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trade stock, stock recommendation
Beign part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: QSII
Strong plays:
1) AMX: Coming right back after the test.
2) ARD: Ditto
3) FORM: Nice breakout test setting up the next buy.
4) INFA: Ready for the break.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 09/02/2006
AMX (America Movil--$38.35; +1.04; optionable): Wireless telecom in Latin America
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amx.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. We took the rest of our gain on AMX when it got overeager to the downside Thursday, but said we would be back. Well, AMX rebounded Friday on a very strong shot of volume, bouncing up off the 18 day EMA (37.26). Ready to move back on as it continues higher.
Volume: 8.257M Avg Volume: 5.128M
BUY POINT: $38.75 Volume=7.7M Target=$44.95 Stop=$37.15
POSITION: AMX AG - Jan. $35c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amx.html
Play Date: 09/02/2006
ARD (Arena Resources--$39.77; +1.17; optionable): Oil & gas drilling, exploration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ard.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. We took some solid gain on ARD on the last run, and then it came back last week to test the move, gapping below the 18 day EMA (38.65) on the low but rebounding for a solid gain on rising, above average volume. It broke out from a 14 week reverse head and shoulders in late July, and this is the second test of the 18 day EMA on that run. Strong stocks make three to five runs off the short term moving averages after the breakout, and that leaves ARD in a good buying position with plenty of upside room to make us some solid money.
Volume: 211.3K Avg Volume: 185.482K
BUY POINT: $39.89 Volume=225K Target=$47.88 Stop=$38.48
POSITION: ARD AH - Jan. $40c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ard.html
Play Date: 09/02/2006
EQIX (Equinix--$58.83; +1.16; optionable): Telecom networks, interconnection services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eqix.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice 4 month base has set up with a solid 2 week handle setting up the breakout move. Excellent set up, holding the 200 day SMA (51.38) on the June through August lows, then surging higher mid-August and breaking out of the reverse head and shoulders formed at the base of its pattern. Strong money flow is leading EQIX higher. Just going to be patient and let EQIX show us the break higher on strong volume.
Volume: 224.064K Avg Volume: 487.3K
BUY POINT: $59.78 Volume=731K Target=$70.95 Stop=$57.21
POSITION: FQS LL - Dec. $60c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/eqix.html
Play Date: 09/02/2006
EZPW (Ezcorp--$39.83; +0.56; optionable): Pawn shops
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ezpw.html
STATUS: Cup. Made us some good money in its June run, and after gapping higher in early July, EZPW spent August filling the gap and forming a new base, using the 90 day MA (35.71) as support. It has come up off of that level, rising to some resistance at 40 last week. 35.71) as support. It has come up off of that level, rising to some resistance at 40 last week. Looking for volume to ramp up as it continues through 40 on a burst in volume.
Volume: 359.872K Avg Volume: 482.047K
BUY POINT: $40.21 Volume=525K Target=$46.95 Stop=$38.38
POSITION: AMX AH - Jan. $40c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ezpw.html
Play Date: 09/02/2006
FORM (Formfactor--$47.63; -0.67; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/form.html
STATUS: Test breakout. FORM is making the test of a strong move Wednesday that broke it higher from a ragged 7 week base. Strong move on strong volume and a nice test underway for this leading stock. May come all the way back to the 10 day EMA (46.63) to give a full test and a very nice entry point, but given the new season starts next week we will be ready to move in if it jumps from this level.
Volume: 970.961K Avg Volume: 923.339K
BUY POINT: $46.89 Volume=1.1M Target=$53.95 Stop=$45.42
POSITION: AFU AI - Jan. $45c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/form.html
Play Date: 09/02/2006
QCOM (Qualcom--$38.35; +0.68; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qcom.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. QCOM gapped out of a 3.5 month downtrend in mid-August, rallying up to the 50 day EMA (37.87). It moved laterally along that level until last week, banging through on the intraday highs and then gapping through and holding the level Friday on news the BRCM antitrust suit against QCOM was dismissed. So, we have a trend reversal gap on strong volume, a lateral test of that move, and now it looks like another break higher coming. Want to see more trade as it starts up; volume Friday was better, but still well below average volume.
Volume: 13.679M Avg Volume: 17.351M
BUY POINT: $38.56 Volume=18M Target=$44.50 Stop=$37.68
POSITION: AAO AU - Jan. $37.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/qcom.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/21/2006
BRKS (Brooks Automation--$13.89; -0.01; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brks.html
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. Still laying in the weeks around the 200 day SMA (13.77), showing a tight doji on the candlestick chart Friday as BRKS prepares for the next break upside. To recap: Showing some life here as volume picks up as it moves off the 200 day SMA with strong money flow surging higher ahead of price. Kind of a cup with handle here, and ready to move in as BRKS continues higher on some continued stronger volume.
Volume: 679.279K Avg Volume: 675.274K
BUY POINT: New: $14.26 (orig. $14.12) Volume=900K Target=$17.50 Stop=$13.33
POSITION: BQE AV - Jan. $12.50c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brks.html
Play Date: 08/26/2006
INFA (Informatica--$14.71; +0.07; optionable): Enterprise data integration software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/infa.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Still ready for the breakout, holding over the 10 day EMA (14.44) on the intraday lows and rebounding off that level to close. Just being patient and waiting for the breakout move. To recap: INFA has cleared the mid-August highs and is looking for a breakaway move from its 15 week reverse head and shoulders that formed at the bottom of its 20 week cup base. Nicely formed pattern with plenty of upside without a breakout and the ability to move quickly when it breaks out, just what we want for this week.
Volume: 585.176K Avg Volume: 1.312M
BUY POINT: New: $14.85 (orig. $14.71) Volume=2M Target=$16.95 Stop=$13.68
POSITION: UYF AC - Jan. $15c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/infa.html
Play Date: 08/30/2006
MKSI (MKS Instruments--$21.01; +0.12; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mksi.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Still holding the 200 day SMA (20.90) on the close after reaching mush lower intraday Friday. Still ready to make the move higher after clearing this key point. To recap: Volume has kicked up as MKSI starts banging at the breakout point from its 12 week pattern that formed at the bottom of a 4 month cup. This pattern often forms at the bottom of a cup and sets up the run higher up the right side. Looking to move in as it makes the break on strong volume.
Volume: 252.519K Avg Volume: 361.888K
BUY POINT: $21.32 Volume=450K Target=$24.50 Stop=$20.29
POSITION: QQB AD - Jan. $20c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mksi.html
Play Date: 08/28/2006
MVSN (Macrovision--$23.18; -0.10; optionable): Digital lifecycle value management software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mvsn.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Down to the 10 day EMA (23.04) to end the week, fading on very low volume as it puts the finishing touches on the handle to its base. Solid pattern, good handle, getting close to the breakout. To recap: Sweet little 15 week pattern has formed over the 200 day SMA (20.18), using that as support for the two legs in its double bottom. Big surge on volume in mid-August formed the right leg as it reported strong earnings, and now the lateral test the past week, forming the handle that shakes out the sellers from the last run . Volume jumped back above average last Monday as MVSN tapped at the 10 day EMA on the low and rebounded. It is showing the right action, just have to be patient and wait for the breakout move.
Volume: 368.395K Avg Volume: 659.333K
BUY POINT: New: 23.94 (orig. $23.65) Volume=990K Target=$26.75 Stop=$22.48
POSITION: MVU AX - Jan. $22.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mvsn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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