put. Peaked in late April and falling below the 50 day EMA (26.62) since. It broke below the 200 day in July, tested it twice in August, and then started lower. Thursday volume jumped as it caved further. Looking for a continued fall as JEF follows some really weak money flow lower. A move to the target lands a 60%ish gain.
Volume: 1.221M Avg Volume: 891.183K
BUY POINT: $24.15 Volume=895K Target=$22.10 Stop=$24.82
POSITION: JEF VE - Oct. $25p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jef.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
BRCM, BRKS, WEBX all look ready to move.
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
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LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABAX 08/02 Asc Bse 22.58 +0.17 23.30 27.75 90K 637K 22.15
Current. Moving up on low volume after testing the 18 day MVA
ACGY 08/21 Rv H&S 18.06 +0.06 18.28 21.95 134K 400K 17.00
Buy Not Issued.
AH 08/16 Dbl btm 51.37 -1.13 54.20 62.50 468K 800K 52.95
Exited.
AMX 07/24 Rv H&S 36.66 -0.06 36.12 43.00 9M 6.5M 36.58
Current.
APH 08/14 DB hdl 57.99 -0.62 58.95 67.00 238K 800K 57.21
Current.
ARD 08/22 Test BO 39.98 -0.07 39.11 44.75 160K 250K 38.14
Current.
ARD 07/29 Cup hdl 39.98 -0.07 36.93 34.89 160K 252K 38.15
Current.
ARTC 08/05 DB hdl 45.30 +0.95 44.65 51.50 421K 350K 45.00
Current.
BRCM 08/21 Test 50 28.94 +0.09 29.75 36.00 8.8M 20M 28.08
Buy Not Hit. Beginning to make a lateral move on low volume along the 50 day MVA
BRKS 08/21 Test 20 13.66 -0.04 14.12 17.50 301K 900K 13.33
Buy Not Hit.
COHR 08/22 DB hdl 35.25 -0.33 36.74 43.00 135K 350K 35.15
Buy Not Hit. Pullback tapping 34.92 at the intraday low and rallied back holding the 10 day MVA on low volume. Still in the pattern.
DRIV 08/05 DB hdl 47.00 +0.22 45.72 57.50 938K 1.2M 46.89
Current. Tapped 45.28 at the intraday low and made a fierce rally back showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on rising, but average volume. Should be ready to rebound from here.
FORM 08/19 Rv H&S 44.92 -0.26 46.55 55.00 647K 1.3M 44.44
Current. Ease back tapping 44.52 at the intraday low and rallied back on lower below average volume. Looking for stock to rebound off the 10 day MVA (44.85)
FSL 08/10 Test 50 29.29 +0.49 29.70 33.95 1.2M 2.5M 28.69
Current. Moving up on lower volume after testing the 50 day MVA
GES 08/09 Test BO 44.90 -4.20 47.10 56.00 2.6M 900K 47.89
Trailing Stop.
GILD 07/12 Cup hdl 63.70 +0.56 63.87 74.95 2.1M 7M 62.42
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA on low volume. Moving up after typical pullback.
GS 08/02 Cup 151.40 -1.30 152.00 165.00 3.1M 6.5M 151.78
Exited.
HCR 05/10 Test BO 52.22 -0.63 46.77 53.40 849K 750K 52.39
Trailing Stop.
HITT 08/22 Test BO 41.45 +0.30 41.05 47.95 132K 400K 39.88
Current.
HITT 08/14 Asc Bse 41.45 +0.30 38.57 44.95 132K 400K 40.00
HMSY 07/22 Asc Bse 12.87 +0.20 11.85 13.85 99K 225K 12.95
Current. Moving up on low volume after testing the 10 day MVA.
IMO 08/14 Test BO 38.36 -0.43 39.55 45.48 154K 375K 38.11
Buy Not Issued. Gapped down and continued to move down tapping 38.15 at the intraday low and rallied back to hold the 18 day MVA. Need to see a clear and decisive move on strong volume.
LH 06/13 Test BO 68.10 -0.12 61.32 71.44 1M 1M 67.35
Current. Pullback tapping 67.43 at the intraday low and rallied back on slightly above average volume. Looking for stock to rebound off the 10 day MVA (67.75)
LUFK 08/09 PreAnn 63.20 -0.03 63.95 76.00 98K 225K 61.39
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a tight doji on low volume. Looking for the breakaway move.
MOLX 08/10 Test 50 34.57 -0.42 34.72 40.95 284K 625K 34.68
Current. Pullback on low volume. Looking for stock to rebound off the 18 day MVA (34.35)
NGPS 08/12 Test BO 44.98 +0.30 41.48 48.88 101K 190K 43.65
Current. Tapped 43.50 at the intraday low and rallied back on rising, but below average volume. Moving up after typical pullback.
NITE 07/29 Cup hdl 16.66 -0.37 16.68 19.98 1.8M 2M 16.45
Current. Pullback on stronger above average volume managing to hold the 10 day MVA. May continue to test back to support at 16.50.
NVDA 08/23 Test BO 26.56 +0.27 26.58 31.00 4.3M 10M 25.55
Entered today. Reached lower intraday to the 10 day EMA & rebounded. Volume was low but we liked the recovery so added some
positions.
NVDA 08/08 Test 20 26.56 +0.27 25.45 31.00 4.3M 12M 25.75
Current.
NVLS 08/23 Rv H&S 26.69 +0.01 26.95 30.75 4.1M 2.9M 26.05
Buy Not Issued.
PETD 08/22 Cup hdl 43.41 +0.72 42.81 53.95 99K 182K 41.78
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back for a nice gain on low volume. Continue with the uptrend.
PLCM 08/22 Test BO 23.36 +0.18 23.88 27.95 651K 1.4M 22.89
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 22.89 at the intraday low and rallied back showing a doji on below average volume. Still in the pattern. Looking good.
PRXL 08/19 Test BO 31.71 +0.11 32.05 36.95 162K 285K 31.31
Buy Not Issued.
QSII 08/09 Test BO 39.39 -0.66 37.45 45.00 197K 500K 39.00
Current. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday on low volume. Should be ready to bounce from here.
SEIC 08/14 Asc Bse 50.53 -0.67 50.72 58.50 371K 750K 51.31
Current. Pullback tapping 49.79 at the intraday low and rallied back on rising, but below average volume. May continue to test back to support at 50.
SLB 08/01 Rv H&S 63.85 -0.44 65.35 65.50 5.4M 12M 63.85
Buy Not Issued.
SLB 07/10 DB hdl 63.85 -0.44 65.21 74.50 5.4M 12M 64.60
Current. Managed to hold the June to August trendline (63.35)
on low volume. This is where it needs to deliver the upside.
SPSX 07/31 Dbl btm 34.65 -0.65 31.17 37.00 123K 401K 35.78
Trailing Stop.
TYL 08/12 Test BO 12.75 +0.17 12.38 14.85 154K 210K 12.22
Current.
TZOO 08/17 Dbl btm 33.17 +0.84 32.04 36.72 654K 700K 32.55
Current.
VARI 08/21 Test BO 46.09 +1.18 45.94 52.95 229K 265K 44.72
Entered today. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back for a nice gain on average volume.
WEBX 08/22 Test BO 35.97 +0.23 36.32 41.95 375K 690K 35.35
Buy Not Hit.
WEBX 08/15 Asc Bse 35.97 +0.23 35.20 41.95 375K 725K 35.95
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back on below average volume.
WNR 08/19 Test BO 25.26 +0.21 25.44 30.50 357K 700K 23.89
Buy Not Issued. Showing a doji above the 10 day MVA on low volume. Moving up after testing the 18 day MVA.
WYNN 08/23 DB hdl 76.09 +0.97 75.96 82.50 1.3M 1.2M 74.29
Entered today.
XLE 08/17 Test 50 57.83 +0.74 57.44 62.95 11M 26M 57.89
Current. Tested the 50 day MVA intraday and rallied back on below average volume. Moving up after testing the simple 50 day MVA.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AMMD 08/09 Put 16.71 -0.02 16.80 15.55 626K 1.8M 16.95
Current.
CAT 08/19 Put 65.50 -1.71 67.82 65.55 8.9M 5.2M 67.65
Target Hit. Nice move down the 10 day MVA hitting the target.
CNCT 08/12 Put 9.91 -0.14 9.08 7.75 368K 750K 9.58
Current. Gapped down showing a doji on the 18 day MVA. Still in downtrend.
JBLU 08/19 Put 10.09 -0.09 10.21 9.50 1.5M 4.5M 10.25
Current. Moving down the 10 day MVA on low volume.
NUAN 08/14 Put 7.54 +0.08 7.84 6.65 1.5M 2.2M 7.68
Current. Low volume bounce. Tapped 7.64 at the intraday high, but faded back. Still in downtrend.
XPRSA 08/15 Put 20.46 -0.41 21.90 19.90 181K 245K 20.59
Current. Nice move down the 10 day MVA on low volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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