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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers: NVDA; BP
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 09/07/2006
FSL (Freescale Semiconductor--$30.32; -0.21; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fsl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After giving us a decent little run in the third leg of the summer rally FSL has faded back Wednesday and Thursday after a strong Tuesday move. It tapped at the 18 day EMA (29.97) on the intraday lows and bounced back, showing a bit stronger, above average volume Thursday. Looking for it to complete the test and then rebound. Want to see some continued strong volume as it does. Nice 17 week pattern has formed over the 200 day SMA (28.09), setting up for a breakout to a new all-time high.
Volume: 3.045M Avg Volume: 2.449M
BUY POINT: $30.94 Volume=3.5M Target=$35.95 Stop=$29.75
POSITION: FSL AF - Jan. $30c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fsl.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/07/2006
ISLE (Isle of Capri Casino--$21.10; -0.07; optionable): Casinos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/isle.html
STATUS: Put. ISLE is in a continuing downtrend after forming a broad top in April and May and then heading lower. It has bounced down the 18 day EMA (21.30), dropping roughly $2 to $3 on each leg. It has rebounded up to the 18 day, showing a pair of dojis on the candlestick chart Wednesday and Thursday. That typically indicates a rebound is ending. Looking for a break lower through the 10 day EMA (20.94) to give us the entry to the next leg lower. A move to the target lands us a 60%ish gain.
Volume: 473.167K Avg Volume: 377.52K
BUY POINT: $20.88 Volume=475K Target=$18.85 Stop=$21.32
POSITION: QEP VX - Oct. $20p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/isle.html
Play Date: 09/07/2006
RDEN (Elizabeth Arden--$14.50; -0.22; optionable): Make-up, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rden.html
STATUS: Put. RDEN formed a broad top February through April and then tumbled through the 200 day SMA (now at 20). It has traded lower and lower down 18 day EMA, rebounding the past week during the third leg of the rally to once more hit the 18 day. It turned over and started lower, breaking below the 10 day EMA (14.66) Thursday. Looking to move in on continued selling and riding it to the target on this next leg lower. A move to the target lands us a 54%ish gain.
Volume: 153.585K Avg Volume: 186.482K
BUY POINT: $14.38 Volume=185K Target=$13.30 Stop=$14.69
POSITION: UWO VC - Oct. $15p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rden.html
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
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http://www.technicaltraders.com/ttr/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABMD 08/30 Asc Tri 14.53 -0.31 14.85 17.89 280K 125K 14.08
Current.
ARD 09/02 Test 18 36.95 -2.31 39.90 47.88 348K 225K 38.55
Exited.
BRCM 08/21 Test 50 26.43 -1.05 29.54 36.00 22M 20M 28.78
Exited. Moving down below the simple 50 day MVA.
COHR 08/22 DB hdl 35.82 -0.43 36.74 43.00 344K 350K 35.15
Buy Not Issued. Pullback below the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
DRIV 08/24 Test BO 48.39 -0.57 47.86 54.75 1.3M 1.2M 48.00
Exited. Arhhgg. Tanked below the 18 day EMA but then it managed
a rebound and, unlike many stocks, it hled the rebound
into the close, hanging on at the 10 day EMA. Good
recovery, maintaining the breakout.
DRIV 08/05 DB hdl 48.39 -0.57 45.72 57.50 1.3M 1.2M 48.00
Trailing Stop.
DRQ 09/05 Test 50 77.83 +0.13 80.38 95.00 427K 500K 77.00
Buy Not Hit. Still in the pattern.
EQIX 09/02 Cup hdl 60.33 +0.74 61.33 70.95 471K 731K 59.38
Current.
EZPW 09/02 Cup 38.00 -2.13 40.83 47.50 663K 525K 39.25
Exited. Fell to hold the 50 day MVA on strong volume.
FORM 09/02 Test BO 45.25 -1.43 46.89 53.95 1.8M 1.1M 45.42
Buy Not Issued. Stock has not performed so will drop.
HLEX 08/26 Cup 30.77 +0.02 30.46 36.00 143K 300K 30.15
Current. Volatile session testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on low volume. Beginning to consolidate
IDXX 08/28 BO 93.13 -0.12 92.24 99.00 127K 155K 92.00
Current. Ease back on low volume. Still in uptrend.
INFA 08/26 Rv H&S 14.20 -0.12 14.71 16.95 552K 2M 13.68
Buy Not Issued.
MOLX 08/28 Cup hdl 36.75 +0.23 36.72 40.95 484K 550K 36.25
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on low volume. Meeting some resistance at 37.
MOLX 08/10 Test 50 36.75 +0.23 34.72 40.95 484K 625K 36.44
Current.
MTW 08/31 DB hdl 45.40 -0.22 44.58 52.95 1.1M 1.2M 42.65
Buy Not Issued. Pullback on average volume. Will let stock continue to pullback.
MVSN 08/28 DB hdl 23.89 +0.10 24.14 26.95 348K 990K 23.22
Current.
NGPS 08/12 Test BO 44.11 +0.72 41.48 48.88 507K 190K 44.45
Trailing Stop. Part of the whipsaw as NGPS sold off hard and then
rebounded as volume shot higher.
NITE 07/29 Cup hdl 17.06 -0.51 16.68 19.98 2.3M 2M 17.50
Trailing Stop.
NVDA 09/05 Test BO 27.61 +0.54 27.85 32.95 12M 10M 26.38
Entered today. Bounced off the 10 day MVA for a nice gain on stronger above average volume. Came off the day's high of 28.22 at the intraday high, but gave it back to hold the 10 day MVA. Should continue the uptrend.
NVDA 08/23 Test BO 27.61 +0.54 26.58 31.00 12M 10M 28.32
Current.
NVDA 08/08 Test 20 27.61 +0.54 25.45 31.00 12M 12M 28.32
Current.
PFWD 09/05 Cup 11.11 -0.33 12.25 14.00 89K 275K 1.42
Buy Not Hit. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop.
PLMD 08/28 Cup hdl 40.52 -0.04 39.68 45.75 153K 423K 39.78
Pullback testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on low volume. Should hold here and rebound.
PRXL 08/19 Test BO 32.43 -1.13 32.24 36.95 200K 285K 32.95
Trailing Stop.
QCOM 09/02 Test 50 36.97 -1.07 39.16 44.50 18M 18M 37.88
Exited.
QSII 08/30 Test BO 40.01 -0.24 41.29 46.70 113K 425K 39.31
Current. Pullback holding the 10 day MVA on low volume. Routine pullback. Looking for a bounce from here.
QSII 08/09 Test BO 40.01 -0.24 37.45 45.00 113K 500K 39.31
Current.
SEIC 08/14 Asc Bse 51.77 -0.28 50.72 58.50 516K 750K 51.31
Current. Pullback on lower below average volume. Moving up after testing the 18 day MVA.
STXS 08/29 Test 20 10.55 +0.01 11.33 13.55 173K 425K 10.65
Current. Tapped 10.28 at the intraday low and rallied back showing a doji just above the 18 day MVA on low volume. Testing the breakout. Should give a bounce from here.
TRMB 08/30 Test 50 48.21 0.00 50.22 57.98 238K 625K 48.39
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 49.59 at the intraday high, but gave it back to close flat on low volume. Still in the pattern.
TYL 08/12 Test BO 12.77 -0.22 12.38 14.85 344K 210K 12.96
Current.
TZOO 08/17 Dbl btm 28.96 -0.39 32.04 36.72 294K 700K 33.15
Exited.
WRLD 09/06 DB hdl 39.86 -0.23 40.72 48.00 290K 319K 38.95
Buy Not Hit. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a doji on stronger above average volume. Doji may indicate a change in pattern to the upside.
WTSLA 09/06 Cup hdl 5.66 +0.09 5.82 7.00 653K 980K 5.41
Buy Not Hit.
WYNN 08/23 DB hdl 75.51 -0.15 75.96 82.50 1.5M 1.2M 74.89
Current.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
BP 08/31 H&S 65.76 -1.17 67.93 65.90 4.1M 3.5M 66.00
Target Hit. Gapped lower once more and still looks as if it has
more downside ahead of it.
EXPD 08/24 Put 39.81 -0.09 38.88 36.55 1.2M 2.2M 39.35
Current. Broke through the 10 day MVA testing the 18 day MVA intraday, but faded back on low volume. Should continue with the downtrend.
JBLU 08/19 Put 9.90 -0.03 10.21 9.50 3.9M 4.5M 10.05
Current. Pullback showing a doji on average volume. Still in downtrend.
JEF 08/24 Put 24.80 -0.24 24.15 22.10 679K 895K 24.55
Current. Beginning to move down the 10 day MVA on rising, but below average volume.
PRAA 09/06 Put 39.18 -0.06 38.85 36.85 94K 165K 39.38
Entered today.
TTC 09/06 Put 39.55 -0.03 39.21 37.79 354K 445K 39.90
Entered today. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday, but faded back on below average volume. Still in downtrend.
XPRSA 09/06 Put 19.25 -0.20 19.40 17.85 203K 245K 20.05
Buy Not Issued. Was down early but then started to rebound. It kept coming back and though closed below the buy point we held off, waiting to see if the intraday rebound takes it back up toward the 200 day for a test before it rolls back over.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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