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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: AKAM; MU; NVDA; TWGP; WEBX
Thursday night play results:
DJO: Still working at the 50 day EMA
HPOL: Bounced on stronger volume; may not make the rest of the test
PLCE: Gapped up but could not make the breakaway move
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 09/16/2006
CWTR (Coldwater Creek--$28.64; +0.10; optionable): Apparel retail stores and catalog sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cwtr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CWTR worked laterally through Monday along the 10 day EMA (27.97) then broke higher Tuesday. It could not advance the move to end the week, however, as volume was lower and it drifted laterally on even lower trade to Friday. It can come back to test the 10 day EMA again and then be ready to move higher once more. We will look to pick this retail leader up on the rebound.
Volume: 568.583K Avg Volume: 1.505M
BUY POINT: $28.95 Volume=1.6M Target=$34.95 Stop=$27.74
POSITION: UCJ AE - Jan. $25c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cwtr.html
Play Date: 09/16/2006
CYBS (Cybersource--$11.24; +0.47; optionable): Electronic payment systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cybs.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Nice little 10 week pattern has formed making higher lows over the 90 day MA (10.28) and last week a higher low at the 50 day EMA (10.67) as CWTR bounced off that support on a strong shot of rising, above average volume. Outstanding 4 to 1 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows heavy buying. Looking to move in as CYBS continues this rebound off the 50 day EMA on more strong trade.
Volume: 329.11K Avg Volume: 233.968K
BUY POINT: $11.39 Volume=350K Target=$13.69 Stop=$10.64
POSITION: CXQ AB - Jan. $10c (69 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cybs.html
Play Date: 09/16/2006
HLEX (Healthextras--$31.02; +0.02; optionable): Insurance brokers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hlex.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. HLEX looks very good here with volume jumping Friday on a test of the 10 day EMA (30.73) and then a nice rebound in its very tight lateral range in the handle of its 6 month base. Perennial leader setting up for a move to a new all-time high. Money flow remains way out in front and looking for a strong breakout to jump back in.
Volume: 533.256K Avg Volume: 231.88K
BUY POINT: $31.32 Volume=348K Target=$37.00 Stop=$30.45
POSITION: HUE CF - Mar. $30c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/hlex.html
Play Date: 09/16/2006
MERX (Merix--$12.23; 0.00; optionable): Printed circuit boards
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/merx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Kind of skewed and could be called a reverse head and shoulders, but either way a nice base set up over the 200 day SMA (10.05; used it on the pattern low as support) and now in a nice lateral handle to its 22 week base. Positive accumulation and money flow surging higher ahead of price. It is ready, but needs to show strong trade as it makes the move higher.
Volume: 234.421K Avg Volume: 356.155K
BUY POINT: $12.48 Volume=525K Target=$14.35 Stop=$11.86
POSITION: KXQ CV - Mar. $12.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/merx.html
Play Date: 09/16/2006
WTSLA (Wet Seal--$5.83; +0.18; optionable): Apparel and accessory items targeting female consumers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wtsla.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. WTSLA is starting the breakout from the two week handle to its 22 week base. Excellent 9 to 3 accumulation (9 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume), showing heavy buying during the base. Volume rallied to end August and then into last week, showing the buyers are massing for the breakout. Indeed it started that move Friday on a good shot of rising, above average volume. Ready to move in as it continues higher this week.
Volume: 1.001M Avg Volume: 672.78K
BUY POINT: $5.92 Volume=675K Target=$7.12 Stop=$5.56
POSITION: WTQ CA - Mar. $5c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/wtsla.html
Continuing plays ready to move:
Play Date: 09/05/2006
LIFC (Lifecell--$30.45; +0.64; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lifc.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Volume jumped above average Friday as LIFC moved off the 18 day EMA (29.62), getting ready to break LIFC out of its 10 week base. Outstanding 5 to 1 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows strong buying, setting up the breakout to a new all-time high. Solid leader ready to make the move.Volume: 1.154M Avg Volume: 864.711K
BUY POINT: $31.24 Volume=1M Target=$36.50 Stop=$29.42
POSITION: QKL LF - Dec. $30c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/lifc.html
Play Date: 09/14/2006
PLCE (Childrens Place--$58.04; +0.20; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plce.html
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. Gapped higher Friday over the 90 day MA (57.71), starting the move but no volume to keep the break off the 200 day SMA (54.33) going. Still set up well to continue the move higher, and we are ready to move in as the stock does on continued solid trade. To recap: The consumer is looking fine and so is PLCE. Volume has jumped up this week as it comes off a 200 day SMA test. Nice run in Q1 needed a breather and this 18 week base is doing just that. Want to pick it off as it jumps off the 200 day and starts the rally to form the right side of its base that will set it up for a breakout to a new all-time high.
Volume: 575.919K Avg Volume: 545.155K
BUY POINT: $58.45 Volume=800K Target=$67.50 Stop=$56.65
POSITION: TUY CL - Mar. $60c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/plce.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, AKAM, CCJ, CELG, FLR, GME, MGPI, MRVL, NVDA, SGMS, WM
AKAM: Impressive run higher continues on above average volume.
GME: Nice lateral move after the strong run higher to start the week.
MRVL: Still trying to continue the break higher but showing a big doji Friday. May test the 50 day EMA before resuming the move on toward the 90 day MA at 21.
NVDA: More volume Friday, but likely nothing more than expiration action.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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