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us stock market, stock watch
Begin part 2 of 2
Full report issues Thursday.
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: BP; EXPD; JBLU
New Plays:
Downside:
Play Date: 09/06/2006
TTC (Toro--$39.58; -0.90; optionable): Lawnmowers, small tools
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttc.html
STATUS: Put. TTC is in a continuing downtrend after peaking in April on a climax surge. It formed a head and shoulders from March through June and then broke lower in early July, starting the continuing trend lower, bouncing down the 18 day EMA (40.24). It spent the last leg of the summer rally rebounding up to the 18 day resistance on lower and lower volume. It tried to break through Friday and Tuesday but then rolled over Wednesday on rising, though still below average volume. Looks ready to continue the trend lower after this low volume bounce higher, following tanking money flow lower. A move to the target lands us a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 375.6K Avg Volume: 438.418K
BUY POINT: $39.45 Volume=445K Target=$37.90 Stop=$39.95
POSITION: TTC VH - Oct. $40p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ttc.html
Play Date: 09/06/2006
XPRSA (U.S. Xpress--$19.45; -1.10; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xprsa.html
STATUS: Head and shoulders. XPRSA has formed a broad top May through August, a bearish head and shoulders pattern that is starting the break lower on rising trade. XPRSA has already made us money as it set up this pattern. Wednesday XPRSA broke below the 200 day SMA (20.00), cracking below the neckline of the pattern. Looking to move in as XPRSA continues lower and follows the diving money flow lower. A move to the target lands us a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 187.639K Avg Volume: 241.066K
BUY POINT: $19.40 Volume=245K Target=$17.85 Stop=$20.05
POSITION: SUA VD - Oct. $20p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xprsa.html
New buy point on current post-split position:
Play Date: 09/05/2006
NVDA (Nvidia--$27.07; -1.43; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
STATUS: Breakout test. NVDA sold back further Wednesday on lower, below average volume. It undercut the 10 day EMA (27.62), but still closed above the 18 day EMA (26.76). If it finds support there it is ready to rebound and continue the breakout move. To recap: Going back to the well again on this market leader as it comes back to once more test the mid-August breakout from its 14 week cup with handle base. This is the second move off of this level since the breakout. Strong stocks such as this usually give us 4 to 5 such runs so we are looking to move in as it continues the bounce off the 10 day it started Tuesday.
Volume: 8.057M Avg Volume: 10.403M
BUY POINT: New: $27.75 (orig. $28.72) Volume=10M Target=$32.95 Stop=$27.68
POSITION: UVA LY - Dec. $27.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nvda.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
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http://stocksplits.net/ssr/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri =Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AAPL 09/05 Cup hdl 70.03 -1.45 71.65 79.95 35M 29M 69.82
Buy Not Issued.
AAPL 08/21 Cup hdl 70.03 -1.45 68.12 78.00 35M 40M 69.88
Current. Pullback on lower, but strong volume. Still in good shape.
AEOS 08/10 Cup hdl 39.13 -0.41 35.46 42.45 2.9M 2.5M 38.88
Current. Gapped way down at the open, but rallied to recover much of the loss on slightly above average volume. Showing strength coming off the day's low 38.46
AGN 07/25 PreAnn 112.51 -1.12 109.32 117.50 685K 1.5M 112.88
Trailing Stop. Gapped down to hold the 18 day MVA.
AMX 09/02 Test BO 36.55 -1.59 38.75 44.95 3.6M 7.7M 37.15
Buy Not Issued. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop.
ANDE 08/31 Dbl btm 39.68 -3.01 41.35 47.50 1.1M 1M 39.32
Buy Not Issued. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop.
ASMI 08/26 Cup hdl 17.27 -0.29 17.55 20.97 157K 285K 16.95
Buy Not Issued. Pullback on average volume to hold the 10 day MVA. Still forming the handle.
BHE 08/31 Cup 24.06 -1.09 25.52 29.00 566K 725K 25.08
Buy Not Hit. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop.
BOOM 09/02 Cup 37.31 -0.05 36.68 42.50 808K 800K 34.48
Buy Not Issued. Pullback on slightly above average volume. Will let pullback.
BRCM 08/21 Test 50 27.48 -1.58 29.54 36.00 17M 20M 28.78
Current. Pullback holding the simple 50 day MVA on stronger, but average volume. Looking for a rebound from here.
CAM 08/19 Test 50 48.39 -2.16 49.45 56.50 2.3M 2.4M 48.88
Exited.
CERN 08/23 DB hdl 46.04 -1.19 46.58 53.55 494K 1.4M 44.62
Buy Not Issued. Ease back holding the 10 day MVA on low volume. Still forming the handle.
CHAP 08/29 PreSplt 38.03 -0.77 36.03 39.50 1.6M 500K 35.60
Typical pullback on such a nice run.
CPRT 08/24 PreAnn 27.63 -0.31 28.18 33.50 291K 550K 27.32
Current.
CTRP 08/26 Cup 52.13 -0.57 51.65 57.89 140K 601K 51.11
Current.
CTSH 08/19 PreAnn 69.81 -1.69 71.11 79.00 1.1M 1.8M 68.22
Buy Not Issued. Gapped down and continued to move down on lower below average volume. Looking for a rebound off the 18 day MVA (69.53)
CTSH 07/28 PreAnn 69.81 -1.69 66.12 77.95 1.1M 2.4M 68.45
Current.
DHR 08/22 PreAnn 65.58 -1.24 67.05 74.95 1.4M 2M 65.15
Current. Pullback holding just below the 18 day MVA on low volume. Testing the breakout. Looking for stock to rebound from (65.41)
DRIV 08/24 Test BO 48.96 -1.11 47.86 54.75 761K 1.2M 48.00
Current. Ease back on below average volume. Still in uptrend.
DRQ 09/05 Test 50 77.70 -2.39 80.38 95.00 498K 500K 77.00
Buy Not Hit. Pullback on stronger above average volume managing to hold at some support below the 50 day MVA. Should hold here.
DVA 08/24 PreAnn 56.01 -1.33 57.55 65.95 864K 1.1M 57.00
Fell thru the 18 day EMA and it was time to close it out.
ESRX 08/10 PreAnn 81.98 -1.56 84.88 94.90 740K 2M 81.78
Buy Not Issued. Ease back holding the 18 day MVA on low volume. Still in the pattern.
FORM 09/02 Test BO 46.68 -2.52 46.89 53.95 1.5M 1.1M 45.42
Buy Not Issued. Pullback on lower but strong volume. Still in the pattern. Looking for a rebound from 46.33
GDI 09/05 DB hdl 36.58 -1.30 38.35 44.00 238K 1.1M 36.45
Buy Not Hit.
GILD 06/01 PreAnn 61.54 -1.32 60.97 70.95 4.5M 7M 62.78
Trailing Stop. Fell on strong volume holding the 50 day MVA.
HYSL 09/05 Rv H&S 33.50 -0.40 33.90 38.90 589K 1.1M 32.64
Current. Pullback tapping 30.50 at the intraday low and rallied back showing a tight doji on low volume. Beginning to consolidate.
LUFK 08/09 PreAnn 60.61 -4.02 65.25 76.00 180K 225K 62.72
Buy Not Issued. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop.
MOLX 08/28 Cup hdl 36.52 -0.48 36.72 40.95 611K 550K 36.25
Current. Pullback on average volume. Looking for a rebound from the 10 day MVA (36.17)
MOLX 08/10 Test 50 36.52 -0.48 34.72 40.95 611K 625K 36.44
Current.
MTW 08/31 DB hdl 45.62 +0.06 44.58 52.95 1.1M 1.2M 42.65
Buy Not Issued. Showing a tight doji on rising, but average volume. Will let test back.
NVDA 09/05 Test BO 27.07 -1.43 28.72 32.95 8.1M 10M 27.68
Buy Not Hit.
NVDA 08/23 Test BO 27.07 -1.43 26.58 31.00 8.1M 10M 28.32
Current. Pullback holding above the 18 day MVA on low volume. Looking for a rebound from 26.56 (18 day MVA)
NVDA 08/08 Test 20 27.07 -1.43 25.45 31.00 8.1M 12M 28.32
Current.
PCAR 08/31 Test 50 54.45 -1.93 55.35 60.00 2M 1.8M 55.38
Exited.
PCU 09/02 PreAnn 96.90 +0.23 93.75 104.00 1.4M 1.7M 90.85
Buy Not Issued.
PDS 08/19 DB hdl 35.69 -0.81 36.98 42.90 382K 888K 36.38
Exited. Fell below the 18 day MVA on rising volume.
PLMD 08/28 Cup hdl 40.56 -0.38 39.68 45.75 118K 423K 39.78
Gapped down showing a tight doji on the 10 day MVA on low volume. Should be ready to bounce from here.
PPDI 09/02 DB hdl 37.64 -0.76 39.22 46.95 312K 725K 37.89
Buy Not Hit. Gapped down but managed to hold the 50 day MVA on low volume. Needs to rebound from here or will drop.
QSII 08/30 Test BO 40.25 -0.64 41.29 46.70 285K 425K 39.31
Current. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on rising, but average volume. Looking for a rebound from 10 day MVA (40)
QSII 08/09 Test BO 40.25 -0.64 37.45 45.00 285K 500K 39.31
Current.
SHOO 08/03 Cup hdl 38.83 +0.72 34.85 41.50 596K 584K 36.55
Current. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on strong volume surge. Came off the day's high of 39.89.
SPIL 08/30 DB hdl 6.10 -0.06 6.15 7.40 4M 1.6M 5.89
Current.
SRCL 09/02 PreAnn 65.38 -0.71 68.21 76.75 170K 381K 66.15
Buy Not Hit.
TRMB 08/30 Test 50 48.21 -0.99 50.22 57.98 505K 625K 48.39
Buy Not Hit. Pullback below the 18 day MVA on rising volume. May test back to 50 day MVA (47.45)
TZOO 08/17 Dbl btm 29.35 -0.75 32.04 36.72 296K 700K 33.15
Current.
VAR 08/29 DB hdl 52.37 -0.20 53.15 59.95 479K 1.5M 51.95
Buy Not Issued.
VIP 08/21 Cup hdl 58.73 -1.27 50.88 58.50 1.2M 1.2M 58.50
Target Hit. Hit the target intraday. Typical pullback.
VMSI 08/31 Asc Bse 44.43 -1.40 47.68 54.88 287K 348K 45.95
Buy Not Hit. Stock has not performed so will drop.
VSEA 08/22 DB hdl 34.18 -1.65 35.36 41.50 855K 1.2M 34.78
Exited.
WEBX 09/05 Test BO 35.08 -1.58 37.05 42.50 494K 600K 35.48
Buy Not Hit.
WFR 08/19 Dbl btm 35.78 -2.72 36.44 43.00 5.2M 5.5M 37.54
Trailing Stop.
WYNN 08/29 PreAnn 75.66 -0.80 78.38 88.00 1.3M 1.2M 75.68
Current.
XTO 08/29 PreAnn 45.60 -1.21 47.25 54.00 2.5M 5.5M 45.95
Buy Not Hit.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
CRI 08/24 Put 23.27 -0.31 21.84 19.80 695K 850K 22.55
Current. Gapped down showing a doji just above the 10 day MVA on rising volume. Doji may indicate a change in pattern to the upside. Will watch closely.
EXPD 08/24 Put 39.90 -1.02 38.88 36.55 1.5M 2.2M 39.35
Current. Gapped down at the open for a nice move showing a doji just under the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Broke through the 10 day MVA intraday, but faded back.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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