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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CRM; ICE; LRCX; MVSN
Strong plays:
1) HITT: Ready for a new high
2) NIHD: Nice test into the weekend
3) PKE: Nice set up
4) BLKB: Nice test to end the week
5) CVD: Another test to end the week sets it up to move
6) OPLK: Ready to continue the breakout.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 10/07/2006
ABI (Applera Corp-Appliaed Biosystems--$33.53; -0.13; optionable): Products for genomics research
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abi.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. ABI is looking for a 5 year high with a breakout from its current 13 week base. Solid 3 to 0 accumulation shows plenty of buying in the base to set up the breakout move. Solid money flow as well. Tried to make the move last week, but no volume. Tested back Friday, and looking for volume to show up this week as it resumes the move.
Volume: 720.5K Avg Volume: 1.229M
BUY POINT: $33.75 Volume=1.8M Target=$38.85 Stop=$32.65
POSITION: ABI AF - Jan. $30c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/abi.html
Play Date: 10/07/2006
ADS (Alliance Data--$57.33; -0.71; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ads.html
STATUS: Test breakout. ADS surged Tuesday and Wednesday, breaking out from a 12 week cup with handle base on some solid trade. It faded to end the week, coming back to test the move on very low, below average volume. That shows us very little selling, just settling back on some short term profit taking. May come back to test the 10 day EMA (56.29) before rebounding. Whether it moves higher from the Friday close or tests further we want to pick it up as it rebounds on rising trade. Strong 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying in the base. Ready to move in on the rebound that starts ADS back toward a new all-time high.
Volume: 590.6K Avg Volume: 877.017K
BUY POINT: $58.11 Volume=950K Target=$66.85 Stop=$56.11
POSITION: ADS CL - Mar. $60c (52 delta) or ADS CK - Mar $55c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ads.html
Play Date: 10/07/2006
HITT (Hittite Microwave--$44.60; +0.77; optionable): Analog and mixed-signal integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hitt.html
STATUS: Pennant. After a good run in August that took HITT out of a short 7 week ascending base. It has based up again, waiting for the 50 day EMA (42) to rise up to push the stock higher. Solid 3 to 0 accumulation in the short base as it holds the prior breakout. Money flow is running higher once more ahead of price. Looking for this market leader to make another break higher to a new all-time high.
Volume: 250.5K Avg Volume: 365K
BUY POINT: $45.15 Volume=548K Target=$51.95 Stop=$42.21
POSITION: QDH CI - Mar. $45c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hitt.html
Play Date: 10/07/2006
NIHD (NII Hldgs--$63.70; -0.25; optionable): Digital wireless communications in Latin America
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nihd.html
STATUS: Test breakout. NIHD surged higher with a strong gap to end September on news of a big contract. It tested, bounced and then tested again to end last week, still holding the breakout. Nice surge out of a 20 week cup with handle base, nice test. Strong leader and we are ready to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 1.804M Avg Volume: 1.657M
BUY POINT: $64.55 Volume=2.4M Target=$74.45 Stop=$62.39
POSITION: QHQ AM - Jan. $65c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nihd.html
Play Date: 10/07/2006
PKE (Park Electrochemical--$31.80; -0.15; optionable): Printed circuit boards
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pke.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Big surge from PKE in late September as it reported excellent earnings. That big move formed the right side of its 17 week base in one move, and it needed to consolidate some afterwards. It spent the next two weeks doing that, easing back while the 10 day EMA (31.46) rose to meet it. Now the 10 day is there and PKE has had its rest. Looking for strong volume to return as PKE continues the move higher. Strong money flow is leading higher. A top stock in terms of sales and earnings growth rates. Looking for a six year high as it makes the breakout.
Volume: 130.6K Avg Volume: 187.235K
BUY POINT: $33.11 Volume=281K Target=$39.75 Stop=$31.35
POSITION: PKE CF - Mar. $30c (63 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pke.html
Play Date: 10/07/2006
TRAD (Tradestation--$16.11; +0.69; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trad.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong move off the 200 day SMA (14.53) last week, clearing the handle highs on Friday for the breakout from its 8 month base. Strong volume pushed it all the way, coming in above average Tuesday through Friday. Solid pattern and breakout. Looking to take some positions on this current move and then add positions when it shows us a successful test, i.e. where it comes back and holds the breakout then starts back up on rising trade. On of the top stocks in terms of sales and earnings growth.
Volume: 855.638K Avg Volume: 428.65K
BUY POINT: $16.24 Volume=450K Target=$19.48 Stop=$15.18
POSITION: ULR CC - Mar. $15c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/trad.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/03/2006
BLKB (Blackbaud--$23.54; -0.46; optionable): Software for nonprofit organizations
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blkb.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Solid move early in the week, then a fade Friday but on very, very low volume. It held above the 10 day EMA (23.35) on the close. Looking for it to turn back up after this test to give us our entry. To recap: Strong volume the past week, jumping well above average this week as BLKB rebounds off a late week test of the 50 day EMA (22.35) in its 3 month base. Higher lows up the 50 day EMA set up the breakout, and a lateral move in September looks to be the quiet before the storm. Strong money flow is leading the way higher, complementing the outstanding 6 to 1 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume). Strong on both fundamentals and technical pattern. Ready to move in as it makes the breakout to a new all-time high.
Volume: 139.251K Avg Volume: 284.48K
BUY POINT: New: $24.22 (orig. $23.89) Volume=433K Target=$28.45 Stop=$22.78
POSITION: QDO CX - Mar. $22.50c (60 delta, no OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/blkb.html
Play Date: 10/04/2006
CVD (Covance--$66.37; -1.13; optionable): Drug development services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvd.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Strong move Wednesday on volume and Thursday on low trade, then a test back to the 18 day EMA (66.15) Friday. Looking for it to hold here and then rebound on volume. That is when we move in. To recap: CVD made us money on its last move after it broke out from an 18 week ascending base formed over the 50 day EMA (64.53). Came back to test that level this past week then after gapping lower Wednesday it rebounded on strong, above average volume, the first such trade in two weeks.
Volume: 238K Avg Volume: 421.465K
BUY POINT: Has tested 66. Buy is now $66.75 on the rebound. Volume=450K Target=$74.95 Stop=$64.62
POSITION: CVD AM - Jan. $65c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cvd.html
Play Date: 10/04/2006
GENZ (Genzyme--$69.61; +0.02; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/genz.html
STATUS: Trendline break. Good move continuation Thursday, but no volume and held that ground Friday on even lower trade. Money flow screaming higher, and looking for GENZ to follow it this week. To recap: Wednesday GENZ broke through its down trendline extending back to the November 2005 peak. It had spent the past 8 weeks bumping up against that trendline (now at 68), measuring it for the breakout. Wednesday that move came on rising, above average volume. Money flow is racing higher ahead of the price and we are ready to move in on a further move as it follows the cash.
Volume: 915.658K Avg Volume: 2.125M
BUY POINT: New: $69.96 (orig. $69.35) Volume=3M Target=$77.95 Stop=$66.98
POSITION: GZQ AU - Jan. $67.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/genz.html
Play Date: 09/30/2006
OPLK (Oplink Communications--$20.28; +0.07; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oplk.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still set to continue the break higher after the nice test of the late September breakout move. Held the 18 day EMA (19.81) on last weeks lows and just waiting for the market to move to give it the trigger to continue on. To recap: OPLK jumped higher last Tuesday on very strong, above average volume, clearing a 4 month cup with handle. Strong break, nice test to end the week, showing a doji at the 10 day EMA. Excellent 5 to 2 accumulation shows plenty of buying to set up the breakout. After this test it is ready to resume the breakout run and link up with a three year high.
Volume: 161.852K Avg Volume: 243.921K
BUY POINT: New: $20.45 (orig. $20.22) Volume=368K Target=$24.45 Stop=$19.55
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/oplk.html
Play Date: 09/23/2006
PFWD (Phase Forward--$12.29; -0.55; no options): Enterprise level software for clinical trial and safety monitoring
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfwd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Faded back hard Friday, slumping to the 10 day EMA (12.27) but on much lower, below average volume. Solid move to that point, so looking for it to reload this week and show us the breakout move. To recap: Nicely formed 19 week base, using the 200 day SMA (10.98) as support. Strong money flow is moving higher ahead of price, complementing the solid 6 to 3 accumulation. If it can continue the move we will take some positions and then look to add on the breakout test.
Volume: 73.723K Avg Volume: 134.38K
BUY POINT: New: $12.72 (orig. $12.31) Volume=272K Target=$14.88 Stop=$11.57
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pfwd.html
Play Date: 09/19/2006
RTEC (Rudolph Technologies--$18.20; -0.31; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rtec.html
Earnings: 11-2-06
STATUS: Cup w/handle. RTEC is working on the handle to a 5 month base, the last 7 weeks forming a short double bottom with handle. It is a leader in its sub-sector and it has taken its time setting up this base. We have been patiently watching it and letting it set up its base. Now it needs to show the breakout move.
Volume: 144.935K Avg Volume: 291.752K
BUY POINT: New: $19.06 (orig. $18.88) Volume=450K Target=$22.75 Stop=$17.65
POSITION: UXH BW - Feb. $17.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rtec.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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