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us stock market, stock split
Begin Part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS: Unreal move by SEBL, with a great breakout by CREE and a nice run by NTAP!
BONUS PLAYS: FILE broke out, and DCOM is trying, with ARM and ADP still looking good.
CMH (Clayton Homes--$16.02; +0.54; optionable): Software.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmh.html
STATUS: Has battled back to its pre-tragedy highs, failing to move over them in November, and after a dip to the 200 day MVA (14.28), failed on its latest attempt this month. However, the stock has peeled back from the last attempt on light volume, holding this time catching support at its 18 day MVA (15.37), and today bouncing back up on excellent volume (579,000; average 370,000). A strong comeback with the strength of housing, and we will look for it this time to take out its highs (December 16.36; July 16.55). Excellent buying. Target: 21.
BUY POINT: 16.67 on continued strong volume. Stop: 15.50 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or February $15 calls to buy (CMH BC).
PDX (Pediatrix Medical--$36.15; +0.43; optionable): Health Services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdx.html
STATUS: Fell back hard in October, but from lows at 26 it has fought back and now formed a small double bottom since early November. A short pattern (about 6 weeks, and we like a minimum of seven), but after finding support for a second time at 32 last week, it made a move back over its 50 day MVA (33.70) with a big move. This week it has held up, dipping back slightly on low volume. Looking for this handle to hold over the 10 day MVA (34.76), perhaps extending a bit, and then showing us a breakout. Target: The high at 43.17.
BUY POINT: 36.96 on volume of 790,000. Stop: 34.37 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or February $30 calls to buy (PDX BF).
Indexes: The DJX and OEX could be forming bearish head and shoulders patterns here. May not complete the patterns, but we are watching them in case they do. The DJX was up on stronger (above average) volume, closing at 99.98 just over the level of the first shoulder's peak (which is at 99.93). If it moves back down we will look for the breakout below the 50 day MVA (buy point 97.25). OEX: Can move up from here until it hits potential resistance at the top of the first shoulder's hump at the 598 range. Aggressive buy point on a move down from there is 595 on continued strong volume.
BEST PLAYS: Besides the plays set forth below as best plays, there are some other stocks that also look good. These include Pre-Announcement TRDO.
MARKET FAVORITES BEST PLAYS:
1) MERQ - Broke out!
2) INTC - Nice pattern
3) INKT - Looking for another move
MERQ (Mercury Interactive--$36.90; +2.60; optionable): Software.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/merq.html
STATUS: After making its solid bounce from the 50 day MVA (31.21) early this month, MERQ made its jagged way back to test the move, dipping below November highs (34) and testing the 18 day MVA (33.48). It bounced weakly Monday, but volume kicked in today as MERQ ran past its December high (36.51), out of its handle to the cup deep in its base. Still a buy up to 38.34, but we are targeting the 200 day MVA, at 41.30.
BUY POINT: Still a buy up to 38.34, looking for increased volume (4.26 million; average 4.1 million). Stop: 35.66 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or April $30 or $35 calls to buy (INQ DF or INQ DG).
INTC (Intel--$33.81; -0.16; optionable): Software.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/intc.html
STATUS: Continues in a very nice handle consolidation, holding over its short-term MVA's (tested its 10 day at is low today of 33.36) on low volume. Today saw a loose doji on volume of 39.7 million (average 53.6 million). The handle formed after its break over its May August range, made on its run from early-October lows under 20. Looking for INTC to hold the 10 day and give us a breakout, but with the MU news we will have to just see how it responds. Target: 40.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 34.97 on above average volume. Stop: 32.52 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or April $30 calls to buy (INQ DF).
INKT (Inktomi--$7.00; -0.10; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/inkt.html
STATUS: INKT gapped down to support Monday at the convergence of the 18 day and 200 day MVA's (currently 6.35 and 6.20), testing just below its November highs over which it recently broke, and was able to make a solid bounce back up from that level on good volume. Today INKT tested back toward the 18 day again (low of 6.50), but again rallied back to close with a doji. Volume was down on the day at 4.4 million (about average), so we will see if after this rest if INKT can continue back up. On a move over the recent high (7.79), targeting 9.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: In a strong Nasdaq, a move over 7.25 on volume of 6 million or better. Stop: 6.85 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or April $5 calls to buy (KFN DA).
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK: BBY and BBBY
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT BEST PLAYS
1) BBY - Strong earnings and big move!
2) BRL - Still looking nice in its lateral consolidation
3) BBBY - Holding on going into the forecast
4) FDC - Still looking to breakout
BBY ($72.55; +3.55): Did not get the announcement with earnings, but it made a great move on the numbers!
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bby.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 2-22-99 with a board meeting. The stock price was $95. Prior to that announced a 2:1 split on 4-24-98 with a board meeting. The stock price was $71. The annual shareholder meeting was 6-26-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: With the positive earnings announcement this morning, BBY gave us the move over the 10 day MVA (69.26), gapping over that level and continuing up on great volume (5.36 million; average 3.82 million). Going toward earnings there was some concern as the stock dipped back from a recent high of 74.23 (made earlier this month), and took out its July high (70) in the left side of a cup pattern. It held strong over the 50 day MVA (64.09), however, and gave a decent bounce Monday going into earnings. Riding positions now, and looking for a move over the recent high for new or additional positions. On a move over the high, the initial target it 80. At that point we will likely get a rest before another surge.
BUY POINT: 74.35 on continued strong volume. Stop: 69.15.
POSITION: Stock and/or March $70 calls to buy (BBY CN).
BRL (Barr Laboratories--$78.35; +1.27; optionable): Researching a split date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 5-31-00 in conjunction with a board meeting, at a price of $52. The annual shareholder meeting was on 10-25-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. There are sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Still in its lateral pattern. BRL made triple tops at 90 in July-October, but after retreating to 60 in November it has made a nice recovery. The run looks good, as BRL took out its 200 day MVA (70.32) in November and then consolidated, and then took out its 50 day (74.98) with a strong move last week before pulling laterally again over that support (and the 10 day, at 76.36). Today BRL moved up, but volume remained low at 626,400 (average 1.1 million). Looking for more strength to propel a breakout. Target: 90.
BUY POINT: 78.86 on volume of 1.5 million. Stop: 74.
POSITION: Stock and/or February $75 calls to buy (BRL BO).
BBBY (Bed, Bath & Beyond--$32.17; +0.18; optionable): Forecast to announce a split during the market hours on 12-20-01 in conjunction with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbby.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 7-13-00 with a board meeting. The stock price of $39. The shareholder meeting was on 6-28-01 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: BBBY is trying to fight back after its abrupt drop back from a breakout from a 'flying w' with handle as it goes toward the forecast. It has some solid support at one of its up trendlines that is just above the 50 day MVA (30.64), but has been turned back by another up trendline that is currently at 33.75. After several attempts to move up on strong volume, today BBBY showed a tight doji on low volume (2.94 million; average 4.38 million), closing just under its short-term MVA's (10 day at 32.50). For positions going toward the forecast we will need to see a strong move over the trendline serving as resistance. The breakout high was 35.70.
BUY POINT: A bounce back over 34 on above average volume. Stop: 32.55 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or February $30 calls to buy (BHQ BF).
FDC (First Data--$76.60; -0.05; optionable): Working on a forecast date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdc.html
BACKGROUND: Last split was a 2:1 on 11-18-96 at a stock price of $80. The annual shareholder meeting was on 1-11-01 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Made a solid bounce Monday from its 18 day MVA (74.86), reaching up near its recent high (77.93). FDC took out its former (July) high when it moved out of a reverse head and shoulders in early November, and since has made a nice move up along the 18 day. We were looking for today's bounce for aggressive positions, and now will see how it is able to deal with the high. We can look at positions on a move over the high, and as this stock has made two tests of the 18 day since its breakout, we could see a couple of more bounces on this move. Target: 87.
BUY POINT: 78.05 on volume of 2.4 million (2.12 million; down to 1.99 million today).
POSITION: Stock and/or February $75 calls to buy (FDC BO).
PRE-SPLITS BEST PLAYS: Remember, we try to grab these as they break out of good patterns or as they start a run right before the split. Not looking for home runs, but looking for those $3 to $4 moves running into the split, watching for topping signs and potential resistance. Not huge money, but it can be very steady. We set our initial stops at the 7-8% range below the purchase price (or just below obvious support), and move them up on a move to preserve our profits.
1) SYMC - A new play looking to breakout
2) XRAY - Trying to move toward the breakout
SYMC (Symantec--$69.77; +2.52; optionable): Splits 2:1 effective February 1. Internet security software.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/symc.html
STATUS: Has risen 100% since September, building the right side of a double-bottom base. It has pulled into a handle the last couple of weeks, moving back to the 18 day MVA (66.05) on low volume. It caught support on that level and moved up toward the handle high (71) today, although volume was down and remained low at 1.62 million (average 2.7 million). A good little move on the split announcement news, but now we need to see some volume take it to a breakout. On that move, we will also focus on resistance from the May (left-side) high of 73.50, targeting 80 initially. Good money flow and buying, and relative strength has broken out.
PLAY: 71.12 on volume of 4 million, stock and/or January or April $65 calls to buy (SYQ AM or SYQ DM - February available next week).
XRAY (Dentsply Internat--$47.89; +0.70; optionable): Medical instruments. Splits 3:2 effective February 1.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
STATUS: XRAY broke to a new high early this month, moving out of its extended ranging pattern at 43-46. The stock hit up to 48.80 on that move, and then pulled back to test the upper range of the former pattern (and its 18 day MVA, at 46.79). It held and today made a bounce back up on excellent volume (370,400; average 230,200), although pulling back from its intraday high of 48.40. We will see if it retreats more off of that pullback, but we are looking for the momentum to the upside to return and push it up toward and beyond the recent high. Target of 57.
PLAY: Over the high: 48.92 on continued strong volume. Stop: 45.50. We can also look at more aggressive positions if XRAY dips back but holds the 10 day (47.19) and makes a strong move up from there. Stock and/or January $45 calls to buy (XAQ AI).
PAST SPLITS BEST PLAYS
FIC (Fair Isaac & Co--$63.80; +0.30; optionable): Business services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fic.html
STATUS: After a strong breakout move, FIC tested the move but held, moving back up from the breakout point the last few sessions. We look for the former breakout point to hold on a test, and now we will see if it can take out the breakout high (65) from here. Today it tested back to its 10 day MVA (62.36) before closing with a doji on increased volume (228,000; average 195,500). We could see another test of the 10 day, but for positions are looking for a move over the breakout high. Has been a strong performer, and still looks good. Target: All-time high at 69.90.
BUY POINT: 65.12 on increased volume. Stop: 60.56.
POSITION: Stock and/or April $60 calls to buy (FIC DL).
CONTINUING CANDIDATES BEST PLAYS:
1) AZO - Holding in a tight consolidation on the test
AZO (Autozone--$73.90; +0.40; optionable): Auto Parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/azo.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in March of 1994 at a price of $58. The annual shareholder meeting was on 12-14-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized.
STATUS: Waiting, waiting, waiting . . . Still holding nicely on the test. AZO gave us an amazing breakout last week (gapping up from a lengthy consolidation over 65), hitting a high of 79.90 on huge volume when it announced its earnings. Since then it gradually pulled back to support and has shown six consecutive dojis over the 10 day MVA (73.05; low on the gap up at 71.85). Volume has dipped back with the consolidation (982,600; average 1.6 million), and as with the last pattern, we could need a bit of patience with this one. We are initially targeting the breakout high, and see how it handles that.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: From here or after continuing to hold support, a move over 75 on increased volume. Stop: 69.76 (7%, 18 day MVA at 71.39).
POSITION: Stock and/or March $70 calls to buy (AZO AN).
POST-SPLIT BEST PLAYS:
1) AMHC - Holding in a consolidation
AMHC (American Healthways--$36.33; -0.22; no options): Health Services. Split 3:2 effective 11-26-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amhc.html
STATUS: Broke to a new high last week (37.32, following a late November breakout of a 4-week handle to a cup dating back to July), and is now consolidating over the 36 level. Tuesday saw AMHC show yet another doji, testing down for the second consecutive session near its 10 day MVA (35.32) before moving back up to close. Volume finally dipped back from its strong levels, coming in at 131,700 today (average 180,600). This consolidation sets up nicely for another move; although this stock has made a great move already, it got new legs with good news on a deal that propelled the last breakout, and with this pattern it looks like it has some more to go. Carefully protective of profits from here, but ready to play a solid move up. Target: 42.
PLAY: On a move over 37.44 on increased volume, we can look at additional positions with stock. Stop: 34.80 (7%, 10 day MVA at 34.41).
****
REMAINING PLAYS:
****
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS REMAINING PLAYS:
Watchlist:
JCI ($79.72; +0.33): Forecast to announce a split on 1-18-02 in conjunction with earnings. At this time, the company cannot confirm this date. Dipped back hard last week after a downgrade, and now JCI is struggling with its its short-term MVA's (79.37). Today it moved up but could only manage a doji. May take a while, with the buy point 82.82 on volume of 700,000, with stock and/or January $75 calls to buy (JCI AO - low open interest).
DHR ($59.51; +2.08): Forecast to announce a split in late January in conjunction with earnings. At this time, the company cannot confirm a date for earnings release. Lowered its outlook last week and was downgraded. It has made a weak bounce from support from recent price levels at 56, today moving back over its 50 day (58.15) on much lower volume (1.06 million; average 1.5 million). Could still be a put, but not a lot of room from here with a lot of close support (200 day 57.35). We will keep an eye on it.
SRCL ($61.49; +0.30): Forecast to announce a split on 2-19-02 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings. Continues to crawl up its 10 day MVA (59.90) on light volume. Off of today's doji we could get a drop back to support (10 & 18 day at 59.90 and 58.43) that could set up another move. Protecting positions.
GNSS ($68.69; -0.21): Working on a date. Has made a nice run, but after its solid move Friday it has stalled with consecutive dojis, testing toward the 10 day MVA (64.76) each session. We are being protective with existing positions as GNSS is due for a test back down, either to the 10 day or lower at the 18 day (60.95). Once it finds support, we know it can really move.
EDS ($67.75; -1.83): We are researching a date. Has made recent double tops and fallen back. It held its 50 day MVA (66.63), but a weak bounce failed and the stock dropped back through its short-term MVA's (68.86) today. Looks like it has pretty good support at the 50 day, so we will see if it can hold and set up something playable.
MI ($64.12; +0.93): We are researching a forecast date. Continued up today, but this could be the last gasp on the run. Volume was way down on the move (209,100; average 260,000), and MI has made four runs on this trend, which typically can mean it needs to test lower. The 50 day MVA is at 60.35.
BMS ($50.25; +0.60): We are researching a date in January. After the weak breakout early this month, BMS dipped back below its 18 day MVA (49.88), and although it pulled back over that level today, volume was not promising (up to 234,800, about average). It could still drop to the 50 day (47.93), but we will keep our eyes on it for a stronger move back up toward its high of 52.47.
THQI ($52.33; -2.05): We are working on a date. A failed breakout, and today it gave up its 50 day MVA (54.07), although not on serious volume (1.34 million; average 1.57 million). It has support from recent price levels here, so we will continue to see if this stock, which is capable of some great moves, can stop the bleeding.
XL ($91.50; -0.52): Researching a date. Continues to move in a tight range, holding its 50 day MVA (90.12) but constrained by the short-term (18 day at 91.77). Volume continues to be low, but we are watching for a possible jump out of its slumber. The break to a new high is a move over 96.50 on volume of 2.7 million, and the aggressive play is on a move over 93 on above average volume, both with stock and/or January $90 calls to buy (XL AR).
SONC ($35.31; +0.31): We are working on a date. SONC has made a nice, steady move up on very low volume. That is a concern, especially with today's doji at the stock's high (made a new one intraday at 35.50). Protecting any existing positions from a drop back, with support at the short-term MVA's at 34, and the 50 day and recent levels at 33.
WLP ($115.15; +1.54): Working on a date. In a large cup dating back to late December 2000 (left side high: 120), but it has fallen out of its handle consolidation, catching its 50 day MVA (113.78) but not able to climb back over the short-term (18 day at 116.63) as volume was weak on the bounce attempt. We will see if it can develop.
End Part 2 of 3
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us stock market
stock split
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