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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 2 of 2
Full report issues Wednesday
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ISE; MVSN; SIGM
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 10/17/2006
PENN (Penn National Gaming--$38.81; -0.05; optionable): Resorts and casinos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/penn.html
EARNINGS: 10-26-06
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. PENN jumped higher Friday on strong, above average volume on an upgrade. That almost broke it out of its 25 week base, but it faded back modestly Monday and then showed a big doji Tuesday, reaching down below the 10 day EMA and rebounding to close basically flat. This action is shaking out the last sellers and setting PENN up for the breakout to try for a new all-time high and on toward perhaps another split in the spring.
Volume: 585.536K Avg Volume: 898.588K
BUY POINT: $39.44 Volume=900K Target=$46.95 Stop=$37.35
POSITION: UQN DH - Apr. $40c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/penn.html
Play Date: 10/17/2006
RVSN (Radvision--$19.04; +0.33; optionable): Video conferencing and video telephony
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rvsn.html
EARNINGS: 10-26-04
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Looking for a 6 year high, RVSN has set up nicely in a 9 month base. Nice surge higher to start October, forming the right side of the base, then a handle this past week to shake out some sellers and set up the next move. Tuesday when the market was down RVSN was heading up on rising, above average volume. Looking to move in as it makes the next break, clearing the recent highs in the handle.
Volume: 259.026K Avg Volume: 119.78K
BUY POINT: $19.35 Volume=225K Target=$23.32 Stop=$18.28
POSITION: RJU CW - Mar. $17.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rvsn.html
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ADBE 10/12 FlyPlat 38.12 -0.13 38.74 46.75 3.5M 8M 37.21
Current.
AMX 10/04 Asc Bse 41.84 -0.47 40.21 47.95 2.1M 5.2M 40.34
Current. Ease back on low volume. Typical pullback.
AQNT 10/16 Cup 26.38 -0.45 27.05 32.48 628K 1.4M 25.24
Buy Not Hit. Pullback tapping 25.75 at the intraday low and rallied back on much stronger above average volume. Still in the pattern.
BA 10/02 Cup 82.29 -0.37 80.84 89.95 2.9M 5M 81.98
Current. Pullback tapping 81.50 at the intraday low and rallied back showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on rising volume. Typical pullback. Should be ready to rebound from here.
BHE 09/18 Cup hdl 28.14 -0.79 26.69 30.75 2M 600K 27.98
Current. Gapped down tapping 27.15 at the intraday low and made a fierce rally back on very strong volume surge. Held at support below the 10 day MVA. Showing strength coming off the day's low.
BITS 10/14 Test BO 10.40 +0.16 9.75 12.68 536K 200K 9.44
Current.
BLKB 10/03 Asc Bse 25.13 -0.42 24.59 29.00 292K 433K 24.28
Current. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on low volume. Typical pullback.
BMRN 10/11 DB hdl 16.50 -0.26 16.62 19.95 616K 1.2M 15.89
Current. Gapped down tapping 16.27 at the intraday low and rallied back on low volume. Still in good shape.
BRCM 09/25 Test 50 29.29 -1.53 30.96 35.68 16M 17M 29.32
Current. Gapped down and continued to move down managing to hold the 18 day MVA on below average volume. Stock should hold here.
CHRS 10/09 Cup hdl 14.76 -0.21 15.21 18.25 528K 2.8M 14.22
Buy Not Hit.
COH 09/25 Test BO 36.31 -0.47 35.05 40.48 2.4M 5M 35.55
Current. Pullback tapping 35.57 at the intraday low and rallied back on low volume. May test back to support at 36 before it rebounds.
CRM 09/12 Cup hdl 40.25 -1.08 36.61 42.95 1.3M 3M 39.48
Current. Pullback on low volume testing the 10 day MVA intraday. Looking for a rebound off the 10 day MVA (39.75)
CWTR 09/16 Cup hdl 29.29 -0.85 29.16 35.35 1.2M 1.6M 28.69
Current. Ease back tapping 28.69 at the intraday low and rallied back holding the 10 day MVA on lower, but average volume. Still in good shape.
DIOD 10/03 Test BO 43.58 -0.83 44.45 50.74 397K 475K 42.89
Current. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back on rising volume. Moving up after testing the 50 day MVA.
DRIV 09/09 Test BO 53.06 -1.05 50.34 57.50 734K 1.4M 52.31
Current. Ease back on low volume. Should rebound off the 10 day MVA 52.70. Moving up after testing the 18 day MVA.
EXPD 10/16 DB hdl 46.98 -1.42 48.65 57.45 1.3M 2.4M 45.98
Buy Not Hit.
FFIV 10/13 DB hdl 57.53 -0.49 60.15 71.95 743K 1.5M 56.95
Buy Not Hit. Gapped down testing the 200 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a tight doji on the 10 day MVA on low volume. Still in the pattern. Should be ready to rebound from here.
FORM 10/16 Asc Bse 43.66 -1.28 45.45 53.48 597K 1.7M 42.65
Buy Not Hit. Ease back tapping 42.87 intraday and rallied back holding the 10 day MVA on low volume. Still in forming the base.
GME 10/11 Cup hdl 51.15 -0.61 49.84 58.95 667K 2.1M 49.65
Current. Pullback on very low volume. Typical pullback after nice run.
GYMB 09/19 Cup hdl 45.56 -1.47 37.52 44.68 1.5M 1.4M 44.22
Current. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on stronger above average volume. May continue to test back to 10 day MVA (45)
HITT 10/07 Pennant 49.50 -1.23 45.88 52.45 426K 548K 47.95
Current. Pullback on above average volume. Routine pullback.
HOC 10/10 Dbl btm 47.93 -1.07 46.82 54.50 968K 1.2M 47.11
Current. Pullback on low volume. Still in uptrend.
HOLX 10/10 Dbl btm 48.58 -0.77 48.40 55.95 642K 1.1M 47.55
Current. Gapped down tapping 48.02 at the intraday low and rallied back on very low volume. Looking for a rebound from support at 48
ICON 09/30 Cup hdl 18.06 -0.24 17.44 20.80 227K 665K 17.28
Current.
ISE 10/14 Cup hdl 51.02 +2.37 51.44 58.95 2.1M 833K 48.65
Entered today. Gapped higher on the merger excitement (CME/BOT) in
anticipation of more buying. The move broke it out
of its base on strong volume. Nice.
ISE 09/16 Cup hdl 51.02 +2.37 46.05 52.95 2.1M 550K 48.65
Current.
KNOT 09/23 Cup hdl 24.13 +0.22 21.21 25.55 582K 490K 22.55
Current. Continue to trend higher on strong volume surge.
LIFC 10/16 Asc Bse 31.95 +0.28 32.25 38.75 415K 1.1M 29.98
Buy Not Hit. Moving up the 10 day MVA on low volume. Still in the pattern.
LRCX 09/30 Cup hdl 50.94 -1.14 45.69 54.95 5M 5M 49.95
Current. Gapped down tapping 49.99 at the intraday low and rallied back on above average volume. Still in uptrend.
MOLX 08/28 Cup hdl 38.84 -0.65 36.72 40.95 530K 550K 37.92
Current. Ease back on low volume holding the 18 day MVA. Still in good shape.
MOLX 08/10 Test 50 38.84 -0.65 34.72 40.95 530K 625K 37.92
Current.
MVSN 08/28 DB hdl 26.99 +0.58 24.14 26.95 1.2M 990K 25.65
Current.
NIHD 10/07 Test BO 64.62 -0.59 64.55 74.45 1.3M 2.4M 62.39
Buy Not Issued. Gapped down testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a doji on low volume. Still in the pattern.
NTRI 10/12 DB hdl 64.96 -0.04 66.72 79.95 934K 2.9M 63.38
Buy Not Hit. Pullback tapping 63.90 at the intraday low and rallied back on low volume. Still forming the handle.
NVDA 10/03 Test 50 32.42 -1.29 28.26 32.50 8.8M 17M 31.65
Current. Gapped down and moved down holding the 10 day MVA on low volume. Should be ready to bounce from here.
NVEC 10/14 Test 50 31.62 -1.37 33.75 40.00 635K 580K 31.45
Current. Ease back on much lower, but average volume. Still in good shape. Looking for stock to rebound off support at 31.14
NVLS 10/09 Cup hdl 28.57 -0.59 28.88 32.95 5.9M 4M 28.08
Current. Reported earnings after the close and trading down
near the 50 day EMA at 27.50. Will likely gap to that
level, & if holds we will let it try and show us a
rebound from the gap.
PKE 10/07 Cup hdl 32.50 -0.59 33.22 39.88 210K 281K 32.11
Current. Pullback tapping 31.88 at the intraday low and rallied back holding the 10 day MVA. Testing the breakout. Should be ready to bounce from here.
PLCE 10/11 Cup hdl 68.54 -0.11 66.56 76.75 794K 922K 66.28
Current. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a doji on lower, but above average volume. Still in uptrend.
PLCE 09/14 Test 20 68.54 -0.11 59.85 68.00 794K 800K 66.28
Current.
PRFT 09/19 Test BO 17.14 +0.19 15.08 18.12 357K 345K 16.78
Current.
RFMD 09/18 Test 20 7.95 -0.21 7.47 9.15 6.9M 8.5M 7.78
Current.
RSTI 09/25 DB hdl 62.60 -0.35 60.00 70.95 106K 163K 61.42
Current. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a tight doji on low volume. Still in good shape.
RTEC 09/19 Cup hdl 19.66 -0.37 19.12 23.15 184K 450K 18.98
Current.
SEIC 08/14 Asc Bse 58.77 -0.98 50.72 58.50 982K 750K 57.98
Current. Gapped down taping 58.15 at the intraday low and rallied back holding the 10 day MVA on very strong volume surge. Stock may be ready to rebound for next move up.
SIGM 10/09 Cup hdl 18.30 +0.31 16.09 19.39 944K 928K 17.39
Current. Continue with the uptrend for a nice gain on average volume.
SIMO 09/25 DB hdl 17.81 -0.09 17.28 20.68 294K 400K 16.98
Current. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on low volume. May begin to consolidate holding the gain.
SMSC 10/03 Cup hdl 31.45 -0.42 29.21 34.75 279K 504K 31.22
Current. Ease back on low volume. Still in uptrend.
SMSC 09/16 Cup hdl 31.45 -0.42 30.05 34.75 279K 504K 31.22
Current.
SMSI 10/04 Rv H&S 16.75 -0.37 15.23 17.98 734K 1.5M 15.95
Current. Pullback on average volume. Meeting some new resistance at 17.
TRAD 10/07 Cup hdl 15.82 -0.12 16.40 19.72 616K 450K 15.32
Current.
TSRA 10/14 Rv H&S 36.89 -0.10 37.05 43.45 676K 710K 35.08
Current.
TXN 09/26 DB hdl 32.36 -0.70 33.45 38.50 16M 15M 32.57
Current. Gapped down testing the simple 50 day MVA intraday and rallied back holding the 10 day MVA on much stronger volume. Should hold here and rebound
UARM 09/11 Dbl btm 46.63 -2.00 37.12 43.00 766K 1M 45.27
Current.
UTSI 10/05 Cup hdl 10.00 -0.07 9.56 11.68 2.9M 2.5M 9.49
Current. Pullback on much lower, but strong volume. Still in uptrend.
ZUMZ 10/14 Rv H&S 31.53 -0.71 33.32 39.95 298K 923K 31.78
Buy Not Hit.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
LCAV 10/11 Put 33.40 -0.36 34.35 31.85 651K 830K 34.72
Buy Not Issued. Showing a tight doji on rising volume. Looking for a relief bounce or will drop.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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