|
|
us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: AEOS; SHOO
New Plays:
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 08/31/2006
ANDE (Andersons, Inc.--$41.01; +1.25; optionable): Agribusiness
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ande.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Working through a 16 week base showing one bottom in June and the other mid-August. ANDE bounced on strong volume off the 200 day SMA (35.35) then moved laterally this week at the 50 day EMA on low volume. It jumped higher Thursday but volume did not move with it. Looking for some more volume as it continues higher. It can cover a lot of ground when it gets moving, and it looks ready.
Volume: 536.298K Avg Volume: 873.688K
BUY POINT: $41.35 Volume=1M Target=$47.50 Stop=$39.32
POSITION: AQA LH - Dec. $40c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ande.html
Play Date: 08/31/2006
BHE (Benchmark Electronics--$24.94; 0.00; optionable): Printed circuit boards
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bhe.html
STATUS: Cup. BHE is working on the bottom of its cup base, moving more or less laterally the past 12 weeks, forming the bottom of its 16 week pattern. Bounced up off the 200 day this week and has stalled near the prior highs in this part of the patter at 25. May come back to test the 10 day EMA (24.65) and make a higher low to set it up to run higher and form the right side of its base. Strong money flow is surging higher ahead of price, and after this pause we are looking for BHE to continue higher.
Volume: 313.4K Avg Volume: 631.497K
BUY POINT: $25.52 Volume=725K Target=$29.00 Stop=$25.08
POSITION: BHE AE - Jan. $25c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bhe.html
Play Date: 08/31/2006
MTW (Manitowoc--$44.20; +1.79; optionable): Farm & construction machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtw.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Forming the handle of a 15 week base, coming off the 50 day EMA (41.94) Thursday, heading toward the breakout from its pattern. With the strong earnings from JOYG we could see the sector heat up. MTW is in a better pattern as well with money flow out in front. Need to see some strong volume as it makes the break higher. Can move fast, just what we like at this point.
Volume: 737.6K Avg Volume: 1.176M
BUY POINT: $44.58 Volume=1.2M Target=$52.95 Stop=$42.65
POSITION: MTW LI - Dec. $45c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mtw.html
Play Date: 08/31/2006
PCAR (Paccar--$54.67; +0.20; optionable): Trucks, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcar.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Looking at PCAR again as it tests the 50 day EMA (54.12) as well as its up trendline that has held since PCAR broke higher in early May. It has spent the week at this level, holding key support. Volume has jumped as it has held, indicating some buying ongoing. Nice spike Thursday as the stock showed a doji at this point. Looking for the break higher on continued solid volume to enter. A move to the target lands a 65% gain.
Volume: 1.868M Avg Volume: 1.388M
BUY POINT: $55.35 Volume=1.8M Target=$60.00 Stop=$54.00
POSITION: PAQ AK - Jan. $55c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pcar.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating, even more so in the current market. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical pattern. Many we considered have announced, but have not fared well given the market was top-heavy and ready to sell or their technical patterns were garbage.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Still recovering from the battery issues, working laterally over the 200 day SMA
AGN: Researching next date as no split announced 8-2-06.
APH: Looking to third week of October for an announcement, and it will need to rally before then to be ready.
CMI: Nice test turned to a gap lower on volume. Trying to hold the 200 day SMA to set up once more.
COG: Forecast late August. Nothing in August as COG fell to the 50 day EMA to end the week.
CPRT: Forecast late August or early September. Hearing talk of a split in late August or early September, but no definitive date.
CTSH: Tentatively mid-October.
CVD: Wildcard as no splits in CVD's history.
DHR: Some word on an announcement in the second week of September.
DVA: Mid-September
ESRX: Hearing talk of something in September, but no confirmation information yet.
FMX: Researching date. Announced earnings in late July.
LUFK: Looking at early September.
SU: Late October
TRMB: Reported earnings 7-25-06. Bouncing off the 50 day EMA but not in great shape just yet.
WYNN: Wildcard. No splits in its history but setting up.
XTO: Fading back to test the 50 day EMA
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/31/2006
VMSI (Ventana Medical Sys.--$46.64; 0.00; optionable): Medical instruments
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split 2:1 on 2-4-05 at $68.60
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vmsi.html
STATUS: Ascending base. A strong leader in its sector (and a good sector considering the time of year), VMSI is setting up for a break to a new all-time high. Nice 16 week pattern formed making higher lows roughly using the 90 day MA (45.88) as support. It just came off of that level last week and is now making a quick test of the 10 day EMA (46.52); that higher low as a stock pinches off in its pattern typically precedes a breakout move. Strong money flow is complemented by excellent accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume).
Volume: 159.244K Avg Volume: 232.176K
BUY POINT: $47.68 Volume=348K Target=$54.88 Stop=$45.95
POSITION: UMI LI - Dec. $45c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vmsi.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/19/2006
CTSH (Cognizant Technology--$69.91; -0.69; optionable): Custom IT software. No announcement w/early August earnings report. Researching next date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 4-12-04 at $47.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctsh.html
After Hours: $69.94
STATUS: Ascending base. Testing the 10 day EMA on low volume, still setting up nicely for the next break higher. Perennial market leader ready to lead on this next move higher. Tried to make the move Monday but no volume. Got a bit wild Tuesday, coming back to the 18 day EMA on the low and rebounding to close with a modest loss. Volume surged; looking for this to propel it to the next breakout. To recap: We are always cognizant of CTSH, looking for opportunity when it sets up. It has already made us some nice money and it is setting up to make us more, split or no split. CTSH broke higher form a 12 week base in early August, came back to test the move and the 50 day EMA (66.08), and then rebounded last week. It reached the early August high to end the week, and started to move laterally on lower volume. A top stock in terms of pattern and fundamentals strength.
Volume: 960.536K Avg Volume: 1.486M
BUY POINT: $71.11 Volume=1.8M Target=$79.00 Stop=$68.22
POSITION: UPU AN - Jan. $70c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ctsh.html
Play Date: 08/30/2006
TRMB (Trimble Navigation--$48.97; -0.98; optionable): GPS, robotic optical surveying instruments, etc.
BACKGROUND: TRMB announced its only split, 3:2, on 2-3-04 at $38.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trmb.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Tested back to the 10 day EMA (48.96) Thursday on very low trade, taking a breather after the strong run higher. After this we are looking for it to break higher. To recap: After a good pattern and breakout in August, TRMB got the dips two weeks back and shook us out of our position. It held the 50 day EMA (46.87) and rebounded, showing some solid volume Monday and Wednesday. Looking to step in as TRMB clears the early August high.
Volume: 289.45K Avg Volume: 441.064K
BUY POINT: $50.42 Volume=625K Target=$57.98 Stop=$48.39
POSITION: TUH BJ - Feb. $50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/trmb.html
Play Date: 08/29/2006
WYNN (Wynn Resorts--$77.41; +1.66; optionable): Las Vegas resorts and casinos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wynn.html
After Hours: $77.64
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working laterally on average volume, consolidating the strong early August move and setting up the next break higher. To recap: Nice lateral action the past two weeks as WYNN forms the handle over the 10 day EMA (75.67) to its 20 week base, looking for a new all-time high. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price and relative strength is close to the breakout as well. We are ready to move in on another good price day on a shot of volume as it showed Monday. This is a 'sin' stock, and thus it is likely to do well even if the market overall suffers some September dips.
Volume: 1.096M Avg Volume: 1.204M
BUY POINT: $77.65 Volume=1.2M Target=$88.00 Stop=$75.00
POSITION: UWY LO - Dec. $75c (59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wynn.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/29/2006
CHAP (Chaparral Steel Company--$71.42; +0.31; optionable): Industrial metals & minerals. Splits 2:1 on 9-5-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chap.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Nice doji Thursday on low volume over the 10 day EMA (70.49) as CHAP continues its quiet lateral move, setting up the next break higher. Just need to see more of that good volume it showed Tuesday. To recap: The split is the day after Labor Day and CHAP is starting the pre-split move, rallying Tuesday on a good shot of above average volume. Looking to jump in, ride it up as far as it will take us through Friday, take some of the gain off the table, and then keep some to ride through the split.
Volume: 271.742K Avg Volume: 500.82K
BUY POINT: $72.05 Volume=500K Target=$79.00 Stop=$69.92
POSITION: ZHQ AO - Jan $75c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chap.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/30/2006
QSII (Quality Systems--$40.10; +0.47; optionable): Healthcare information systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qsii.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Started higher Thursday but no volume. Solid but want to see the volume come in a bit better. To recap: QSII is setting up for another buy after the strong move two weeks back. Nice test of the 18 day EMA (38.78) Tuesday and then a rebound. Solid leader and really like this test of near support and smart bounce. Want to see some volume come in as it breaks higher once more; that was lacking Wednesday.
Volume: 169.539K Avg Volume: 415.691K
BUY POINT: New: ON a continued move on volume (orig. $40.05) Volume=425K Target=$45.00 Stop=$38.65
POSITION: QCR LH - Dec. $40c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qsii.html
Play Date: 08/30/2006
SPIL (Siliconware Precision--$5.90; -0.10; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spil.html
After Hours: $5.79
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Tested lower to the 18 day EMA Thursday and rebounded on strong volume, but was still down for the session. Good recovery showing buyers coming back in, but lower after hours. Just being patient for it to show the breakout. To recap: Forming a nice pattern the past four months as part of a larger 8 month base, the first four months tried the breakout but failed, and now the second part of the pattern, kind of a base on base where the sellers are really wrung out. Good volume the past week as SPIL tested the 50 day EMA (5.60) and then jumped higher. Nice price and volume move Wednesday, and SPIL looks ready to make the breakout move.
Volume: 3.61M Avg Volume: 1.399M
BUY POINT: $6.15 Volume=1.6M Target=$7.40 Stop=$5.75
POSITION: SRD LA - Dec. $5c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/spil.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAY:
Play Date: 08/26/2006
ASMI (ASM International--$17.44; 0.00; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asmi.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working laterally on low volume in its nice handle over the 200 day SMA (17.14). Just being patient for the breakout. To recap: Excellent handle formed last week with a tight, low volume pullback to the 200 day SMA after surging through that level two weeks back on strong volume. Nice handle to the 16 week base, holding the 200 day SMA and ready to follow the rising money flow higher. Plenty of room to run upside, and it can do it quickly as demonstrated on the last two legs higher; just what we want for this week.
Volume: 99.496K Avg Volume: 191.033K
BUY POINT: $17.55 Volume=285K Target=$20.97 Stop=$16.95
POSITION: IQB LW - Dec. $17.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/asmi.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
stock split
|
