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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: AEOS; CAM; CHAP; PCAR; VIP
New Plays:
New Pre-Split Play:
Play Date: 09/02/2006
PCU (Southern Copper--$93.10; +0.78; optionable): Copper. Splits 2:1 on 10-3-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcu.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. PCU formed a reverse head and shoulders from mid-May to late July, borke higher, but then immediately fell back to test the 50 day EMA (89.68). It held that level the entire month of August, then bumped higher to end the week. Strong stock and metals are on the upswing. Held 90 well, and looking for a run up to 100 and then toward the early May higher near 105.
Volume: 637.1K Avg Volume: 1.522M
BUY POINT: $93.75 Volume=1.7M Target=$104.00 Stop=$90.85
POSITION: PCU LS - Dec. $95c (51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pcu.html
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 09/02/2006
AMX (America Movil--$38.35; +1.04; optionable): Wireless telecom in Latin America
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amx.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. We took the rest of our gain on AMX when it got overeager to the downside Thursday, but said we would be back. Well, AMX rebounded Friday on a very strong shot of volume, bouncing up off the 18 day EMA (37.26). Ready to move back on as it continues higher.
Volume: 8.257M Avg Volume: 5.128M
BUY POINT: $38.75 Volume=7.7M Target=$44.95 Stop=$37.15
POSITION: AMX AG - Jan. $35c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amx.html
Play Date: 09/02/2006
BOOM (Dynamic Materials--$36.13; 0.00; optionable): Industrial metal coatings
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/boom.html
STATUS: Cup. May be starting to form a handle to its 16 week base, coming back Thursday and Friday after a strong price and volume move Wednesday that took BOOM over the interim highs in the base at 35. It may come on back to test 35 or the 10 day EMA (34.59) and form a handle; that would give a great entry point. We will, however, start some positions on a continued move higher this week and then see if we get the test.
Volume: 479.212K Avg Volume: 752.129K
BUY POINT: From the Friday close: $36.68. On a test of 35, 35.42 on the rebound. Volume=800K Target=$42.50 Stop=$34.48
POSITION: QCB LG - Dec. $35c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/boom.html
Play Date: 09/02/2006
PPDI (Pharmaceutical Product Dev.--$38.66; +0.54; optionable): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ppdi.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Taking another run at PPDI after a short but sweet 7 week base formed, making the lows of two legs on the 50 day EMA (37.46) and forming a nice handle last week at the 18 day EMA (38.03). Good action Friday on the best volume in three weeks. This is part of a larger 18 week ascending base; the accumulation in this last part is a solid 3 to 0. Like this one for several reasons: right sector if market turns defensive; a top stock in the market and its sector, excellent fundamentals, excellent pattern.
Volume: 399.774K Avg Volume: 552.165K
BUY POINT: $39.22 Volume=725K Target=$46.95 Stop=$37.89
POSITION: PJQ AU - Jan. $37.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ppdi.html
New Leader Play:
Play Date: 09/02/2006
FORM (Formfactor--$47.63; -0.67; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/form.html
STATUS: Test breakout. FORM is making the test of a strong move Wednesday that broke it higher from a ragged 7 week base. Strong move on strong volume and a nice test underway for this leading stock. May come all the way back to the 10 day EMA (46.63) to give a full test and a very nice entry point, but given the new season starts next week we will be ready to move in if it jumps from this level.
Volume: 970.961K Avg Volume: 923.339K
BUY POINT: $46.89 Volume=1.1M Target=$53.95 Stop=$45.42
POSITION: AFU AI - Jan. $45c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/form.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating, even more so in the current market. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical pattern. Many we considered have announced, but have not fared well given the market was top-heavy and ready to sell or their technical patterns were garbage.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Forecast 10-18-06 after the close. Continues over the 200 day SMA as it recovers from the battery issues
AGN: 9-20-06 at 10:00PT.
APH: Looking to third week of October for an announcement, and it will need to rally before then to be ready.
CMI: Tentative date is 10-31-06. Still holding the 200 day SMA in a lateral move.
COG: Tentative: 10-26-06. Nothing in August as COG fell to the 50 day EMA. Starting to bounce.
CPRT: Nothing to end August, but possibly early September. Hearing talk of a split in early September, but no definitive date.
CTSH: 10-31-06
CVD: Wildcard as no splits in CVD's history.
DHR: Some word on an announcement in the second week of September.
DVA: Mid-September
ESRX: Hearing talk of something in September, but no confirmation information yet.
FMX: Tentatively set at 10-27-06
LUFK: Looking at early September.
SU: Forecast 10-5-06 with a board meeting
TRMB: Reported earnings 7-25-06. Bouncing off the 50 day EMA but not in great shape just yet.
VMSI: Forecast tentatively 10-27-06
WYNN: Wildcard. No splits in its history but tentatively looking at late October, early November.
XTO: Forecast 10-19-06. Fading back to test the 50 day EMA
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 09/02/2006
SRCL (Stericycle--$66.56; 0.00; optionable): Waste management. For now tentatively set for 10-25-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/srcl.html
STATUS: SRCL is making at higher low at the 18 day EMA (66.14) after coming off the 50 day EMA (65.52) to start the week where it made another higher low. Choppy but solid 20 week base that used the 200 day SMA (63.30) on the May and July low as support. Positive accumulation during the base complements rising money flow. Looking for SRCL to continue working on its base and deliver a solid breakout over the top of the base at 68. It has put in the time, it is very quiet, and that often precedes the breakout move.
Volume: 89.879K Avg Volume: 254.203K
BUY POINT: $68.21 Volume=381K Target=$76.75 Stop=$66.15
POSITION: URL BN - Sept. $70c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/srcl.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/19/2006
CTSH (Cognizant Technology--$69.74; -0.17; optionable): Custom IT software. No announcement w/early August earnings report. Researching next date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 4-12-04 at $47.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctsh.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Continues working laterally along the 10 day EMA (69.85), setting up for the next break higher. Perennial market leader. To recap: We are always cognizant of CTSH, looking for opportunity when it sets up. It has already made us some nice money and it is setting up to make us more, split or no split. CTSH broke higher form a 12 week base in early August, came back to test the move and the 50 day EMA (66.86), and then rebounded. It reached the early August high and started to move laterally on lower volume. A top stock in terms of pattern and fundamentals strength.
Volume: 846.962K Avg Volume: 1.456M
BUY POINT: $71.11 Volume=1.8M Target=$79.00 Stop=$68.22
POSITION: UPU AN - Jan. $70c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ctsh.html
Play Date: 08/10/2006
ESRX (Express Scripts--$84.21; +0.13; optionable): Mail order prescription service
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 5-25-05 at $94.70.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Broke higher last week, gapping higher Wednesday, testing the 10 day EMA (82.85) Friday, and then rebounding for a gain. Looks on the verge to make the break higher. To recap: We are early on ESRX, but would rather be early with this move that is underway. Reported earnings on 7-26-06, and that kept the base going. Breaking higher through the 200 day SMA (81.67) the second week of August, clearing interim resistance in its larger 7 month cup base. Excellent volume as it started higher on this move, and then a nice, low volume in the middle of the month. After that rest it is trying to make the break higher. Looking to move in and take some positions as it resumes the move higher. Moved up the buy point to allow for the resistance that built up during this lateral move.
Volume: 768.508K Avg Volume: 1.775M
BUY POINT: $84.88 Volume=2M Target=$94.90 Stop=$81.78
POSITION: XTQ KQ - Nov. $85c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/esrx.html
Play Date: 08/31/2006
VMSI (Ventana Medical Sys.--$46.45; -0.19; optionable): Medical instruments
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split 2:1 on 2-4-05 at $68.60
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vmsi.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Still testing, coming back Friday to tap the 18 day EMA (46.27) on the low and rebounding some. Solid action as volume remained low, showing no big sellers. It is now set up to launch off the near term support. To recap: A strong leader in its sector (and a good sector considering the time of year), VMSI is setting up for a break to a new all-time high. Nice 16 week pattern formed making higher lows roughly using the 90 day MA (45.94) as support. It just came off of that level last week and is now making a quick test of the 10 day and 18 day EMA; that higher low as a stock pinches off in its pattern typically precedes a breakout move. Strong money flow is complemented by excellent accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume).
Volume: 104.096K Avg Volume: 231.438K
BUY POINT: $47.68 Volume=348K Target=$54.88 Stop=$45.95
POSITION: UMI LI - Dec. $45c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vmsi.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/31/2006
BHE (Benchmark Electronics--$25.25; +0.31; optionable): Printed circuit boards
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bhe.html
STATUS: Cup. Good action Friday, but no volume to pushe BHE to the breakaway move. Looking for stronger trade as it continues this week. To recap: BHE is working on the bottom of its cup base, moving more or less laterally the past 12 weeks, forming the bottom of its 16 week pattern. Bounced up off the 200 day this week and has stalled near the prior highs in this part of the patter at 25. Has made the test of the 10 day EMA we were looking for, making a higher low to set it up to run higher and form the right side of its base. Strong money flow is surging higher ahead of price, and after this pause we are looking for BHE to continue higher.
Volume: 335.5K Avg Volume: 624.517K
BUY POINT: $25.52 Volume=725K Target=$29.00 Stop=$25.08
POSITION: BHE AE - Jan. $25c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bhe.html
Play Date: 08/30/2006
SPIL (Siliconware Precision--$6.01; +0.11; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spil.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still set up to make the move, bumping against the breakout at 6. Volume fell back from the big Thursday surge, but was still average on the rebound. It is there to make the move. To recap: Forming a nice pattern the past four months as part of a larger 8 month base, the first four months tried the breakout but failed, and now the second part of the pattern, kind of a base on base where the sellers are really wrung out. Good volume the past week as SPIL tested the 50 day EMA (5.61) and then jumped higher. Nice price and volume move Wednesday, and SPIL looks ready to make the breakout move.
Volume: 1.425M Avg Volume: 1.435M
BUY POINT: $6.15 Volume=1.6M Target=$7.40 Stop=$5.75
POSITION: SRD LA - Dec. $5c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/spil.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAY:
Play Date: 08/26/2006
ASMI (ASM International--$17.40; -0.04; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asmi.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Another doji at the 10 day EMA (17.25) on continued below average volume as ASMI moves laterally, setting up for the next upside move off the 200 day SMA (17.16). To recap: Excellent handle formed last week with a tight, low volume pullback to the 200 day SMA after surging through that level two weeks back on strong volume. Nice handle to the 16 week base, holding the 200 day SMA and ready to follow the rising money flow higher. Plenty of room to run upside, and it can do it quickly as demonstrated on the last two legs higher; just what we want for this week.
Volume: 62.922K Avg Volume: 181.405K
BUY POINT: $17.55 Volume=285K Target=$20.97 Stop=$16.95
POSITION: IQB LW - Dec. $17.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/asmi.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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