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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: AAPL; GYMB; HOC; MDRX; NVEC; TWGP
Wednesday night play results:
CXW: Nice doji at the 18 day EMA
DJO: Still at the 50 day EMA
ICE: Nice doji over the 18 day EMA
CRM: Very nice low volume test
GYMB: Started higher on rising, average volume
LRCX: Started back up Thursday though could have used some more volume.
SMSI: Sold off below the 18 day EMA but rebounded nicely
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/19/2006
NYX (NYSE Group--$72.97; -0.03; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nyx.html
EARNINGS: 10-26-06 before the open
STATUS: Cup w/handle. NYX has come back to the 18 day EMA (73.10) the past two weeks, forming the handle to its 8 month base formed using the roughly the 200 day SMA (65.17) as support. This base is setting NYX up for a breakout to a new all-time high. Money flow is strong leading the way higher, complementing solid accumulation. Looking for volume to jump as it rebounds.
Volume: 1.275M Avg Volume: 1.614M
BUY POINT: $75.55 Volume=2.4M Target=$86.95 Stop=$72.95
POSITION: NYX AO - Jan. $65c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nyx.html
Play Date: 10/19/2006
TIE (Titanium Metals--$29.56; +0.77; optionable): Industrial metals and minerals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tie.html
EARNINGS: 10-23-06
STATUS: Cup. TIE was one of the commodities that surged higher and peaked in May and then corrected. It sold back to the 200 day SMA (26.90), spending 11 weeks at that level, forming the bottom of its 5 month base. Solid break higher to start this month looks to have started the right side of the base. It stalled at 30 and has moved laterally this week just below that level, holding the gains to that point; have heard that before in this market. Setting up nicely for the break through that level. Earnings are Monday before the open, so a Friday play is aggressive, but if we see it move higher on some solid trade we will start some positions.
Volume: 2.975M Avg Volume: 3.931M
BUY POINT: $30.22 Volume=5.5M Target=$37.45 Stop=$28.21
POSITION: TIE CF - Mar. $30c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tie.html
Play Date: 10/19/2006
UARM (Under Armour--$46.41; -0.19; optionable): Sports apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uarm.html
EARNINGS: 10-31-06
STATUS: Test breakout. No stinker here. UARM broke out from its 12 week double bottom with handle to start October and rallied to 49 on that first run. It is now taking a breather, coming back to test toward the 10 day EMA (45.67), holding at 46, using that as support. May come all the way back to the 10 day before starting higher, and if it does we want to pick it up off of that test. Nice market leader that was a new issue in November 2005.
Volume: 335.955K Avg Volume: 889.483K
BUY POINT: $45.85 Volume=1M Target=$54.95 Stop=$44.85
POSITION: UMG AI - Jan. $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/uarm.html
Play Date: 10/19/2006
VLTR (Volterra Semiconductor--$17.60; -0.22; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vltr.html
EARNINGS: 10-23-06
STATUS: Cup w/handle. This chip sector was the first to get hurt in earnings season when MRVL missed. Since then it has had time to lick its wounds and recover, and BRCM's earnings after the close won't hurt one bit. VLTR is in a nice pullback the past week, holding at the 10 day EMA (17.60) as it forms the handle to its 7 month base. Nice volume on the break higher, and after this pullback looking for more strong trade to send it higher. Very nice pattern to go along with good fundamentals growth rates. Earnings are Monday so it is a more aggressive play, but if we see some good action on the BRCM news we will be ready to start some positions.
Volume: 258.532K Avg Volume: 270.714K
BUY POINT: $18.25 Volume=406K Target=$21.95 Stop=$17.44
POSITION: QYU CW - Mar. $17.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vltr.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 10/19/2006
PRFT (Perficient--$16.92; +0.14; no options): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prft.html
EARNINGS: 11-2-06
STATUS: Test breakout. PRFT broke out from a 13 week cup with handle to start September and rallied to 16 where it consolidated and then broke higher again two weeks back. It has come back this week to test, moving laterally along the 10 day EMA (16.79). Nice test and looking for volume to jack back up as it rebounds from here.
Volume: 236.243K Avg Volume: 350.727K
BUY POINT: $17.31 Volume=500K Target=$20.74 Stop=$16.35
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/prft.html
Continuing play ready to move:
Play Date: 10/18/2006
CXW (Corrections Corp of America--$45.34; -0.07; optionable): Private detention facilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cxw.html
EARNINGS: 11-6-06
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Still at the 18 day EMA (45.03) with a nice tight doji Thursday. Volume jumped as it held steady, and that often indicates a break higher coming. Nice. To recap: CXW has made us money before, and it was the subject of a lot of hype the past month. Now, however, it has set up for the next move higher after gapping up two weeks back, coming back to fill the gap while holding the 18 day EMA. Lower volume on the test shows few sellers. Just waiting for the stock to resume the move back up on a strong shot of volume.
Volume: 670.9K Avg Volume: 563.127K
BUY POINT: $46.48 Volume=600K Target=$54.85 Stop=$44.78
POSITION: CGY CX - Mar. $43.375c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cxw.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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