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us stock market, stock watch
Begin Part 2 of 3
BONUS PLAYS:
IMCL (Imclone Systems--$63.47; +1.87; optionable): Biotech.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imcl.html
STATUS: Dropped hard from the 70 level this week, taking out its 50 day MVA (64.56) on big volume Wednesday. Today saw a relief bounce, with IMCL moving back up toward the 50 day, but only reaching 64.11 as volume dropped sharply (2.92 million; average 2.3 million). This present a classic entry point for a put play, as after a stock takes out support on strong volume and then tests on lower volume, we can expect a stronger drop back. On the move, targeting October consolidation lows at 55. Wednesday's low was 60.85.
BUY POINT: A drop through 62 on increased volume.
POSITION: January $70 or $75 puts to buy (QCI MN or QCI MO - check deltas, etc. with broker).
APD (Air Products & Chemicals--$47.64; +0.52; optionable): Computer hardware.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apd.html
STATUS: Made a strong move up this week in the handle to its 4.5 month cup. After showing huge volume on the move, it rested Wednesday but made a small move back up today, with volume back above the average at 857,300 (average 801,800). Trying to breakout, and we are looking for a move over the handle high of 48.09. Target: 56.
BUY POINT: 48.21 on volume of 1.2 million. Stop: 44.84.
POSITION: Stock and/or March $45 calls to buy (APD CI).
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK: No announcements from BBY or BBBY, although BBY made a nice move with earnings.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAY:
DIAN (Dianon Systems--$56.90; +0.58; optionable): Forecast to announce a split in 1-17-02 with earnings. At this time the company cannot confirm this date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dian.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that DIAN has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 10-25-00 at which no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Broke out last week from its July-November range (42-55), making a huge move on massive volume. It hit a high of 60 before dipping back, and is showing a nice, gradual pullback on reduced volume. Today it pushed back up slightly, with volume steady at 263,100 (average 195,600). Looking for DIAN to hold the recent pattern highs (with the 10 day MVA, at 55), and set up another nice move. Excellent money low and buying. Target: If it gets past 60, looking at 65 initially.
BUY POINT: After holding 55 on this pullback, a strong move back up on increased volume. If it hold 56, looking for a move back over 57.50 on increased volume. Stop: 53.48.
POSITION: Stock and/or February $50 calls to buy (UID BJ - no open interest at this time for this or the nest month out, May).
BEST PLAYS: Besides the plays set forth below as best plays, there are some other stocks that also look good. These include Continuing Candidates SLM and APPB.
MARKET FAVORITES BEST PLAYS:
1) NTAP - Gave the move up, now ready to move down
2) EMLX - One of the few holding up well
NTAP (Network Appliance--$21.40; -2.18; optionable): Computer hardware.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntap.html
STATUS: Made a great move in December, and we included it last weekend on the test of the breakout. It made another solid move, but showed weakness Wednesday and dropped back today, getting up out of positions. Volume was up on the drop at 12.47 million (average 12.1 million), and it closed right at the 10 day MVA. We are looking for more of a drop in market weakness, through the 18 day (20.15) with a target of 18 (November highs) and perhaps the 50 day MVA at 17.
BUY POINT: In a weak Nasdaq, a move below 21 on increased volume.
POSITION: January $25 puts to buy (NUL ME).
EMLX (Emulex--$36.59; -3.00; optionable): Computer hardware.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/emlx.html
STATUS: Fell back with the market, but volume was down substantially from Wednesday's move up (11.6 million; average 8.9 million). EMLX held the 18 day MVA (35.73) to close, still within the range of its handle (to a cup dating back to may with highs at 50, formed deep in its base). We will see if it can hold support through more weakness, and give us a breakout. Target: 50.
BUY POINT: 40.94 on volume of 13 million. Stop: 38.07 (7%).
POSITION: April $35 calls to buy (UMQ DG).
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT BEST PLAYS
1) BRL - Holding the pattern
2) GNSS - A put play on more weakness
3) FDC - Setting up an ascending wedge
4) NDN - Ascending wedge looking good
BRL (Barr Laboratories--$77.91; +0.03; optionable): Researching a split date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 5-31-00 in conjunction with a board meeting, at a price of $52. The annual shareholder meeting was on 10-25-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. There are sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Continues in its lateral pattern. BRL is holding over the 10 day MVA (76.87) on light volume, today showing a loose doji on volume of 464,500 (average 1.1 million). BRL made triple tops at 90 in July-October, but after retreating to 60 in November it has made a nice recovery. The run looks good, as BRL took out its 200 day MVA (70.53) in November and then consolidated, and then took out its 50 day (currently 75.20) with a strong move last week before pulling laterally again. Looking for it to hold and show a strong breakout. Target: 90.
BUY POINT: 78.86 on volume of 1.5 million. Stop: 74.
POSITION: Stock and/or February $75 calls to buy (BRL BO).
GNSS (Genesis Microchip--$64.90; -4.26; optionable): Semiconductor. Working on a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gnss.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that GNSS has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-20-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Has made a nice run, but stalled this week and finally fell back hard today (volume up to 3.6 million; average 2.54 million). It closed back below recent support from the 10 day MVA (65.44), and the next level of support is the 18 day at 62.14. We will see how it handles that level, but if we get some high volume selling through that support we can look at a put play in market weakness, targeting the 50 day, which at 52.40 is at the level of its early-November highs. One that can really move, so after a play down we can look at flipping it in a return to market strength.
BUY POINT: A drop through 62 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: January $70 puts to buy (QFE MN).
FDC (First Data--$76.40; -0.93; optionable): Working on a forecast date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdc.html
BACKGROUND: Last split was a 2:1 on 11-18-96 at a stock price of $80. The annual shareholder meeting was on 1-11-01 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Stalled at the recent high, but is holding on pretty well. Today it tapped back to its 18 day MVA (75.26) but rebounded to close on the 10 day (76.06). FDC took out its former (July) high when it moved out of a reverse head and shoulders in early November, and since has made a nice move up along the 18 day. We were looking for Monday's solid bounce to take out the recent high (77.93), but if it can hold support at the 10 day it could set up an ascending wedge and make another try at breaking out with a better market. FDC has made two tests of the 18 day since its breakout, we could see a couple of more bounces on this move. Target: 87.
BUY POINT: 78.05 on volume of 2.4 million (up to 1.8 million today; average 2.1 million).
POSITION: Stock and/or February $75 calls to buy (FDC BO).
NDN (99 Cents Only Stores--$38.49; +0.28; optionable): Retail. Researching a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ndn.html
STATUS: Showing something of an ascending wedge in its handle. NDN has held strong at support (18 day MVA currently at 37.57) after dropping back hard from its recent move up in the right side of its 2.5-month cup (with something of a double bottom configuration). It had made a wild spike up to 42 on its last run before reversing on high volume, so holding support and forming this handle is good action. It tried a run Wednesday, hitting 39.90 before pulling back to close, but has settled back with a couple of dojis since, on lower volume (down to 169,800 today; average 419,400). At its current level it is making a higher low, and we will look for it to hold the 18 day for another attempt at a breakout. We will watch the recent high at 42 on a move up, targeting 45.
BUY POINT: Breakout: After holding here or at the 18 day, 40.02 on volume of 600,000. Stop: 37.22 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or March $35 calls to buy (NDN CG).
PRE-SPLITS BEST PLAYS: Remember, we try to grab these as they break out of good patterns or as they start a run right before the split. Not looking for home runs, but looking for those $3 to $4 moves running into the split, watching for topping signs and potential resistance. Not huge money, but it can be very steady. We set our initial stops at the 7-8% range below the purchase price (or just below obvious support), and move them up on a move to preserve our profits.
1) SYMC - Downside action for some quick money.
2) XRAY - Looking for it to hold on the test
3) CPRT - Pulling back from the upper channel
SYMC (Symantec--$64.12; -4.68; optionable): Splits 2:1 effective February 1. Internet security software.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/symc.html
STATUS: Was in a nice handle to a its double bottom base, but took a big hit today. SYMC took out the support of its 18 day MVA (66.10) and recent handle lows, falling on sharply higher, strong volume of 3.2 million (average 2.68 million). We will see if the stock gives a bit of a test toward the 18 day, but on a failure we are looking for a strong drop back to a target of the 50 day MVA (60.81).
PLAY: After a test of the 50 day, a drop back through 63.60 on continued strong volume, with January $70 puts to buy (SYQ MN).
XRAY (Dentsply Internat--$49.04; -0.49; optionable): Medical instruments. Splits 3:2 effective February 1.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
STATUS: XRAY made a big move Wednesday, hitting a new all-time high of 51.14, but pulling well back to close at 49.53. Today it gapped up but reversed, pulling back on much lower volume (190,100; average 231,500) but holding to close at its prior December high (48.80), which it made upon breaking from its extended ranging pattern at 43-46. A lot of volatility here, and the gap up and reversal usually points toward more selling. However, with the lighter volume and the hold of support today, we are looking for XRAY to hold on here and set up another move. It will likely take a couple of sessions to settle down, and could visit the 10 day MVA, at 47.87. Target of 57.
PLAY: After holding 48-48.75, a run back over 49 on above average volume, with stock and/or January $45 calls to buy (XAQ AI).
CPRT (Copart--$36.35; -1.41; optionable): Auto parts. Splits 3:2 effective 1-22-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cprt.html
STATUS: Made a nice move up, but showed us topping signs (smaller daily moves up, a loose doji on increased volume at resistance) and moved back down again today. However, volume was down on the move (626,800; average 751,700), and the stock closed over its prior closing high (with its 10 day MVA, at 35.83). CPRT has been in a strong trend up, and we will see if it can hold the 18 day (34.98; 50 day at 32.78) again to set up another move we can play going toward the split. The present move failed at its upper channel trendline drawn from its December tops (currently at 38). Upon catching support, we will target that trendline on another move.
PLAY: After a settling back to the 35 range, positions with stock and/or January $32.50 calls to buy (KQJ AZ - under 100 open interest, February available next week) on a strong move back over 36. Stop: 34.
PAST SPLITS BEST PLAYS
1) FIC - In a handle
FIC (Fair Isaac & Co--$62.90; -0.88; optionable): Business services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fic.html
STATUS: After a strong breakout move, FIC tested the move but held, moving back up from the breakout point. We look for the former breakout point (60) to hold on a test, and now FIC has turned laterally over its 10 day MVA (62.67; 18 day at 61.64). Today it pulled back with the market, but after hitting 62 pulled back up to close over the 10 day, moving on higher, below average volume of 135,300 (average 196,800). For positions are looking for a move over the breakout high. Has been a strong performer, and still looks good. Target: All-time high at 69.90.
BUY POINT: 65.12 on above average volume. Stop: 60.56.
POSITION: Stock and/or April $60 calls to buy (FIC DL).
CONTINUING CANDIDATES BEST PLAYS:
1) IGT - Holding up well
2) THC - Trying to hold support on strong volume
3) AZO - Still in the consolidation
4) ACS - A covered call or put play
IGT (International Game Technology--$66.55; +0.07; optionable): Merger with SLOT approved on Friday the 14th.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itg.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that IGT has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-5-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: IGT moved up from its 10 day MVA (currently 65.53) on nice volume Monday after Friday's news that its merger was SLOT had been approved, but that move stalled as IGT was unable to maintain the move. However, it has held on well, dipping back slightly, showing a couple of dojis as volume dips back steadily (773,900 today; average 1.3 million). At its low today of 66.22 it held the former high of 66.20, which is a show of strength. If it can continue to hold, we will look for another move up, but we will want to see more strong volume push it as we eye the target of 75 with existing positions.
BUY POINT: After holding here or at the 10 day, a move back over 68 on above average volume. Stop: 63.24.
POSITIONS: Stock and/or January $60 calls to buy (IGT AL).
THC (Tenet Healthcare--$58.50; +0.17; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thc.html
STATUS: THC had been bouncing along its 50 day MVA (58.81), pushed down each run by resistance at 61. Wednesday THC gave up the 50 day on higher volume, and we were looking for a put after a test of resistance. We got the test today as THC tapped up to 59.15, but pulled back for a doji. Volume picked up again, coming in very strong at 2.8 million (average 2.07 million), closing with a doji. Off of the high volume doji, we could get a bounce, but we are still looking for it to fail and fall back with strong volume on the selling, setting up a put. On that strong selling, we are targeting the September-October lows at 54 (200 day at 52.23).
BUY POINT: A move through Wednesday's low of 58.10.
POSITION: January $65 puts to buy (THC MM).
AZO (Autozone--$74.60; -0.15; optionable): Auto Parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/azo.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in March of 1994 at a price of $58. The annual shareholder meeting was on 12-14-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized.
STATUS: Has formed a tight consolidation since its amazing breakout that hit 79.90 on huge volume when it announced its earnings. Since then it gradually pulled back to the support of its 10 day MVA (73.59), showing numerous dojis as it moves laterally. Today it hit the buy point, but volume remained sedate, so we are patiently waiting for a stronger move. We are initially targeting the breakout high, and see how it handles that.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: From here or after continuing to hold support, a move over 75.50 on volume of 2 million (average 1.6 million; today 1.2 million). Stop: 70.22 (7%, 18 day MVA at 72.04).
POSITION: Stock and/or March $70 calls to buy (AZO AN).
ACS (Affiliated Computer--$102.00; -0.50; optionable): Information Technology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acs.html
STATUS: ACS moved up this week, taking out its upper channel trendline (which has been resistance in this uptrend since late 2000), but Tuesday's move up to a new high (103.38) was on much lower volume, and after a doji followed we saw a slight drop today, showing a loose doji as volume climbed back to 657,000 (average 715,000). We have been riding positions on this one, but wary of a drop, and now it looks ready to fall back. When a stock jumps over its upper channel, it usually falls back toward the lower channel. For a move down to the 18 day MVA (98.24), we can look at selling some January $100 calls (selling for $5.20 at the close of trading). Without existing positions, we can look at a put play. We will keep an eye on the 10 day MVA in the 99.86 range for potential support, but on the strong volume today ACS can drop to the lower support, which nearly coincides with the November high (97.45). When the stock finally does hold, that is the point at which the calls would be bought back at the lower price.
BUY POINT: 102 on a pullback to the 98 range.
POSITION: January $100 calls to sell (ACS AT). Alternatively, January $110 puts to buy (ACS MB).
****
REMAINING PLAYS:
****
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS REMAINING PLAYS:
Watchlist:
DHR ($80.40; -0.41): Forecast to announce a split in late January in conjunction with earnings. At this time, the company cannot confirm a date for earnings release. Lowered its outlook last week and was downgraded. It has made a weak bounce from support from recent price levels at 56, and is currently holding over its 50 day (58.26)and right at the short-term MVA's (59.53). The pattern is forming up the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern. The aggressive play is down from here. The breakdown of the pattern is 56. Today it showed a 'star' doji on low volume, so is not showing much right now to look for. We will see how it shakes out.
SRCL ($62.21; +0.11): Forecast to announce a split on 2-19-02 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings. Continues to crawl up its 10 day MVA (60.65) on light volume. With another doji today, we are still looking for a drop back to support (18 day at 59.187) that could set up another move. Protecting positions.
EDS ($70.80; +0.62): We are researching a date. Has made recent double tops and fallen back, but is trying to climb back up after having held at the 50 day MVA (66.93). A bit erratic on this bounce, without much of a pattern. For positions from here we would need to see a move over the high of 72.45 with volume in the 4 million range (average 3.38 million; today up to 3.17 million), with stock and/or March $70 calls to buy (EDS CN).
MI ($63.90; +0.30): We are researching a forecast date. Is holding up after making a fourth run from the 18 day MVA (62.48), but we are not expecting more after today's lower-volume move up (240,200; average 259,500). After four runs (following a breakout), a stock usually needs to test lower and digest gains. The 50 day is back at 60.61.
BMS ($49.36; -0.51): We are researching a date in January. After the weak breakout early this month, BMS has dipped back, today again closing back below its 18 day MVA (49.90). It could still drop to the 50 day (48.06).
THQI ($49.40; -3.94): We are working on a date. A failed breakout turned into a failed test of the 50 day (53.86), and today THQI dropped on strong volume (2.02 million; average 1.55 million) back toward the 200 day (48.07). Has some further support there from October consolidation lows, so we will see if it can hold.
XL ($90.80; -0.80): Researching a date. Continues to move in a tight range, holding its 50 day MVA (90.20) but constrained by the short-term (18 day at 91.65). Volume continues to be low, but we are watching for a possible jump out of its slumber. The break to a new high is a move over 96.50 on volume of 2.7 million, and the aggressive play is on a move over 93 on above average volume, both with stock and/or January $90 calls to buy (XL AR).
SONC ($34.60; -1.06): We are working on a date. SONC made a steady move up on very low volume the past couple of weeks, but after taking out the recent high (hitting 35.90) with a couple of loose dojis, it gave the anticipated drop back today. Not bad action though, as it held the 10 day (34.56) to close while testing its 18 day at its intraday low of 34. Volume remained low, so we will see if it can stay in control and hold support to set up a better pattern and move.
End Part 2 of 3
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us stock market
stock watch
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