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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: SHOO; BP
Tuesday night play results:
LIFC: Low volume pullback toward the 10 day EMA, still working on the handle
PFWD: Dumped back to the 18 day EMA on very low volume. Still holding up, but we will see.
AAPL: Modest pullback
NVDA: Slipped through the 10 day EMA toward the 18 day EMA on very low volume. Still can give us a good bounce.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 09/06/2006
CMRG (Casual Male Retail--$11.51; 0.00; optionable): Apparel stores and catalog sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmrg.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. CMRG is consolidating a solid July to mid-August run where it broke out from a 9 week cup base. It is working laterally, resting for the next move higher, showing some good upside volume spikes as it does. Indeed, volume was very strong Wednesday as CMRG held its own at the 10 day EMA (11.41) as the market sold. Money flow is surging higher and we are looking to move in as CMRG makes another strong surge higher.
Volume: 864.556K Avg Volume: 459.32K
BUY POINT: $11.72 Volume=460K Target=$14.00 Stop=$10.99
POSITION: UCQ AB - Jan. $10c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cmrg.html
Play Date: 09/06/2006
IDEV (Indevus Pharma--$6.06; -0.18; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idev.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. IDEV is forming the handle to its 6 month cup base, fading to the 18 day EMA (6.01) Wednesday on rising, average volume, shaking out the sellers and setting up the breakout. Strong 8 to 4 accumulation in the base shows plenty of buying to send it higher (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume). Just has to hold up at near support here and spend a couple more sessions forming the handle to set up the break higher.
Volume: 628.588K Avg Volume: 608.991K
BUY POINT: $6.25 Volume=650K Target=$7.50 Stop=$5.97
POSITION: QUF AA - Jan. $5c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/idev.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/06/2006
TTC (Toro--$39.58; -0.90; optionable): Lawnmowers, small tools
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttc.html
STATUS: Put. TTC is in a continuing downtrend after peaking in April on a climax surge. It formed a head and shoulders from March through June and then broke lower in early July, starting the continuing trend lower, bouncing down the 18 day EMA (40.24). It spent the last leg of the summer rally rebounding up to the 18 day resistance on lower and lower volume. It tried to break through Friday and Tuesday but then rolled over Wednesday on rising, though still below average volume. Looks ready to continue the trend lower after this low volume bounce higher, following tanking money flow lower. A move to the target lands us a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 375.6K Avg Volume: 438.418K
BUY POINT: $39.45 Volume=445K Target=$37.90 Stop=$39.95
POSITION: TTC VH - Oct. $40p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ttc.html
Play Date: 09/06/2006
XPRSA (U.S. Xpress--$19.45; -1.10; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xprsa.html
STATUS: Head and shoulders. XPRSA has formed a broad top May through August, a bearish head and shoulders pattern that is starting the break lower on rising trade. XPRSA has already made us money as it set up this pattern. Wednesday XPRSA broke below the 200 day SMA (20.00), cracking below the neckline of the pattern. Looking to move in as XPRSA continues lower and follows the diving money flow lower. A move to the target lands us a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 187.639K Avg Volume: 241.066K
BUY POINT: $19.40 Volume=245K Target=$17.85 Stop=$20.05
POSITION: SUA VD - Oct. $20p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/xprsa.html
New buy points on continuing positions:
Play Date: 09/05/2006
NVDA (Nvidia--$27.07; -1.43; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
STATUS: Breakout test. NVDA sold back further Wednesday on lower, below average volume. It undercut the 10 day EMA (27.62), but still closed above the 18 day EMA (26.76). If it finds support there it is ready to rebound and continue the breakout move. To recap: Going back to the well again on this market leader as it comes back to once more test the mid-August breakout from its 14 week cup with handle base. This is the second move off of this level since the breakout. Strong stocks such as this usually give us 4 to 5 such runs so we are looking to move in as it continues the bounce off the 10 day it started Tuesday.
Volume: 8.057M Avg Volume: 10.403M
BUY POINT: New: $27.75 (orig. $28.72) Volume=10M Target=$32.95 Stop=$27.68
POSITION: UVA LY - Dec. $27.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nvda.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, AKAM, CCJ, CELG, FLR, GME, MGPI, MRVL, NVDA, SGMS, WM
AAPL: Not bad action, fading back some on lower though still above average volume.
AKAM: Dumped right back down to the 10 day EMA but volume was much lower and below average.
CCJ: Nice test of the solid 3 day upside. When it is over CCJ will be ready for another break higher.
CELG: Has put up a game fight but dumped back down on rising volume Wednesday
FLR: Falling through the 200 day SMA on strong volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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