|
|
us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 2 of 2
Full report issues Tuesday.
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: AMX; CTSH; DRIV; DVA; FTO; GILD MOLX; SHOO; TZOO; VSEA
New Plays:
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 08/28/2006
MW (Mens Wearhouse--$35.60; +0.96; optionable): If you don't look good, they don't look good
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mw.html
STATUS: Breakout test. MW exploded out of a 15 month base two weeks back on strong volume as it reported blowout sales. It gapped higher and surged only to almost immediately turn back and fill the gap, holding the 18 day EMA (34.54) to end last week, then bouncing Monday. Strong 6 to 1 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) in the last 6 months shows nearly all buying. Strong money flow complements the strong accumulation. On a bit more volume on the rebound it is ready.
Volume: 451.7K Avg Volume: 646.575K
BUY POINT: $35.89 Volume=650K Target=$41.35 Stop=$34.42
POSITION: MW KG - Nov. $35c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mw.html
Play Date: 08/28/2006
PLMD (Polymedica--$39.29; +0.24; optionable): Drug manufacturers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plmd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Similar to many stocks, PLMD faded last week to test a strong break higher on solid trade. Nice handle to an 18 week base, setting up for a break higher. Positive accumulation and strong money flow holding tough as PLMD tests back, holding the 18 day EMA (39.14) on the lows the past week. Nice test with plenty of room to the upside (April high in the base is at 46) to give us a nice gain on the rebound and rally toward a new all-time high.
Volume: 138.388K Avg Volume: 281.919K
BUY POINT: $39.68 Volume=423K Target=$45.75 Stop=$38.55
POSITION: PM LH - Dec. $40c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/plmd.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 08/28/2006
MOLX (Molex--$36.28; +1.58; optionable): Micro-miniature connectors, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/molx.html
STATUS: Test breakout. MOLX blasted higher two weeks back, moving out of a 14 week reverse head and shoulders base, tested with the market the past week, holding the 18 day EMA (34.59) on the low. It then exploded higher Monday on the best volume in three weeks. Surging money flow, great pattern, etc. Blasting higher and ready to move in as it continues.
Volume: 766.006K Avg Volume: 556.748K
BUY POINT: $36.40 Volume=550K Target=$40.95 Stop=$35.00
POSITION: OXQ KG - Nov. $35c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/molx.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/21/2006
BRCM (Broadcom--$28.70; +0.16; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcm.html
After Hours: $28.69
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Very tight doji Monday on continued below average volume. Crouched, poised to bounce, ready to blast off, etc. Call it what you want, we are waiting for the move and it looks to be setting up a strong one. To recap: Locked and loaded, holding above the 50 day EMA (28.38) last week in a nice low volume test after blasting through that level two weeks back on strong volume. Broke its downtrend, broke the 50 day EMA, and now rested. Ready to move in as it rebounds. If the market moves well, we can even get aggressive and get in a bit lower in price than the original buy point. This may be a very good long term entry point for BRCM as well. We will just have to see how it plays out after the market makes this next run. History: It has been a long time since January when we bought a bunch of BRCM and it bolted higher on strong volume. That was just about the apex of its run and shortly after it topped and rolled over. BRCM broke through its 4 month downtrend this month, moving laterally with SOX and then breaking sharply higher last Tuesday and Wednesday. Strong volume on the upside move shows the buyers (short coverers and long buyers) were moving in force. It then eased back to end the week and did more of the same Monday, fading toward the 50 day EMA on lower volume, below average. Has made the test of the 50 day EMA, and now looking for the bounce higher. This was a trend reversal move, and this is the first test of the stronger break higher. If it continues up from here on volume we know the buyers are back in.
Volume: 8.347M Avg Volume: 17.123M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $29.15 (orig. $29.75) Volume=20M Target=$36.00 Stop=$28.08
POSITION: RCQ AF - Jan. $30c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/brcm.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAY:
Play Date: 08/26/2006
ASMI (ASM International--$17.25; +0.12; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asmi.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume moved higher Monday as ASMI held the 200 day SMA (17.08) on the test and is starting back up. Looks ready to make the move. To recap: Excellent handle formed last week with a tight, low volume pullback to the 200 day SMA after surging through that level two weeks back on strong volume. Nice handle to the 16 week base, holding the 200 day SMA and ready to follow the rising money flow higher. Plenty of room to run upside, and it can do it quickly as demonstrated on the last two legs higher; just what we want for this week.
Volume: 108.044K Avg Volume: 194.685K
BUY POINT: $17.55 Volume=285K Target=$20.97 Stop=$16.95
POSITION: IQB LW - Dec. $17.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/asmi.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
The following link is to a spreadsheet download of the continuing play table. It will allow subscribers to sort the data for your personal investment use. This is a service to our subscribers only, and no other use of the information is authorized. Simply click on the link, enter your username and password, and download the spreadsheet!
http://stocksplits.net/ssr/table.php
You will need your password. If you need help click on this link and our automated system will email it to you immediately once you fill in your email address:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri =Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AAPL 08/21 Cup hdl 66.98 -1.77 68.12 78.00 26M 40M 66.21
Current. Pullback holding just above the 200 day MVA on rising volume. Looking for a bounce off support at 18 day MVA (66)
AEOS 08/10 Cup hdl 35.80 +0.25 35.46 42.45 2.3M 2.5M 36.22
Current. Moving up on rising volume after testing the 18 day MVA. Came off the day's high of 36.61.
AGN 07/25 PreAnn 113.60 +0.02 109.32 117.50 623K 1.5M 111.88
Current. Beginning to consolidate on rising volume.
AMX 08/03 Cup hdl 37.78 +0.75 36.58 43.00 4.1M 6.5M 36.98
Current.
APH 08/14 DB hdl 58.65 +0.83 58.95 67.00 332K 800K 57.55
Current.
ASMI 08/26 Cup hdl 17.25 +0.12 17.55 20.97 108K 285K 16.95
Buy Not Hit. Bounced off the 10 day MVA on much stronger, but below average volume. Still forming the handle.
BAM 08/22 Asc Bse 44.04 +0.98 44.26 50.95 279K 450K 42.89
Buy Not Issued.
BRCM 08/21 Test 50 28.70 +0.16 29.75 36.00 8.3M 20M 28.08
Buy Not Hit. Moving up after testing the 50 day MVA. In the pattern.
CAM 08/19 Test 50 48.69 -1.08 49.45 56.50 1.5M 2.4M 48.88
Current. Gapped down and the open and continued to move down holding just below the 18 day MVA on below average volume. Looking for a rebound off the 50 day MVA (48)
CERN 08/23 DB hdl 45.90 +0.98 46.58 53.55 519K 1.4M 44.62
Buy Not Hit. Nice move up on rising volume. Looking good. Will need to see more volume on upside move.
CPRT 08/24 PreAnn 27.50 +0.02 27.72 32.95 392K 550K 26.45
Buy Not Hit.
CTRP 08/26 Cup 51.44 +0.92 51.65 57.89 264K 601K 49.39
Entered today.
CTSH 08/19 PreAnn 71.20 +2.12 71.11 79.00 951K 1.8M 68.22
Buy Not Issued. Volume not there to enter the play. If stock continues the move on strong volume will be a buy.
CTSH 07/28 PreAnn 71.20 +2.12 66.12 77.95 951K 2.4M 68.45
Current.
CVD 08/26 Asc Bse 63.05 +0.04 63.89 71.88 302K 732K 62.22
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a tight doji on rising, but below average volume. Still in the pattern.
CXW 08/26 PreSplt 63.38 +0.40 63.22 68.75 338K 405K 62.18
Buy Not Issued.
DHR 08/22 PreAnn 66.02 +0.61 66.32 74.95 1.4M 2M 64.55
Buy Not Issued. Meeting some resistance at 66. Needs to break through this resistance on strong volume.
DIOD 08/15 Test 20 38.43 +0.67 39.88 43.95 161K 380K 38.00
Current.
DNR 07/29 Rv H&S 32.18 -0.62 34.65 50.50 398K 1.6M 32.32
Current. Gapped down tapping 31.80 at the intraday low and rallied back showing a doji on the 50 day MVA on low volume. Looking for a rebound from here. Third attempt to break through the 10 day MVA (32.60)
DRIV 08/24 Test BO 47.67 +1.24 47.86 54.75 762K 1.2M 45.95
Entered today. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back for a great move on rising volume.
DRQ 08/07 Asc Bse 77.42 -2.37 87.12 99.85 319K 675K 82.04
Current. Managed to hold the up trendline but sagged from a
good consolidation near 80. Will see if it can overcome
the oil drop & rebound. Needs to make its move from
here as it is testing the trendline.
DRQ 07/28 PreAnn 77.42 -2.37 81.88 94.00 319K 636K 81.95
DVA 08/24 PreAnn 58.79 +1.13 57.55 65.95 842K 1.1M 56.78
ECL 07/18 PreAnn 44.15 +0.47 41.39 47.65 578K 1.2M 43.12
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA on rising volume. Moving up after testing the breakout.
ESRX 08/10 PreAnn 81.89 +0.14 83.42 94.90 1.4M 2M 81.31
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 80.40 at the intraday low and rallied back showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Doji may indicate a change in pattern to the upside. Looking ready to rebound from here.
FTO 07/13 Test BO 36.25 +0.62 33.25 39.95 3.9M 3.5M 35.11
Current. Strong above avg volume as FTO bucked the refiner trend,
posting a solid gain. It is making a higher low at
the 18 day EMA and is ready to break higher here.
FTO 06/29 Dbl btm 36.25 +0.62 30.84 37.00 3.9M 3.5M 35.11
Current.
GI 08/05 PreAnn 82.22 +10.43 72.65 86.95 2.1M 484K 68.77
Buy Not Issued. Gapped higher on a buyout move by WNR.
GILD 06/01 PreAnn 64.47 +1.27 60.97 70.95 2.6M 7M 62.78
Current. Tapped 63 at the intraday low and rallied back for a nice gain on below average volume. Moving up after typical pullback.
LH 05/30 PreAnn 68.50 +0.07 61.31 71.00 1.1M 1M 67.35
Current. Moving up on stronger above average volume after typical pullback to 10 day MVA.
LUFK 08/09 PreAnn 62.80 +0.02 63.95 76.00 85K 225K 61.39
Buy Not Issued. Pullback tapping 62.01 at the intraday low and rallied back showing a tight doji on the 10 day MVA on low volume. Beginning to make a lateral move.
MOLX 08/10 Test 50 36.28 +1.58 34.72 40.95 766K 625K 35.88
Current. Explosive move up on excellent volume surge after testing the 18 day MVA
MON 08/12 Test BO 46.89 -0.09 46.00 52.00 1.7M 3M 46.25
Current. Pullback showing a doji on rising volume. Meeting some new resistance at 47.
MON 07/11 PreSplt 46.89 -0.09 42.65 46.43 1.7M 3.1M 46.25
Current.
MTW 08/26 Dbl btm 43.58 +0.09 44.55 52.95 786K 1.8M 42.22
Buy Not Issued.
NBL 07/13 DB hdl 49.90 -0.17 49.30 59.45 1.2M 2.5M 49.32
Current.
NVDA 08/23 Test BO 27.39 +0.91 26.58 31.00 13M 10M 25.88
Current. Upgraded along with Intel and gapped higher running
to 28.17 on the high. Unfortunately it eroded in the
afternoon, giving back half the gain.
NVDA 08/08 Test 20 27.39 +0.91 25.45 31.00 13M 12M 25.88
Current.
OXY 08/10 PreSplt 52.63 -0.78 53.40 59.90 2.9M 3.8M 51.88
Current.
OXY 07/28 PreSplt 52.63 -0.78 53.79 58.50 2.9M 4M 51.88
Current.
PDS 08/19 DB hdl 37.20 -0.02 36.98 42.90 408K 888K 36.38
Current. Pullback tapping 36.47 at the intraday low and rallied back showing another doji on below average volume. Should be ready for next leg up.
QSII 08/09 Test BO 38.79 -0.72 37.45 45.00 260K 500K 39.00
Current. Pullback holding below the 10 day MVA on rising, but average volume. May continue to test back to 18 day MVA (38.30)
RAI 08/03 PreSplt 64.10 -0.02 62.93 67.43 800K 675K 64.00
Current. Pullback holding just below the 10 day MVA on low volume. Forming a handle.
SHOO 08/03 Cup hdl 35.90 +1.00 34.85 41.50 267K 584K 35.30
Current. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on rising, but below average volume. Moving up after testing the 18 day MVA.
SLB 08/01 Rv H&S 62.70 -1.75 65.35 65.50 4.4M 12M 63.85
Buy Not Issued. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop.
SLB 07/10 DB hdl 62.70 -1.75 65.21 74.50 4.4M 12M 64.60
Exited.
TZOO 08/17 Dbl btm 35.22 +2.26 32.04 36.72 1.5M 700K 33.15
Current.
VIP 08/21 Cup hdl 51.13 +0.88 50.88 58.50 611K 1.2M 48.75
Buy Not Issued. Volume not there to enter the play. If stock continues the move on strong volume will be a buy.
VSEA 08/22 DB hdl 35.23 +1.03 35.36 41.50 723K 1.2M 33.89
Entered today.
WFR 08/19 Dbl btm 36.78 +0.35 36.44 43.00 1.7M 5.5M 35.57
Current.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
CRI 08/24 Put 22.65 +0.50 21.84 19.80 702K 850K 22.55
Current. Bounced to hold the 18 day MVA on average volume. Still in a downtrend.
EXPD 08/24 Put 40.21 +1.45 38.88 36.55 1.3M 2.2M 39.35
Current. Bounced higher but still could not clear the downtrend,
tapping the 10 day EMA (40.43) on the high on lower,
below average volume.
XPRSA 08/15 Put 21.52 +1.37 21.90 19.90 260K 245K 20.25
Exited.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
stock recommendation
|
