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stock watch, stock symbol
Begin Part 3 of 3
Plays:
NDN (99 Cents Only Stores--$38.28; -0.75; optionable): Retail. Researching a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ndn.html
STATUS: Could test back in the handle. NDN has held support at the 18 day MVA (37.37) after dropping back hard from its recent move up in the right side of its 2.5-month cup (with something of a double bottom configuration). It had made a wild spike up to 42 on its last run before reversing on high volume, so holding support and forming this handle is good action. Today it hit the buy point as it made a move that hit 39.90, but volume was not the 600,000 we were looking for (400,500; average 419,000). We will see if it can hold the 18 day again on a dip back, and set up in the handle for another attempt at a breakout. We will watch the recent high at 42 on a move up, targeting 45.
BUY POINT: Breakout: After holding here or at the 18 day, 40.02 on volume of 600,000. Stop: 37.22 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or March $35 calls to buy (NDN CG).
TRDO (Intrado--$30.18; +1.58): Business software. Working on a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trdo.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that TRDO has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-26-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Very erratic. TRDO is making its second strong bounce from the 25 range this month. Once again, volume is very strong (654,900 today; average 347,000) as TRDO launched back over its 50 day (27.51) Friday and then made a strong move today, closing short of the high on the last attempt, which is 31.20. From there it made an abrupt drop last time, so with existing positions we will watch that level carefully. If it can take it out we can look at positions up toward the October high of 33.79; If it cannot, we will see if it can hold the 50 day as it build up the right side of a cup pattern.
BUY POINT: 31.33 on continued strong volume. Stop: 29.14 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or February $25 calls to buy (UNC BE).
PAST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:
LUV ($19.14; +0.30): LUV has dipped back into another handle to its cup pattern, never having made a strong move out of its prior handle consolidation. It is holding over that prior handle high (19) to close, however, but dipping back to a low near 18.50 for the second consecutive session before doing so. Volume has generally not been strong on the move up in the right side, and for new positions we will need to see LUV break from this handle, which move will also take it over resistance from its May and July highs. 20.12 on volume of 6 million, with stock.
PRE-SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:
Watchlist:
HRH ($56.65; -1.25): Splits 2:1 effective 1-2-02. Having trouble, still trying to hold the 50 day MVA (56.64) after last week's fall. We have time to see if it will hold and put something together.
FLO ($39.34; -0.73): Splits 3:2 on 1-3-02. Another stock that has bled back, and FLO again dropped below its 50 day MVA (40). Could be in for more of a drop, but we have some time.
MOVI ($24.30; +0.44): Splits 3:2 effective 1-4-02. Made it back over the 50 day (23.89), but it was not a strong move, with volume way down. It could not get past the 18 day MVA (24.75), closing with a loose doji. Not much of a put from here as it has a way to go before breaking recent support at 22. We will see if it sets up again.
Plays:
CBH (Commerce Bancorp--$77.24; +1.24): Splits 2:1 effective 12-19-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbh.html
STATUS: Dropped back through the 18 day MVA (76.23) last week, but made a solid move today going into the split. CBH made a move back over the short-term MVA's (10 day at 76.60), with volume stepping in much higher at 169,200 (average 151,600). With the split we will see how CBH holds up; this is its fourth bounce from the 18 day, so we could get a test of the 50 day post-split before another move up. For existing positions we will see if the stock can deal with its high of 78.64 (39.32 post-split), made on the strong move we got earlier this month.
PLAY: From here: 39.44 on increased volume. Stop: 36.68. (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or March $35 calls to buy (CBH CG - check broker for delta, etc.).
SASR (Sandy Springs Bancorp--$45.10; -0.80; no options): Splits 3:2 on 12-21-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sasr.html
STATUS: Pre-splits are volatile, and can be so even when they are in a pattern. After another solid move from SASR after the test of its early-December breakout, the stock ran all the way back to its 10 day MVA today at its low of 44.30, but managed to climb back up to close. Volume picked up considerably to 27,800 (average 18,200) on the move, and with two sessions to go before the split we are using care with any remaining positions. As we indicated, the drop comes right as SASR was challenging its upper channel trendline (currently at 45.80), and again it proved too much, at least for today. Not much of a play from here with just a bit of time left, although the aggressive could look at another quick move after a test back to the 10 day, but the trendline is solid resistance on a move back up.
PLAY: Aggressive: After a test of the 10 day MVA, a move back up, protecting profits going toward the split. Stock only.
CPRT (Copart--$37.37; +0.83; optionable): Auto parts. Splits 3:2 effective 1-22-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cprt.html
STATUS: Made a nice move up, but the run could be coming to an end. CPRT has come up from beneath its 18 day MVA (34.48), starting this move at 33.30 last Friday. Volume has risen each day, but the moves have gotten smaller, and volume still was below average even today (624,500; average 751,100). CPRT also found itself closing at its recent high, and at its upper channel trendline drawn from its December tops. Added together that equals a possible drop, so we are protecting existing positions. On a drop we will see if it can hold the 18 day, with the 50 day back at 32.42. Still plenty of time to catch another ride going toward the split.
PLAY: After a settling back to the 34-35 range, positions with stock and/or January $32.50 calls to buy (KQJ AZ - under 100 open interest, February available next week) on a strong move back up. Stop: 33.80.
KIM (Kimco Realty--$49.49; -0.15): Splits 3:2 effective 12-24-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kim.html
STATUS: Took a big gap down last week after KIM announced the issuance of additional shares. It had recently broken from a large ascending wedge (pattern highs at 50), and was making a test of the move when the announcement came. KIM has held firm at the 50 day MVA (49.29), but a bounce has been hindered by the resistance of the short-term MVA's (49.79). We are looking for a strong move over those MVA's and its former pattern highs for positions on a run back up going into the split. It could take a few more sessions to wait for the move, but we have seen these drops on news of new issuances, and solid stocks in good pattern have a tendency to recover nicely. Target: 54.
PLAY: 50.32 on continued strong, above average volume, with stock. Stop: 48.75.
CONTINUING CANDIDATES REMAINING PLAYS: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date.
Watchlist:
ACS ($103.38; +2.87): Still anticipating an announcement, but there is no clear date. ACS made an excellent move the last two sessions, although today's move was on sharply reduced volume (576,600; average 720,500). Still riding positions and keeping stops where we are comfortable, but it could need to test back at least to the upper channel line to its long-term trend, at 99.
APPB ($36.54; +0.41): Has made a nice move, but could be due for a pullback, so we are protecting positions. It hit 36.89 Monday with a loose 'tombstone' doji (a topping sign), and then moved up today on lower volume (515,400; average 440,000). We will see if it can catch the short-term MVA's (10 day at 35.41, 18 day at 34.61) on a drop back on lower volume.
JEC ($68.12; +1.27): Just continues up, although volume is going steadily in the other direction. It made it over the convergence of its 18 and 50 day MVA's today (67.30), so we will see if it can hold on and form a playable pattern.
SLM ($81.80; -0.88): Continued down harder today after giving up its 50 day (84.13) Friday, with volume increasing to 897,000 (average 666,000). There is quite a bit of potential support at 80 from prior prices. Not pretty.
STJ ($74.64; -1.22): Tried a move Friday and Monday, but there was no volume, and it fell back today, holding its 18 day MVA (73.85; 50 day at 72.17). STJ has been trying to hang on after dropping back on a downgrade (following a suspect breakout from a small double bottom with handle), but it needs more time. The 50 day is back at 72.17.
THC ($59.54; -0.25): Bouncing along its 50 day (58.84). It made a bounce Friday, but could not hold and sold back again the last two sessions. The wedging pattern over support is not the best, but the aggressive can play a move over 61 on increased volume (up to 2.12 million; about average) with stock and/or January $55 calls to buy. Recent high at 62.78.
TJX ($37.39; -0.83): Erratic as it tries to hold the short-term MVA's (18 day at 37.40). We have been anticipating another test of the 50 day (36.33), which it might need to settle down and set up another move.
Plays:
EASI (Engineered Support--$30.40; -1.58; optionable): Aerospace/Defense.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/easi.html
BACKGROUND: EASI last announced a 5:4 split on 2-1-2001 with a board meeting at a price of $28.50. Before that it announced on 6-12-98 at a price of $26.50. The company has sufficient shares for a 3:2 split.
STATUS: EASI retreated as ordered, giving a nice put play as it tapped through the target of 30 today at its low of 26.60. Quite a bit of support here, so we could get a bounce that will chase any remaining positions. If after the bounce we get more strong selling (volume way up today at 914,700; average 517,400) through today's low, it could be an aggressive play further down to 25. Quite a drop already, though (this one started from 43; the November high was 53).
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Perhaps after a bit of a bounce that fails, a move back through 29.60 on continued strong selling volume.
POSITION: January $35 puts to buy (UFE MG).
FLIR (Flir Systems--$46.41; +1.16): Scientific & Technical Instruments.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
STATUS: Has made another higher low after its most recent retreat from the 49 range. The 50 day MVA (42.23) has been support on the last two drops, and although this bounce started with weak volume last Friday, today it made a strong move, with volume of 480,600 (average 384,200). Not jumping in on this momentum move, but we are now eyeing the recent highs for a breakout of this ragged ascending wedge. High is 49.55 from November.
BUY POINT: 49.67 on volume of 500,000. Stop: 46.19.
POSITION: Stock and/or April $45 calls to buy (FFQ DI).
GTK (Gtech Holdings--$45.81; -0.13; optionable): Software.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gtk.html
STATUS: GTK has been a steady performer, and after taking a hit with earnings it made a solid bounce from the 50 day MVA (42.28) on great volume. It has cleared the short-term MVA's (44.89), but now has slowed as it approaches its high (47.50), showing a doji today with volume dipping way back to 300,100 (average 427,600). From here it looks to rest a bit, and we will look for the short-term MVA's to provide support this time, setting up the next move. Target: 50.
BUY POINT: After holding the 45 range on a lower volume pullback, a move back over 46 on above average volume. Stop: 42.89.
POSITION: Stock and/or March $40 calls to buy (GTK CH - low open interest).
IGT (International Game Technology--$67.43; +0.73; optionable): Merger with SLOT approved.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itg.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that IGT has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-5-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Announced after hours Friday that the company's merger with SLOT cleared regulatory scrutiny. It responded with a move up from its 10 day MVA (65.05) on nice volume Monday, but that move could be stalled as IGT closed with a doji today on lower, but still strong volume of 1.56 million (average 1.32 million). We could still get more of a move, so are still eyeing the target of 75 with existing positions; if we get a dip back to test the 10 day, we will see about new or additional positions if we can get a strong move up from there.
BUY POINT: After a test of the 10 day that holds, a move back over 66.50 on increased volume. Stop: 63.
POSITIONS: Stock and/or January $60 calls to buy (IGT AL).
RMD (Resmed--$55.05; -0.60; optionable): Health services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rmd.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 2-25-00 with a board meeting. The stock price was $68.
STATUS: We were looking for a bounce to set up a put play, and Friday and Monday RMD again tested the 50 day MVA (56.21). It dipped from that resistance today, but volume was weaker at 111,500 (average 230,500), which is not the strong selling we are looking for. However, we will still see if it can pick up momentum, setting up a quick play on a drop through the 54 level. The target on a put is the 200 day MVA (51.36).
PLAY: A drop through 54 on above average volume.
POSITION: January $60 puts to buy (RMD AL).
POST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:
Plays:
FMBI (First Midwest Bancorp--$28.92; +0.14; no options): Split 5:4 effective 12-17-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fmbi.html
STATUS: Made a nice breakout move on the split (somewhat unusual, but we liked the pattern, and good pattern we can ride through a split with caution). From here we are watching carefully as today FMBI again reached up to a high of 29.24 (and hit a low of 28.45) before closing with a very loose doji. Although it closed up, volume dipped to 88,300 (average 94,400). We were targeting 32 on this move, but from here we could see a retreat to the 10 day MVA (28.14), with recent consolidation levels.
PLAY: For new positions, a move up on above average volume after a lower volume drop holds the 10 day MVA. Stock only. Stop: 27.
Watchlist:
CACI ($40.63; +0.38): Split 2:1 effective 12-7-01. Has tested its recent move (and the 18 day MVA, at 38.36). It tried a bounce but today gapped up and reversed, so we will likely get another test before we see another move. It could need the rest after gaining 100% since September. Made a very nice pre-split move that continued up on the split - but is now testing the m
CHBS ($29.00; -0.14): Split 3:2 effective 12-13-01. Holding over the 10 day MVA (28.31), looking for support to continue to hold and for CHBS to form more of a handle here (in its cup dating back to May). The breakout buy point is 29.97 on volume of 600,000, with stock and/or January $26.63 calls to buy (ULH AW).
LYTS ($17.20; +0.05): Split 3:2 effective 12-7-01. Post-split LYTS has been moving in an erratic handle to cup dating back to the early October. After the huge volume Monday LYTS hit the buy point today, but volume was back below average. An odd pattern, and this one is for the aggressive, looking now for a move over 17.50 on volume of 40,000, with stock.
MIK ($32.90; +1.05): Split 2:1 effective November 15. Moved the NYSE 12.12.01 - symbol change to MIK. Has made some very nice moves for us, but appears to be tired. We are going to drop for now, but keep an eye on it. After at least four moves since the breakout, typically we will see a test lower. The 18 day MVA is at 30.55, with the 50 day back at 27.76.
WFMI ($41.95; +0.42): Split 2:1 on June 5. Another doji under the resistance of the short-term MVA's (10 day at 42.31), this time with volume climbing to 929,300 (average 786,700). We could still get a drop, and are watching the 50 day below at 39.33.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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