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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: DRIV; EQIX; EZPW; FORM; FSL; IDXX; MGI; MVSN; NITE; PRXL; QCOM WEBX
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 09/05/2006
DRQ (Dril-Quip--$80.09; +2.09; optionable): Engineered offshore drilling and production equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drq.html
STATUS: Test trendline. DRQ has tested the trendline (77), tapping it on the Tuesday low once more and bouncing on rising though still below average volume. It was energized by the CHV Jack extension well, rallying up to the 50 day SMA (80.26) Tuesday where it stalled out for the day. This is its fourth bounce higher on this trend and stocks usually present 4 to 5 such bounces. Looking to play this move but want to see some more volume as it continues higher.
Volume: 339.3K Avg Volume: 453.138K
BUY POINT: $80.38 Volume=500K Target=$95.00 Stop=$77.00
POSITION: DRQ LP - Dec. $80c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/drq.html
Play Date: 09/05/2006
PFWD (Phase Forward--$12.00; +0.29; no options): Integrated enterprise software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfwd.html
STATUS: Cup. PFWD has formed something of a cup or a reverse hand and shoulders the past 14 weeks, but whatever you want to call it, the stock is set up quite nicely to break higher. It used the 200 day SMA (10.77) as support for the two shoulders, breaking higher last week up to the neckline at 12, but lacked the volume to punch on through. Tuesday volume jumped above average for the first time in 5 weeks as PFWD banged up into the breakout point. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price and accumulation is an excellent 5 to 1 (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume); plenty of buying that is ready to break the stock higher for a run at, yes, a new all-time high.
Volume: 270.585K Avg Volume: 212.215K
BUY POINT: $12.25 Volume=275K Target=$14.00 Stop=$1.42
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pfwd.html
New buy point on a current position:
Play Date: 09/05/2006
NVDA (Nvidia--$28.50; +0.61; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Going back to the well again on this market leader as it comes back to once more test the 10 day EMA (27.74) and starts to bounce. This is the second move off of this level since breaking out of its 14 week cup with handle base in mid-August. Strong stocks such as this usually give us 4 to 5 such runs so we are looking to move in as it continues the bounce off the 10 day it started Tuesday.
Volume: 9.077M Avg Volume: 10.412M
BUY POINT: $28.72 Volume=10M Target=$32.95 Stop=$27.68
POSITION: UVA LY - Dec. $27.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nvda.html
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
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http://www.technicaltraders.com/ttr/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABAX 08/02 Asc Bse 23.99 +0.08 23.30 27.75 313K 637K 23.33
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing another doji on much stronger above average volume. May be ready for next move up.
ABMD 08/30 Asc Tri 14.98 +0.27 14.85 17.89 1.1M 125K 14.08
Entered today.
AMX 09/02 Test BO 38.14 -0.21 38.75 44.95 2.8M 7.7M 37.15
Buy Not Issued.
ARD 09/02 Test 18 40.07 +0.30 39.90 47.88 202K 225K 38.55
Entered today.
BRCM 08/21 Test 50 29.06 +1.11 29.54 36.00 13M 20M 28.78
Current. Bounced on low volume to hold the 10 day MVA. Moving up after testing the 18 day MVA.
BRKS 08/21 Test 20 13.78 -0.11 14.12 17.50 868K 900K 13.33
Buy Not Hit.
COHR 08/22 DB hdl 36.25 +0.06 36.74 43.00 170K 350K 35.15
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 35.77 at the intraday low and rallied back showing a doji just above the 10 day MVA on rising volume. Doji may indicate stock is ready to breakout.
DRIV 08/24 Test BO 50.07 +1.79 47.86 54.75 2M 1.2M 48.00
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA for a great move on excellent volume surge. Stock has not been this high since 2001.
DRIV 08/05 DB hdl 50.07 +1.79 45.72 57.50 2M 1.2M 48.00
Current.
EQIX 09/02 Cup hdl 61.69 +2.86 61.33 70.95 528K 731K 59.38
Entered today.
EZPW 09/02 Cup 41.06 +1.23 40.83 47.50 471K 525K 39.04
Entered today. Nice move up on rising volume.
FORM 09/02 Test BO 49.20 +1.57 46.89 53.95 1.9M 1.1M 45.42
Buy Not Issued. Gapped higher without coming back further to the 10
day EMA. Tested intraday & rebounded, filling the gap.
FSL 08/10 Test 50 31.39 +0.70 29.70 33.95 3.5M 2.5M 30.22
Current. Gapped up at the open and continued to move up for a nice gain on excellent volume surge. Moving up after testing the 50 day MVA.
GILD 07/12 Cup hdl 62.86 -0.47 63.87 74.95 2.5M 7M 62.78
Current. Pullback holding the 18 day MVA on rising, but below average volume. May continue to test back to 18 day MVA.
HITT 08/22 Test BO 45.67 +1.82 41.05 47.95 384K 400K 44.32
Current.
HITT 08/14 Asc Bse 45.67 +1.82 38.57 44.95 384K 400K 44.88
HLEX 08/26 Cup 30.90 +0.30 30.46 36.00 121K 300K 30.15
Current. Tapped 30.38 at the intraday low and rallied back on low volume. Continue with the uptrend.
HMSY 07/22 Asc Bse 13.82 -0.59 11.85 13.85 501K 225K 13.85
Current. Volatile session. Tapped 14.72 at the intraday high, but gave it all back holding the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Should hold here.
IDXX 08/28 BO 93.79 +1.45 92.24 99.00 164K 155K 92.00
Current. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on slightly above average volume.
INFA 08/26 Rv H&S 14.68 -0.03 14.71 16.95 551K 2M 13.68
Buy Not Issued.
LUFK 08/09 PreAnn 64.63 +0.66 65.25 76.00 67K 225K 62.72
Buy Not Issued. Moving up after testing the 18 day MVA on low volume. Still in the pattern.
MGI 08/30 Dbl btm 32.51 +0.82 31.39 36.00 562K 730K 31.50
Current. Explosive move on much stronger, but average volume. Moving up after testing the 200 day MVA.
MKSI 08/30 Rv H&S 20.92 -0.09 21.32 24.50 236K 450K 20.29
Buy Not Hit.
MOLX 08/28 Cup hdl 37.00 +0.63 36.72 40.95 665K 550K 36.25
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on stronger above average volume. Moving up on rising volume after routine pullback.
MOLX 08/10 Test 50 37.00 +0.63 34.72 40.95 665K 625K 36.44
Current.
MTW 08/31 DB hdl 45.56 +1.52 44.58 52.95 789K 1.2M 42.65
Buy Not Issued. Although rising, not enough volume was there to enter the play. Will let test back.
MVSN 08/28 DB hdl 24.35 +1.17 24.14 26.95 1.3M 990K 23.22
Entered today.
NGPS 08/12 Test BO 43.90 -0.05 41.48 48.88 178K 190K 44.45
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back holding just above the 18 day MVA on stronger above average volume. May hold here before rebounding
NITE 07/29 Cup hdl 18.01 +0.39 16.68 19.98 2.7M 2M 17.50
Current. Great move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Has not reached this level since 2001.
NVDA 08/23 Test BO 28.50 +0.61 26.58 31.00 9.1M 10M 28.32
Current. Tapped 27.57 at the intraday low and rallied back on low volume. Moving up after typical pullback.
NVDA 08/08 Test 20 28.50 +0.61 25.45 31.00 9.1M 12M 28.32
Current.
NVLS 08/23 Rv H&S 27.73 +0.18 27.15 30.92 4.1M 2.9M 27.00
Current.
PLCM 08/22 Test BO 23.99 +0.11 24.24 28.45 665K 1.4M 23.71
Current. Moving up after testing the 10 day MVA on low volume.
PLMD 08/28 Cup hdl 40.94 -0.16 39.68 45.75 131K 423K 39.78
PRXL 08/19 Test BO 34.45 +1.30 32.24 36.95 523K 285K 32.88
Current.
QCOM 09/02 Test 50 39.19 +0.84 39.16 44.50 16M 18M 37.88
Entered today.
QSII 08/30 Test BO 40.89 -0.29 41.29 46.70 164K 425K 39.00
Current. Ease back tapping 40.41 at the intraday low and rallied back on low volume. Typical pullback.
QSII 08/09 Test BO 40.89 -0.29 37.45 45.00 164K 500K 39.00
Current.
SEIC 08/14 Asc Bse 51.93 +0.27 50.72 58.50 315K 750K 51.31
Current. Tapped 51.04 at the intraday low and rallied back on low volume. Moving up after testing the 18 day MVA on low volume.
STXS 08/29 Test 20 10.78 -0.08 11.33 13.55 150K 425K 10.65
Current. Showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on low volume. Should be ready to rebound from here.
TRMB 08/30 Test 50 49.20 +0.32 50.22 57.98 297K 625K 48.39
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 48.38 at the intraday low and rallied back on rising volume. Still in the pattern.
TYL 08/12 Test BO 13.22 +0.16 12.38 14.85 353K 210K 12.96
Current.
TZOO 08/17 Dbl btm 30.10 +0.35 32.04 36.72 415K 700K 33.15
Current.
WEBX 08/22 Test BO 36.66 +0.80 36.64 41.95 578K 690K 36.05
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back for a nice move on much stronger, but below average volume. Moving up on rising volume after routine pullback.
WEBX 08/15 Asc Bse 36.66 +0.80 35.20 41.95 578K 725K 36.05
Current.
WYNN 08/23 DB hdl 76.46 -0.55 75.96 82.50 1.1M 1.2M 74.89
Current.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
BP 08/31 H&S 68.60 +0.60 67.93 65.90 3.6M 3.5M 68.55
Buy Not Issued. Bounced on much stronger volume to hold the 10 day MVA. May continue to test up to the 18 day MVA (69.12)
EXPD 08/24 Put 40.92 +0.07 38.88 36.55 1.4M 2.2M 39.35
Current. Broke through the 18 day MVA, but faded back showing a tight doji on the 18 day MVA. Should hold here and move down.
JBLU 08/19 Put 10.36 +0.12 10.21 9.50 3.1M 4.5M 10.25
Current. Broke through the 18 day MVA (10.55), but faded back holding the 18 day MVA on rising volume. Still in downtrend.
JEF 08/24 Put 25.08 +0.07 24.15 22.10 728K 895K 24.55
Current. Bounced to hold the 18 day MVA on below average volume. Should hold here before moving down.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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