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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: AAPL; AEOS; NVDA
New Plays:
New Pre-Split Play:
Play Date: 09/07/2006
CXW (Corrections Corp of America--$64.06; +0.15; optionable): Private prisons. Splits 3:2 on 9-14-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cxw.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Taking another look at CXW now that it is a bit closer to the split day. CXW is trying to get up off the 10 day EMA (63.37) the past two sessions after a 2 week lateral move over that near support as it consolidates the strong run in early August. It splits next week and thus we are expecting the break higher to move into the split at any time. Can run nicely when it gets going.
Volume: 197.2K Avg Volume: 396.398K
BUY POINT: $64.35 Volume=400K Target=$70.00 Stop=$62.55
POSITION: CXW LM - Dec. $65c (49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cxw.html
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 09/07/2006
IGT (International Game Technology--$38.66; +0.88; optionable): Computerized gaming machines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igt.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Volume jumped Thursday as IGT started toward the breakout from its 18 week base formed along the 50 day EMA (37.50). Excellent 6 to 2 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying as IGT sets up for the breakout. This is part of a much larger 2 year base and this is the handle to that pattern. Like the vices as the economy may get a bit softer.
Volume: 4.683M Avg Volume: 2.232M
BUY POINT: $39.35 Volume=2.3M Target=$45.50 Stop=$37.45
POSITION: IGX AH - Jan. $40c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/igt.html
Play Date: 09/07/2006
PSYS (Psychiatric Solutions--$32.43; +0.38; optionable): Inpatient behavioral health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psys.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume is creeping higher on PSYS this week as it probes a breakout from its 6 month base that is setting PSYS for a break to a new all-time high. Nice quiet volume in the handle during August indicates a good shakeout setting up the breakout. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price, and with this nice pattern PSYS looks ready to make the break and give us a nice run. Like that it is in healthcare as that makes it a bit more resistant to any September selling.
Volume: 433.454K Avg Volume: 564.212K
BUY POINT: $33.05 Volume=966K Target=$38.00 Stop=$31.50
POSITION: BYU LF - Dec. $30c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/psys.html
New Leader Play:
Play Date: 09/07/2006
FSL (Freescale Semiconductor--$30.32; -0.21; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fsl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After giving us a decent little run in the third leg of the summer rally FSL has faded back Wednesday and Thursday after a strong Tuesday move. It tapped at the 18 day EMA (29.97) on the intraday lows and bounced back, showing a bit stronger, above average volume Thursday. Looking for it to complete the test and then rebound. Want to see some continued strong volume as it does. Nice 17 week pattern has formed over the 200 day SMA (28.09), setting up for a breakout to a new all-time high.
Volume: 3.045M Avg Volume: 2.449M
BUY POINT: $30.94 Volume=3.5M Target=$35.95 Stop=$29.75
POSITION: FSL AF - Jan. $30c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fsl.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/07/2006
ISLE (Isle of Capri Casino--$21.10; -0.07; optionable): Casinos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/isle.html
STATUS: Put. ISLE is in a continuing downtrend after forming a broad top in April and May and then heading lower. It has bounced down the 18 day EMA (21.30), dropping roughly $2 to $3 on each leg. It has rebounded up to the 18 day, showing a pair of dojis on the candlestick chart Wednesday and Thursday. That typically indicates a rebound is ending. Looking for a break lower through the 10 day EMA (20.94) to give us the entry to the next leg lower. A move to the target lands us a 60%ish gain.
Volume: 473.167K Avg Volume: 377.52K
BUY POINT: $20.88 Volume=475K Target=$18.85 Stop=$21.32
POSITION: QEP VX - Oct. $20p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/isle.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating, even more so in the current market. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical pattern. Many we considered have announced, but have not fared well given the market was top-heavy and ready to sell or their technical patterns were garbage.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Forecast 10-18-06 after the close. And yet another excellent break higher.
AGN: 9-20-06 at 10:00PT. Broke its uptrend Thursday, falling to the 50 day EMA.
APH: Looking to third week of October for an announcement, and it will need to rally before then to be ready.
CMI: Tentative date is 10-31-06. Right back down to the 90 day MA.
COG: Tentative: 10-26-06. Bounced off the 50 day EMA and then gapped below it. Not doing it.
CPRT: Nothing to end August, but possibly early September. Hearing talk of a split in early September, but no definitive date.
CTSH: 10-31-06
CVD: Wildcard as no splits in CVD's history.
DHR: Some word on an announcement in the second week of September. Gapped lower to the 50 day EMA.
DRQ: Still holding the trendline
DVA: Mid-September
ESRX: Hearing talk of something in September, but no confirmation information yet.
FMX: Tentatively set at 10-27-06
LUFK: Looking at early September.
SRCL: Forecast tentatively 10-25-06
SU: Forecast 10-5-06 with a board meeting. Down to the 200 day SMA.
TRMB: Reported earnings 7-25-06
VMSI: Forecast tentatively 10-27-06. Trying to bounce off support at 44.
WYNN: Wildcard. No splits in its history but tentatively looking at late October, early November.
XTO: Forecast 10-19-06
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 09/02/2006
BOOM (Dynamic Materials--$35.68; -1.63; optionable): Industrial metal coatings
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/boom.html
STATUS: Cup. After rallying to 38 on the Wednesday high BOOM got the dips Thursday and tanked to the 10 day EMA (35.53) on the close. Volume fell back as it did, so no distribution. This looks to be a test that is giving us an entry in to the play. To recap: Testing back to near support as BOOM sets up to continue higher in its 18 week base formed along the 200 day SMA (32.53). Money flow continues to run higher and after this test we are looking to move into BOOM as it makes the rebound.
Volume: 658.803K Avg Volume: 650.878K
BUY POINT: $36.68 Volume=800K Target=$42.50 Stop=$34.48
POSITION: QCB LG - Dec. $35c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/boom.html
Play Date: 08/31/2006
MTW (Manitowoc--$45.40; -0.22; optionable): Farm and construction machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtw.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Nice lateral move the past two sessions after MTW broke higher through 45, coming off the 50 day EMA (42.42) early in the week. Really solid 17 week base has formed at the 200 day SMA (38.74), setting up the next break higher. Using that support shows the institutions staying with the stock, setting up the foundation for the next move higher.
Volume: 1.076M Avg Volume: 1.175M
BUY POINT: New: $46.15 (orig. $44.58) Volume=1.2M Target=$52.95 Stop=$42.65
POSITION: MTW LI - Dec. $45c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mtw.html
Play Date: 08/28/2006
PLMD (Polymedica--$40.52; -0.04; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plmd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. PLMD looks very solid as it tests the 10 day EMA (40.43), still working on the handle to its 20 week base. Showed a pair of dojis Wednesday and Thursday on low volume as it tests, making a higher low in the handle and sets up for the breakout and run to a new all-time high. Like the sector as well as the strong pattern given the potentially up and down action to come here in September.
Volume: 153.135K Avg Volume: 270.463K
BUY POINT: $39.68 Volume=423K Target=$45.75 Stop=$39.78
POSITION: PM LH - Dec. $40c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/plmd.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAY:
Play Date: 08/26/2006
ASMI (ASM International--$17.30; +0.03; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asmi.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Continues its lateral move in the handle, holding the 200 day SMA (17.23) as it works in its tight range. Volume improved early in the week and ASMI tried to make the move but faded back. Still set up well, ignoring the selling, looking for the price breakout to follow the money flow higher. To recap: Excellent handle has formed the past two weeks with a tight, low volume pullback to the 200 day SMA after surging through that level three weeks back on strong volume. Nice handle to the 16 week base, holding the 200 day SMA and ready to follow the rising money flow higher. Plenty of room to run upside, and it can do it quickly as demonstrated on the last two legs higher; just what we want for this week.
Volume: 103.105K Avg Volume: 178.098K
BUY POINT: New: $17.65 (orig. $17.55) Volume=285K Target=$20.97 Stop=$16.95
POSITION: IQB LW - Dec. $17.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/asmi.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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