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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BGC; GLBL; NOVN; VTIV; WFR; WNR; JEF; XPRSA
Thursday night play results:
DRIV: Shot higher early but could not hold the move
SVNT: Tried to continue the move but ended up reversing to close flat.
CRI: Faded but managed a modest rebound. Still below the 10 day EMA
JEF: Gapped lower and stayed down.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/26/2006
ANEN (Anaren--$21.18; +0.89; optionable): Microwave and radio frequency components for wireless telecom, satellite, defense, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anen.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. ANEN is setting up for a 5 year high, moving toward the breakout from an 11 week base sporting strong 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). Good close to the week, moving higher on rising volume after a good hold at the 10 day EMA (20.19) as it tested the move from the prior week. Money flow is leading higher, and ANEN is in position for a nice, fast run for us this week.
Volume: 103.278K Avg Volume: 153.031K
BUY POINT: $21.45 Volume=230K Target=$24.89 Stop=$20.05
POSITION: EVB AD - Jan. $20c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/anen.html
Play Date: 08/26/2006
ASMI (ASM International--$17.13; -0.01; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asmi.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Excellent handle formed last week with a tight, low volume pullback to the 200 day SMA (17.06) after surging through that level two weeks back on strong volume. Nice handle to the 16 week base, holding the 200 day SMA and ready to follow the rising money flow higher. Plenty of room to run upside, and it can do it quickly as demonstrated on the last two legs higher; just what we want for this week.
Volume: 34.673K Avg Volume: 194.685K
BUY POINT: $17.55 Volume=285K Target=$20.97 Stop=$16.95
POSITION: IQB LW - Dec. $17.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/asmi.html
Play Date: 08/26/2006
BRCM (Broadcom--$28.54; -0.40; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcm.html
After Hours: $28.58
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Locked and loaded, holding above the 50 day EMA (28.36) last week in a nice low volume test after blasting through that level two weeks back on strong volume. Broke its downtrend, broke the 50 day EMA, and now rested. Ready to move in as it rebounds. If the market moves well, we can even get aggressive. This may be a very good long term entry point for BRCM as well. We will just have to see how it plays out after the market makes this next run. To recap: It has been a long time since January when we bought a bunch of BRCM and it bolted higher on strong volume. That was just about the apex of its run and shortly after it topped and rolled over. BRCM broke through its 4 month downtrend this month, moving laterally with SOX and then breaking sharply higher last Tuesday and Wednesday. Strong volume on the upside move shows the buyers (short coverers and long buyers) were moving in force. It then eased back to end the week and did more of the same Monday, fading toward the 50 day EMA on lower volume, below average. Has made the test of the 50 day EMA, and now looking for the bounce higher. This was a trend reversal move, and this is the first test of the stronger break higher. If it continues up from here on volume we know the buyers are back in.
Volume: 9.157M Avg Volume: 17.123M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $29.15 (orig. $29.75) Volume=20M Target=$36.00 Stop=$28.08
POSITION: RCQ AF - Jan. $30c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/brcm.html
Play Date: 08/26/2006
PFWD (Phase Forward--$11.63; +0.03; no options): Integrated enterprise-level software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfwd.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Has formed an 11 week reverse head and shoulders at the bottom of its 15 week base, roughly holding the 200 day SMA (10.72) as support as it set up for a new high. Relatively young issue (Q3 2004) setting up a nice base for a new run. Money flow is running higher ahead of the stock, leading the way. Showed some good volume Wednesday and Thursday as it moved up to test the interim highs in the pattern at 12. Getting ready to make the quick run to 14.
Volume: 65.043K Avg Volume: 217.905K
BUY POINT: $12.08 Volume=327K Target=$14.00 Stop=$11.23
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/pfwd.html
Play Date: 08/26/2006
SPY (S&P Depository Receipts--$129.81; +0.16; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spy.html
After Hours: $129.85
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Matching the large cap index, SPY made a nice low volume pullback tot eh 10 day EMA (129.45) last week, testing the strong move higher and setting up the next leg up this week. We are looking for a run up to the prior high before any trouble sets in. A move to the target lands a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 41.758M Avg Volume: 80.535M
BUY POINT: $130.04 Volume=80M Target=$132.60 Stop=$129.39
POSITION: SFB JZ - Oct. 130c (56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/spy.html
Continuing plays ready to move:
Play Date: 08/22/2006
COHR (Coherent--$35.42; +0.17; optionable): Lasers, precision optics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cohr.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working on the handle, gapping modestly lower Friday but rebounding to close just over the 10 day EMA. Nice work, set to move if the techs can stage that third leg. Can move quickly as well, just what we want. To recap: Nice lateral move as COHR consolidates the August run that formed the right leg of its 16 week base. Volume jumped sharply higher Tuesday as COHR showed a tight doji, holding the gains and well above the 10 day EMA. Positive accumulation and money flow going hand in hand as COHR sets up the next break higher. The leader in its sector.
Volume: 165.416K Avg Volume: 249.898K
BUY POINT: $36.74 Volume=350K Target=$43.00 Stop=$35.15
POSITION: HRQ AG - Jan. $35c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cohr.html
Play Date: 08/24/2006
DRIV (Digital River--$46.43; -0.57; optionable): e-commerce outsourcing solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/driv.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Tried the move Friday, but no volume and it faded back, but still holding easily above the 18 day EMA (45.92). Nice breakout, nice test, just needs the market to come with it. To recap: DRIV made us some nice money on the last breakout 2 weeks back from its 14 week double bottom with handle base. Strong volume on that move and a low volume test this week, back to the 18 day EMA Thursday, rebounding back up from that test lower on rising, average volume. Strong money flow remains. Like the strong rebound back up to the 10 day EMA after the test. The higher volume shows buyers coming back in. Looks ready to continue the breakout move.
Volume: 619.043K Avg Volume: 985.783K
BUY POINT: $47.55 Volume=1.2M Target=$54.75 Stop=$45.85
POSITION: DQI LI - Dec. $45c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/driv.html
Also ready: CTCM, LMNX, LSCC, NVLS, RNWK
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, AKAM, CCJ, CELG, FLR, GME, MGPI, MRVL, NVDA, SGMS, WM
CELG: Trying to hold a double bottom, bouncing higher Friday but no volume with that move.
MGPI: More volume on this move and it is a buy as it breaks higher.
NVDA: Still set to move higher from its excellent low volume handle.
SGMS: Trailing off lower and lower
WM: After fighting back to recover the 200 day SMA it faltered, stalled, and then fell hard Friday on strong trade. Not good.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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