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stock recommendation, stock market recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CAT
Thursday night play results:
BWS: Still set up nicely to deliver a strong move
JSDA: Nice doji at the 90 day MA
LEN: Ready to move.
CAT: Diving lower on strong volume.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 09/23/2006
CTV (Commscope--$31.44; -0.15; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctv.html
STATUS: Cup. Nice 19 week cup has formed around the 50 day EMA (29.68). CTV ran up to the base highs last week and then faded with the market to end the week, but after tapping the 18 day EMA (30.55) on the Friday low it rebounded to close just about flat. Nice 6 to 3 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying that has CTV scoping out the breakout to a six year high. Nice shakeout Friday setting up the move higher.
Volume: 567.6K Avg Volume: 1.136M
BUY POINT: $32.25 Volume=1.5M Target=$38.00 Stop=$30.45
POSITION: CTV AF - Jan. $30c (64 delta, 45 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ctv.html
Play Date: 09/23/2006
LTD (The Limited--$27.06; +0.56; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/ltd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. In the past this stock was rather limited in its potential, but with some outstanding 7 to 1 accumulation in this 16 week base, there is a lot of buying ongoing that says LTD is ready to break to a new all-time high. Volume faded to well below average last week as the stock came back to form the handle as it tested near support at the 18 day EMA (26.49). Money flow is surging higher ahead of price, and while the market was lower Friday, LTD was up on some rising volume. Ready to make its move.
Volume: 1.771M Avg Volume: 1.984M
BUY POINT: $27.41 Volume=3M Target=$31.65 Stop=$26.35
POSITION: LTD AE - Jan. $25c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ltd.html
Play Date: 09/23/2006
SMSI (Smith Micro Software--$14.10; -0.01; optionable): Wireless communication software products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smsi.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Some solid volume spikes last week as SMSI reversed the Tuesday dip lower and intraday rebound ($100M shelf offering) and then on Thursday when it gapped higher. Like to see those upside volume spikes as a stock nears the end of its pattern. Speaking of patterns, this is a 12 week base sporting positive accumulation, and that sets up the breakout toward a six-year high.
Volume: 564.31K Avg Volume: 977.068K
BUY POINT: $14.45 Volume=1.5M Target=$17.35 Stop=$13.44
POSITION: QPM AV - Jan. $12.50c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/smsi.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 09/23/2006
XING (Qiao Zing Telephone--$12.91; -0.37; optionable): Chinese wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xing.html
STATUS: Breakout test. XING blasted higher to start last week, moving out of a 10 week ascending base formed over the 50 day EMA (11.28). Strong volume on the break higher, and now testing that move on lower trade, tapping the 10 day EMA (12.58) on the intraday low and rebounding to cut the losses. May snug up a bit more toward the 10 day EMA before it breaks higher, but with that recovery Friday we are ready to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 609.323K Avg Volume: 1.022M
BUY POINT: $13.05 Volume=1.1M Target=$15.50 Stop=$12.47
POSITION: QAE AV - Jan. $12.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/xing.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/23/2006
NTE (Nam Tai Electronics--$12.51; +0.01; optionable): Contract telecom electronics manufacturing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nte.html
STATUS: Put. NTE has had a rough go of it, cutting its Q3 guidance and tumbling lower the past 2 months in a series of rather spectacular declines. One of those was to start September when it cut its guidance. After that collapse it has rebounded this month to the 18 day EMA (12.83), tapping at that level midweek on continued below average volume. Looks ready to resume the decline after this low volume test. A move to the target lands a 55%ish gain.
Volume: 193.1K Avg Volume: 483.443K
BUY POINT: $12.42 Volume=485K Target=$10.65 Stop=$12.87
POSITION: NTE XV - Dec. $12.50p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nte.html
Play Date: 09/23/2006
RIG (Transocean--$69.96; -1.21; optionable): Offshore drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rig.html
STATUS: Put. The offshore drillers found some life early in the month with the CVX announcement of the successful deepwater and deep zone field extension in the Gulf. After that it started the same old story, stalling at the down trendline that began in early May. Still showing poor price/volume action of late, and it failed at the 50 day EMA (71.31) last week. Looking for it to continue the downtrend after this test. A move to the target lands a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 6.624M Avg Volume: 6.588M
BUY POINT: $69.51 Volume=7.5M Target=$65.50 Stop=$70.45
POSITION: RIG WN - Nov. $70p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/rig.html
Continuing plays ready to move:
BWS
DLLR
HOV
LEN
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, AKAM, CCJ, CELG, FLR, GME, MGPI, MRVL, NVDA, SGMS, WM
AAPL: Testing back toward the 18 day EMA on lower, below average volume.
AKAM: Still working laterally after the strong early September run, waiting for the 10 day EMA to rise up to it.
CCJ: Fell to the 200 day SMA, through the bottom of the recent base but not a breakdown yet.
NVDA: Down to the 10 day EMA on rising but still below average volume Friday. The volume is not what we like, but it is still easily in the uptrend. That is running head on into the May high, making this a time to be vigilant just as with SP500 and DJ30.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock market recommendation
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