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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: HITT; KNOT; NVDA; NVLS; SEIC; SIMO; UTSI; VTAL
Strong plays:
1) BMRN: Sweet little pattern setting up the next breakout.
2) GME: Volume is up as GME heads toward the new all-time high
3) PLCE: Nice doji looks to have completed the handle to the base.
4) LCAV: Doji at the 10 day EMA indicates it is ready to head back down.
5) HOC: Took the day off after the strong move. Now set to continued.
6) HOLX: Still looks very nice.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 10/11/2006
BMRN (Biomarin Pharmaceuticals--$16.46; +0.37; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmrn.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. BMRN has set up a nice little 6 week base that is giving it a rest from its July and August run after breaking out from a similar pattern in late June. Classic action in the base with the right leg undercutting the left, a solid volume increase as it rallied up to from the second leg, and low volume as BMRN works laterally in the handle. Positive accumulation and surging money flow set the stage for the breakout to a new 5 year high. Nice set up for the next leg higher.
Volume: 1.077M Avg Volume: 798.918K
BUY POINT: $16.62 Volume=1.2M Target=$19.95 Stop=$15.65
POSITION: NUR AC - Jan. $15c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bmrn.html
Play Date: 10/11/2006
GME (Gamestop--$49.05; +1.06; optionable): Electronic game stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gme.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. GME appears to have overcome the PS3 web download issue that sent it lower in late September. It recovered and has put the finishing touches on its 7 month base. After some very low, below average volume to start this month volume jumped Tuesday and Wednesday as GME started higher. Excellent money flow is leading higher, complementing the strong 8 to 4 accumulation. GME is ready to make the break to a new all-time high.
Volume: 1.823M Avg Volume: 1.416M
BUY POINT: $49.15 Volume=2.1M Target=$58.95 Stop=$47.32
POSITION: GME AJ - Jan. $50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gme.html
Play Date: 10/11/2006
PLCE (Childrens Place--$65.21; 0.00; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plce.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Another nice set up from this leader, coming back to tap at the 18 day EMA (62.48) on the Wednesday low and rebounding to close above the 10 day EMA (64.84). We already have a good gain built in, and the breakout is another solid entry point toward more profits. Excellent 7 to 2 accumulation shows plenty of buying to drive the breakout and subsequent run higher. Great base from a great leader that is ready to make its next move.
Volume: 715.52K Avg Volume: 614.698K
BUY POINT: $66.31 Volume=922K Target=$76.45 Stop=$63.45
POSITION: TUY CM - Mar. $65c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/plce.html
Play Date: 10/11/2006
TRMB (Trimble Navigation--$48.95; +0.43; optionable): Positioning devices for commercial and government clients
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trmb.html
STATUS: Ascending base. A solid market leader setting up in a sweet 6 month base. It just made a higher low at the 90 day MA in September and early October, setting the break higher toward a new all-time high. Some outstanding 9 to 3 accumulation (9 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) shows some heavy buying setting up the breakout. Strong money flow is rising ahead of price, and TRMB is primed to make its breakout. Sweet.
Volume: 257.817K Avg Volume: 467.305K
BUY POINT: $49.75 Volume=701K Target=$57.75 Stop=$47.55
POSITION: TUH BJ - Feb. $50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/trmb.html
Downside:
Play Date: 10/11/2006
LCAV (LCA-Vision--$34.57; +0.19; optionable): Laser surgery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lcav.html
STATUS: Put. LCAV gapped sharply lower to start the month on disappointing earnings. It has rebounded to the 10 day EMA (35.13) the past week with volume tailing off the past three sessions. Very low trade Wednesday as it showed a doji below this near resistance. Looking for LCAV to turn over here and continue the selling. A move to the target lands a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 399.653K Avg Volume: 827.655K
BUY POINT: $34.35 Volume=830K Target=$31.85 Stop=$34.72
POSITION: JVQ WG - Nov. $35p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lcav.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/09/2006
CHRS (Charming Shoppes--$14.57; -0.12; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chrs.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still putting in time in the handle to its 7 month base, setting up for a breakout to a new 12 year high. Just have to be patient and let it show us the breakout move. To recap: Excellent 6 to 2 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows the kind of buying that propels strong breakouts and subsequent runs. Nice run to this point but it has taken a rest and is now ready for more. Just waiting for this low volume test to complete the shakeout and deliver the next upside break.
Volume: 954.308K Avg Volume: 1.704M
BUY POINT: $15.21 Volume=2.8M Target=$18.25 Stop=$14.22
POSITION: QSR AC - Jan. $15c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/chrs.html
Play Date: 10/10/2006
HOC (Holly Corp.--$45.75; -0.40; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hoc.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Could not continue the move Wednesday, easing back to the 90 day MA (45.50) on much lower, below average volume. Nice test to set up the continued move. To recap: Part of that big energy run through May, though HOC had more staying power and took that gains on into early August before it peaked. It tumbled lower through mid-September, but found purchase at the 200 day SMA (39.87). It bounced, fell back down to the 200 day, and then bounced again. After stalling at the 'hump' at 43.85 formed in late September, HOC blasted higher Tuesday on a strong shot of above average volume. This one held out longer than most, fell quickly but made a nice double bottom. Looking to move in as it continues the rebound, and looking for a move back up near the August high at 55ish.Volume: 973K Avg Volume: 1.206M
BUY POINT: $46.35 Volume=1.2M Target=$53.95 Stop=$43.89
POSITION: HOC CI - Mar. $45c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hoc.html
Play Date: 10/10/2006
HOLX (Hologic--$47.76; +0.09; optionable): Diagnostic and medical imaging systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/holx.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Paused Wednesday on lower, average trade following that strong surge Tuesday. Nice day off; still ready to make its move. To recap: HOLX is making the breakout move from a 7 month double bottom, forming a nice 10 week double bottom with handle to end the pattern. Nice action the past week as HOLX bounced higher off the 50 day EMA on strong volume, clearing the 200 day SMA (45.56). It then tested Friday and Monday before breaking out Tuesday on a shot of above average volume. Money flow is surging higher and we are ready to move in as HOLX continues to the upside, following the money.
Volume: 1.032M Avg Volume: 1.084M
BUY POINT: $48.28 Volume=1.1M Target=$55.95 Stop=$45.95
POSITION: QHX AJ - Jan. $45c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/holx.html
Play Date: 10/07/2006
NIHD (NII Hldgs--$62.92; -0.79; optionable): Wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nihd.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Fading back to the 10 day EMA (62.29) Wednesday on continued below average volume, putting in some more work on the handle to its 5 month base. Excellent set up for a breakout to a new all-time high.
Volume: 1.228M Avg Volume: 1.648M
BUY POINT: $64.55 Volume=2.4M Target=$74.45 Stop=$62.39
POSITION: QHQ AM - Jan. $65c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nihd.html
Play Date: 10/07/2006
PKE (Park Electrochemical--$32.19; +0.19; optionable): Printed circuit boards
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pke.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Average volume once more as PKE reached higher but it was just testing the waters, meaning no breakout. Still set up very well to make the breakout. To recap: Big surge from PKE in late September as it reported excellent earnings. That big move formed the right side of its 17 week base in one move, and it needed to consolidate some afterwards. It spent the next two weeks doing that, easing back while the 10 day EMA rose to meet it. Now the 10 day is there and PKE has had its rest. Looking for strong volume to return as PKE continues the move higher. Strong money flow is leading higher. A top stock in terms of sales and earnings growth rates. Looking for a six year high as it makes the breakout.
Volume: 162K Avg Volume: 182.155K
BUY POINT: $33.11 Volume=281K Target=$39.75 Stop=$31.35
POSITION: PKE CF - Mar. $30c (63 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pke.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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