|
|
top stock pick, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: DRIV; SIGM
Strong plays:
1) CXW: Has tested and filled the gap
2) ICE: Making the second test of its breakout.
3) GYMB: Nice test of the 10 day EMA
4) LRCX: Testing the 10 day EMA
5) SMSI: Refusing to give up its gains as it tests the breakout.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 10/18/2006
CXW (Corrections Corp of America--$45.41; -0.20; optionable): Private detention facilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cxw.html
EARNINGS: 11-6-06
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. CXW has made us money before, and it was the subject of a lot of hype the past month. Now, however, it has set up for the next move higher after gapping up two weeks back, coming back to fill the gap while holding the 18 day EMA (44.99). Lower volume on the test shows few sellers. Just waiting for the stock to resume the move back up on a strong shot of volume.
Volume: 294.5K Avg Volume: 563.127K
BUY POINT: $46.48 Volume=600K Target=$54.85 Stop=$44.78
POSITION: CGY CX - Mar. $43.375c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cxw.html
Play Date: 10/18/2006
DJO (DJ Orthopedics--$39.55; -0.30; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/djo.html
EARNINGS: 11-2-06
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Testing the 50 day EMA (39.55) the past week, making a higher low at this support that has acted as the lows during this 6 month base. Higher and higher lows below a constant top at 43. Strong money flow is leading higher. Very nice low volume test the past week looks like the quiet before the storm. Looking for volume to shoot higher as DJO starts to move. Looking to move in as it jumps from here on volume and again on a breakout over 43.
Volume: 119.6K Avg Volume: 186.973K
BUY POINT: $40.65 Volume=280K Target=$48.78 Stop=$38.95
POSITION: DJO CH - Mar. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/djo.html
Play Date: 10/18/2006
ICE (Intercontimental Exchange--$81.88; +0.21; optionable): Energy futures, options exchange
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ice.html
EARNINGS: 11-2-06
STATUS: Test breakout. ICE fell hard Monday on strong volume, but then it rebounded Tuesday to hold the 18 day EMA (79.59) on even stronger trade. Wednesday was quiet, with ICE tapping the 18 day on the low and rebounding to close basically flat. It broke out in mid-September, tested, then rallied to 87. It is making its second test here, and we are looking to move back in as it rebounds from here.
Volume: 3.212M Avg Volume: 1.6M
BUY POINT: $83.22 Volume=2.4M Target=$94.95 Stop=$79.25
POSITION: ICE LP - Dec. $80c (58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ice.html
New buy points on current positions:
Play Date: 10/18/2006
CRM (Salesforce.com--$40.40; +0.15; optionable): Customer relationship management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crm.html
EARNINGS: Mid-November.
STATUS: Test breakout. CRM is testing the 10 day EMA (39.87) on low volume, taking a breather after the strong run to start October. This follows the breakout from a 8 month cup with handle base in late September. Ready to move in as it rebounds from the 10 day EMA on strong volume.
Volume: 1.163M Avg Volume: 2.141M
BUY POINT: $41.35 Volume=2.2M Target=$49.45 Stop=$39.65
POSITION: CRM BH - Feb. $40c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/crm.html
Play Date: 10/18/2006
GYMB (Gymboree--$45.60; +0.04; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gymb.html
EARNINGS: 11-15-06
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Making the second test of its breakout, the big jump in mid-September. Strong volume move to 47.50 last week, and now a nice test of the 10 day EMA (44.92) this week. Looking for GYMB to hold at this level and then make the next move higher on some solid trade.
Volume: 488.687K Avg Volume: 1.067M
BUY POINT: $46.05 Volume=1.6M Target=$52.95 Stop=$44.77
POSITION: GQU BI - Feb. $45c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gymb.html
Play Date: 10/18/2006
LRCX (Lam Research--$49.03; -1.91; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lrcx.html
STATUS: Test breakout. LRCX sold Wednesday with the other chip equipment stocks, but its volume was lower, and it recovered to close at the 10 day EMA. It broke sharply higher last week on a delayed reaction to its strong earnings, and now it is giving us the test. With the nice low volume test it is setting back up for the next run.
Volume: 4.441M Avg Volume: 3.779M
BUY POINT: $49.75 Volume=5.7M Target=$57.45 Stop=$48.12
POSITION: LMQ CJ - Mar. $50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lrcx.html
Play Date: 10/18/2006
SMSI (Smith Micro Software--$16.66; -0.09; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smsi.html
EARNINGS: 11-1-06
STATUS: Flying plateau. SMSI is working laterally for the past week, consolidating the sharp break higher earlier this month from a 3 month reverse head and shoulders base. The move took SMSI to a 6 year high. We really like how SMSI refuses to give up its gains as it consolidates, similar to DJ30 and SP500 early in the month. Want to see volume spark up again as it starts the next move higher.
Volume: 602.973K Avg Volume: 906.124K
BUY POINT: $17.35 Volume=1.1M Target=$20.95 Stop=$15.95
POSITION: QPM AW - Jan. $17.50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/smsi.html
Play Date: 10/18/2006
UARM (Under Armour--$46.60; -0.03; optionable): Sports apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uarm.html
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. UARM is coming back to test the last surge, a nice $8 run this month off of its last run when it broke out from a 3 month double bottom with handle base. We are looking for a test back to the 10 day EMA (45.51) on continued low volume, and then a rebound from there on stronger volume.
Volume: 711.348K Avg Volume: 885.862K
BUY POINT: $45.85 Volume=1M Target=$54.95 Stop=$44.85
POSITION: UMG AI - Jan. $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/uarm.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/13/2006
FFIV (F5 Networks--$56.62; -0.91; optionable): Internet traffic management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
EARNINGS: 10-25-06
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Has tested down to the 200 day SMA (56.12) on continued low volume. It has made the test and now we just wait for it to show us the break higher on volume. To recap: Big winner in the second half of 2005 and Q1 2006, FFIV ran out of gas and needed a new base. It fell into the current 6.5 month base. Last week it broke through the 200 day SMA as it cleared the 'hump' in the middle of the pattern. It rallied to 60 through Thursday and Friday it fell on some rising, slightly above average volume. A bit of distribution, but looking for a test this week down to the 10 day EMA or perhaps the 200 day. Then we pick it up as it rebounds. Looks like this 2005 leader is back.
Volume: 680.199K Avg Volume: 992.509K
BUY POINT: Has tested lower: $57.85 Volume=1.5M Target=$71.95 Stop=$56.95
POSITION: FLK AL - Jan. $60c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ffiv.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
top stock pick
stock recommendation
|
