InvestmentHouse.com Members Archives
Archives
 

us stock market, trade stock

Begin Part 4 of 4

PAST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:

LUV ($19.15; +0.18): Still holding over the former breakout point (19) and over its 18 day MVA (18.80), but LUV has not given us the volume we want on any of its recent attempts to move. Still, the current action is a good consolidation of that move higher as it rests for another attempt at resistance at 20. The aggressive can play a move over 19.40 on volume of 6 million, looking for positions with stock. The recent high on the weak breakout was 20, and we want to see above average volume on that move.

PRE-SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:

Watchlist:

HRH ($57.05; +0.80): Splits 2:1 effective 1-2-02. Having trouble, trying to hold the 50 day MVA (56.59) after this week's fall. We have time to see if it will hold and put something together.

FLO ($39.95; +0.05): Splits 3:2 on 1-3-02. Another stock that has bled back, and FLO is now struggling just below its 50 day MVA (40.02). Could be in for more of a drop, but we have some time.

Plays:

CBH (Commerce Bancorp--$75.75; +0.15): Splits 2:1 effective 12-19-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbh.html
STATUS: Dropped back through the 18 day Thursday but closed Friday with a higher volume doji near the Thursday low as volume increased to 117,900 (average 151,200). It is within the range of its wedging handle (over the handle lows and 50 day MVA at 74.26), so we will see if CBH can hold here and mount a recovery. We don't have a lot of time left before the split, and the breakout preceding this drop was not particularly strong. However, the selling has not been that severe either, so we may see a quick pre-split run in a stronger market. If not, we are looking for support over the 50 day (74.25) to hold, and will see how the pattern shakes out post split.
PLAY: Aggressive: A move over the 10 day (76.56) on increased, above average volume. Stop: (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or January or March $70 calls to buy (CBH AN or CBH CN - no open interest for January, 66 for the March).

MOVI (Movie Gallery--$23.41; +0.76; optionable): Splits 3:2 effective 1-4-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/movi.html
STATUS: Another weak move on the 50 day. What started as a nice looking test of the recent breakout spun out of control on news of the president's resignation, and MOVI is now struggling to push back to the 50 day MVA (23.87), but the moves are weak, with below average volume. Friday the stock tested down toward our put buy point before reversing itself and pushing up, but once again, it stalled before reaching the 50 day and we are still looking to the downside. Still looking for a put play down to a target of 18 (intermittent support from price levels; 200 day MVA at 14.60).
PLAY: Looking for a drop through 22 on above average selling volume (down to 204,800 Friday, average 371,400), January $25 puts to buy (QLV ME).

XRAY (Dentsply Internat--$46.99; -0.17; optionable): Medical instruments. Splits 3:2 effective February 1.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
STATUS: XRAY broke to a new high last week, moving out of its extended ranging pattern at 43-46. The stock hit 48.80 last week, and has now pulled back to test the upper range of the former pattern, and the 18 day MVA (446.60). After Thursday's bounce from that support, the stock gapped up and pulled back Friday, with volume reduced to 223,800 (average 233,600). We are looking for the stock to hold and not return to its former range, moving back up going toward the split with a target of 57.
PLAY: Over Thursday's high of 47.74 on continued strong volume, with stock and/or January $45 calls to buy (XAQ AI).

CONTINUING CANDIDATES REMAINING PLAYS: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date.

Watchlist:
ACS ($98.70; +1.15): Still anticipating an announcement, but there is no clear date. Just keeps edging up the 10 day MVA (97), with volume remaining low (450,600; average 707,700). Still riding positions and keeping stops where we are comfortable.

FLIR ($44.00; +0.93): Made some nice gains last week, but moved on low volume, so we were not terribly surprised by the quick drop back. It is now holding over the 50 day at 41.93, so we will see if it can hold and set up a recovery, although it may take some time.

SLM ($83.25; -1.05): Gave up the 50 day (84.29) Friday, as volume increased slightly to 511,300 (average 663,400). SLM has tested through that support before, and quickly rebounded to strong moves up (most recently in late October), so we will see if that is what happens here.

STJ ($74.56; +1.55): Closed Friday with a weak move up through the short-term MVA's (10 day at 73.82). STJ has been trying to hang on after dropping back on a downgrade (following a suspect breakout from a small double bottom with handle), but this lower volume move may quickly stall. The 50 day is back at 71.92.

THC ($60.85; +1.15): Nice push up Friday that took THC back up into the range of the recent double tops (61). The recent fall from that level has been somewhat erratic (Friday gapped down and hit 58.30 before moving back up), so we will see if this upward momentum continues on increased, above average volume (up Friday to 1.71 million, average 2 million). The aggressive can play a move over 61 the aggressive can look at stock and/or January $55 calls to buy. Recent high at 62.78.

TJX ($37.57; +0.17): Tried to breakout last week, but couldn't make it over the recent highs (39) and is now trying to hold recent price levels and battling resistance of the short-term MVA's as volume continues to fall (down Friday to 760,000, average 1.37 million). Might need to test the 50 day at 36.21.

Plays:

EASI (Engineered Support--$33.15; -2.57; optionable): Aerospace/Defense.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/easi.html
BACKGROUND: EASI last announced a 5:4 split on 2-1-2001 with a board meeting at a price of $28.50. Before that it announced on 6-12-98 at a price of $26.50. The company has sufficient shares for a 3:2 split.
STATUS: Nice action for the put play Friday. After Thursday's relief bounce could not hold over the 200 day MVA (36.24), we were looking for a solid move through 35 to set up a put play. We got the move Friday after EASI initially tested back over the 200 day, but then fell back as volume continued to fall, but remained above average at 602,300 (average 504,100). It hit a low of 31.37 (in the range of the August-September lows) before pulling up to close, so we will watch carefully for more of a move up, which could signal an exit for this play; however, still targeting 30, and if we do get a rebound, it could set up another move down.
BUY POINT: Riding existing positions on a move down. If we get a bounce, looking for another failure at the 200 day, and a move back down on increased volume.
POSITION: January $40 puts to buy (UFE MH).

GTK (Gtech Holdings--$45.16; +1.16; optionable): Software.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gtk.html
STATUS: GTK has been a steady performer, and after taking a hit with earnings it made a solid bounce from the 50 day MVA (42.69). It bounced up to the short-term MVA's (44) Thursday on terrific volume, and continued up Friday, hitting our aggressive buy point as it moved on volume that fell sharply but was still above average at 694,300 (average 411,400). We are looking for a stronger market to support continued upward momentum, and watching for the 10 day (44.41) to provide support if we see some quick profit taking. Target: 50.
BUY POINT: From here: 44.50 on increased volume. Stop: 44 (below the 18 day).
POSITION: Stock and/or March $40 calls to buy (GTK CH - low open interest).

JEC (Jacobs Engineering--$65.08; +0.14): Heavy Construction. We are researching a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jec.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that JEC has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 2-13-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: Trying to hold on. The stock traded in a wide range Friday, testing again through the 200 day (63.83) at the low and briefly pushing up through the 10 day (66.03) at the high (resistance at the high the last 3 sessions), before falling back to close as volume fell to 421,100 (average 254,500). Valiantly holding the 200 day here with falling volume, but we are still watching for JEC to breach the 200 again and set up a put play with an initial target of the September low of 55.70 (keeping an eye on the Wednesday low of 59.30 as possible support).
PLAY: Aggressive: A drop through 63 on increased selling volume.
POSITION: January $70 puts to buy (JEC MN).

POST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:

Watchlist:

CACI ($39.18; +0.57): Split 2:1 effective 12-7-01. Made a very nice pre-split move that continued up on the split - but is now testing the move on erratic volume. Tapped down to the 18 day (37.84) Friday before pulling up to close at the 10 on decreased volume of 392,900 (average 382,300). Still watching to see if it rests a bit more (it has gained 100% since September), or mounts a move up in the next rally. Support below at 18 day (37.68) and recent consolidation highs at 35.

CHBS ($28.90; +0.88): Split 3:2 effective 12-13-01. Holding over the 10 day MVA (27.94), looking for support to continue to hold and for CHBS to form more of a handle here (in its cup dating back to May). The breakout buy point is 29.97 on volume of 600,000, with stock and/or January $26.63 calls to buy (ULH AW).

LYTS ($16.75; +0.32): Split 3:2 effective 12-7-01. Post-split LYTS has been moving in the handle to cup dating back to the early October, but it's looking rather choppy as it continues to trade on wide intraday ranges. Pushed up to close at the 10 day (16.73) Friday, on very low volume of 4,800 (average 23,700). If it can continue to hold support and move into a more stable consolidation, we are looking for the breakout with a buy point of 17.32 on volume of 37,500. Stock only.

MIK ($31.80; +0.80): Split 2:1 effective November 15. Moved the NYSE 12.12.01 - symbol change to MIK. Tried to push out of its little consolidation Friday, but volume fell to 461,800 (average 659,300) and the move stalled at 32.35. Looking for support at the 10 day (30.75; 18 day at 30.09) to continue to hold. Still looking for a longer, stable consolidation to give MIK a chance to digest its strong gains. We can wait.

WFMI ($41.45; +0.15): Split 2:1 on June 5. Closed the week with the second consecutive doji, just under the 18 day (42.16; 10 day at 42.69) and the late November consolidation, as volume remains steady and light. Still waiting to see if WFMI has stopped the bleeding, with the 50 day at 39.04.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.


us stock market
trade stock