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trade stock, top stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ADBE; BRCM; COH; DIOD; GME; GYMB; HITT; LRCX; NVDA; PLCE; SIGM; UARM
Strong plays:
1) BITS: Breaking higher on strong volume after a good test.
2) NVEC: Starting back up off the 50 day EMA on strong volume.
3) TSRA: Breakout on strong volume from a nice base
4) ISE: Ready for the next move
5) NTRI: Nice low volume doji has set up the breakout move
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 10/14/2006
BITS (Bitstream--$9.46; +0.65; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bits.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Strong surge Friday as volume jumped and BITS jumped off the 18 day EMA (8.73) test. This follows the breakout from a 5 month cup with handle base in mid-September. Strong breakout, nice, low volume test, then a strong rebound starting Friday. We like to enter on these tests as they show the buyers moving back into the stock again after the breakout, still wanting it at these higher levels. Nice move to a 5 year high. Money flow is surging higher and BITS is starting to follow it.
Volume: 599.605K Avg Volume: 175.926K
BUY POINT: $9.65 Volume=200K Target=$12.55 Stop=$8.97
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bits.html
Play Date: 10/13/2006
FFIV (F5 Networks--$58.07; -1.90; optionable): Internet traffic management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
EARNINGS: 10-25-06
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Big winner in the second half of 2005 and Q1 2006, FFIV ran out of gas and needed a new base. It fell into the current 6.5 month base. Last week it broke through the 200 day SMA (56.14) as it cleared the 'hump' in the middle of the pattern. It rallied to 60 through Thursday and Friday it fell on some rising, slightly above average volume. A bit of distribution, but looking for a test this week down to the 10 day EMA (57.14) or perhaps the 200 day. Then we pick it up as it rebounds. Looks like this 2005 leader is back.
Volume: 1.118M Avg Volume: 991.644K
BUY POINT: From the Friday close: $60.15. Test the 10 day EMA or the 200 day SMA: 57.75. Volume=1.5M Target=$71.95 Stop=$56.95
POSITION: FLK AL - Jan. $60c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ffiv.html
Play Date: 10/14/2006
NVEC (NVE Corp.--$31.14; +3.38; no options): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvec.html
EARNINGS: 10-18-06 after the close
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. NVEC was a good money maker for us on its last run from July to September as it exploded from a year long dormant spell. After surging over 38 it needed a breather. It came back to the 50 day EMA (28.22) to start October, and has formed a two week double bottom at that key support level. Friday it shot higher on the best volume in three weeks. Looks ready to make a run toward the prior high, one we want to take advantage of as it continues.
Volume: 809.816K Avg Volume: 574.558K
BUY POINT: $31.42 Volume=580K Target=$37.95 Stop=$29.85
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nvec.html
Play Date: 10/14/2006
TSRA (Tessera Technologies--$36.31; +1.82; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsra.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders breakout. Volume jumped Thursday and Friday, and Friday TSRA made the breakout from its 9 month reverse head and shoulders base. It actually broke out in late September and spent the first part of October consolidating laterally over the 18 day EMA (34.35). Then Friday it broke higher on strong volume. Very nice action. Looking to move in as TSRA continues higher. It has already tested the breakout so we are ready to move in as the big money comes back in after the test.
Volume: 1.223M Avg Volume: 709.744K
BUY POINT: $36.57 Volume=710K Target=$42.95 Stop=$34.65
POSITION: TJQ CG - Mar. $35c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tsra.html
Play Date: 10/14/2006
ZUMZ (Zumiez--$32.70; +1.27; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zumz.html
STATUS: Split in April and rallied to early July before falling into the current 3.5 month base. Knifepoint turn at the bottom and a rally back up. Made it to some resistance at 32, tested the 10 day EMA (30.66) last week as it solid back some, and then blasted higher again Friday. Looking to move into some positions as it continues this move on stronger volume.
Volume: 645.142K Avg Volume: 615.229K
BUY POINT: $33.32 Volume=923K Target=$39.95 Stop=$31.78
POSITION: QUY BF - Feb. $30c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/zumz.html
New buy points on current positions:
Play Date: 10/14/2006
ISE (International Securities Exchange--$48.99; -0.21; optionable): Equity and index option exchange
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ise.html
EARNINGS: 10-25-06 before the open
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Sweet pattern is forming, setting up a test of the 10 day EMA (48.35) the past week, forming another handle to the 7 month base. Nice all the way around, using the 200 day SMA as support at the bottom of the base and then rallying up the 18 day EMA (47.42) to form the right side of the base. Nice low volume handle the past week is the calm before the storm. Looking for volume to kick back up as ISE breaks through the top of the handle.
Volume: 419.2K Avg Volume: 555.311K
BUY POINT: $50.21 Volume=833K Target=$57.95 Stop=$47.38
POSITION: ISE AJ - Jan. $50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ise.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/09/2006
CHRS (Charming Shoppes--$14.78; +0.18; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chrs.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working laterally, though it jumped Friday toward the breakout. Volume was not there, however, something that will have to change if CHRS is going to punch on through and show a strong breakout. Still looks solid with a great pattern and surging money flow. To recap: Excellent 6 to 2 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows the kind of buying that propels strong breakouts and subsequent runs. Nice run to this point but it has taken a rest and is now ready for more. Just waiting for this low volume test to complete the shakeout and deliver the next upside break.
Volume: 1.062M Avg Volume: 1.713M
BUY POINT: $15.21 Volume=2.8M Target=$18.25 Stop=$14.22
POSITION: QSR AC - Jan. $15c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/chrs.html
Play Date: 10/07/2006
NIHD (NII Hldgs--$65.01; +0.34; optionable): Wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nihd.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Tried to make the move Friday, hitting 65.76 on the high, but then it faded, giving back most of the gain as volume was just not there. Still looks good but needs to show the volume to tell us the bigger buyers are there as well. Nice 6 month base that just needs some strong trade to send it to a new all-time high.
Volume: 1.128M Avg Volume: 1.64M
BUY POINT: New: $65.25 (orig. $64.55) Volume=2.4M Target=$74.45 Stop=$62.39
POSITION: QHQ AM - Jan. $65c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nihd.html
Play Date: 10/12/2006
NTRI (Nutrisystem--$65.23; +0.32; optionable): Weight loss programs. Wildcard but could announce with earnings.
BACKGROUND: No splits in NTRI's history.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntri.html
Earnings: 10-24-06
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice tight doji on low volume Friday as NTRI held above the 10 day EMA (63.85) as it works on the handle. Still looks ready to make the move. To recap: Gapped higher last Tuesday, trying the breakout from its 5.5 month base. It faded back, but managed to hold the 10 day EMA on the Thursday intraday low and rebounded for a modest gain. This one made us some solid money in its Q1, and now it has set back up to make us some more money. Solid 7 to 4 accumulation in the pattern shows net buying, setting it up for the breakout and run higher.
Volume: 672.81K Avg Volume: 1.939M
BUY POINT: $66.72 Volume=2.9M Target=$79.95 Stop=$63.38
POSITION: NSI AN - Jan. $70c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ntri.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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