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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good Movers: COH; LRCX; MVSN; NVEC; RVSN
Strong plays:
1) AEOS: Looks ready for another breakout.
2) BAMM: Showing good volume as it resumes the break higher.
3) BEAS: Nice volume, nice price break higher
4) CRM: Volume is edging higher as CRM completes its test.
5) GME: Just needs some volume.
6) ICE: Volume jumped back above average. Looks ready.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 10/23/2006
AEOS (American Eagle Outfitters--$46.49; +1.49; optionable): Teen apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aeos.html
EARNINGS: 11-14-06
STATUS: Flying plateau. Trying to make the breakout move from its 4 week lateral move following that nice August through September run. Made us some nice money on that move, and this pattern is setting it up to makes some more. Market leader that is ready to make the next run.
Volume: 2.408M Avg Volume: 3.052M
BUY POINT: $46.88 Volume=4M Target=$54.45 Stop=$44.38
POSITION: AQU BI - Feb. $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aeos.html
Play Date: 10/23/2006
BAMM (Books-A-Million, Inc.--$20.05; +0.79; no options): Specialty retail, books
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bamm.html
EARNINGS: 11-16-06
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice shot of above average volume Monday as BAMM resumes its breakout move. BAMM set up a nice 13 week base over the 50 day EMA (17.75) and broke out to start October. A good run to just over 20 and then the first test, coming back to the 18 day EMA (19.08) last week. A good doji Friday and a break higher Monday on that solid trade. Positive accumulation is taking BAMM to a six year high. Nice resumption of the breakout move and we are ready to buy as it continues.
Volume: 190.679K Avg Volume: 107.976K
BUY POINT: $20.24 Volume=150K Target=$24.45 Stop=$18.94
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bamm.html
Play Date: 10/23/2006
BEAS (Bea Systems--$16.25; +0.85; optionable): Enterprise & service infrastructure software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/beas.html
EARNINGS: 11-15-06
STATUS: Flying plateau breakout. BEAS jumped sharply Monday on a sharp jump in volume, the first above average session in three weeks as BEAS worked laterally over the 18 day EMA (15.39), consolidating the solid breakout and run higher in September. BEAS formed a 17 week base ahead of the breakout and rallied to 16. Nice quiet consolidation and then that resumed breakout on Monday. Ready to step in as BEAS continues this very solid move to a 5 year high.
Volume: 12.041M Avg Volume: 6.851M
BUY POINT: $16.38 Volume=6.8M Target=$19.75 Stop=$15.23
POSITION: BUC CC - Mar. $15c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/beas.html
Play Date: 10/23/2006
WST (West Pharmaceutical--$41.85; -0.01; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wst.html
EARNINGS: 11-2-06 but this has not been confirmed
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Strong volume Monday as WST jumped up to 43.37 but could not hold the breakout. Strongest trade in three weeks and it is certainly set to make the breakout from its short but sweet 7 week base that is setting WST up for a break to another all-time high. Strong stock; just need to see that volume continue as it makes the breakout move.
Volume: 400.5K Avg Volume: 272.264K
BUY POINT: $42.95 Volume=400K Target=$49.75 Stop=$40.94
POSITION: WST CH - Mar. $40c (65 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wst.html
New buy points on current positions:
Play Date: 10/23/2006
ICON (Iconix Brand Group--$18.26; -0.01; optionable): Apparel, footwear
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/icon.html
EARNINGS: 10-26-06
STATUS: Breakout test. After a strong break higher earlier this month ICON spent the past week working laterally in a very tight range above the 10 day EMA (17.99). Volume has dropped off below average as it makes this move. The lateral move giving back no gains and the low volume shows us no sellers as it sets up for the next break higher to continue the breakout run. Money flow is leading higher and we are looking for ICON to follow it once again.
Volume: 285.444K Avg Volume: 423.05K
BUY POINT: $18.55 Volume=635K Target=$22.45 Stop=$17.49
POSITION: QIA BW - Feb. $17.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/icon.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/16/2006
AQNT (Aquantive--$26.86; +0.28; optionable): Digital marketing services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aqnt.html
EARNINGS: 11-2-06
STATUS: Cup. Still low volume as AQNT bumps its head into resistance at 27, still looking for the breakout. This is actually forming the handle to the base. Looks just about ready to show us the move. To recap: Spent last week working laterally as the 10 day EMA (26.14) rose to meet it after that strong blast higher a week back. Very nice test of the move as the market struggled, forming a handle to the base. Now it looks ready to move higher as volume moved up to average Friday as AQNT continued trading in its tight range. AQNT is working through a 10 month cup base. It broke up through the 200 day SMA (24.64) to start the month, tested the 200 day last week, and then surged higher Monday, rallying up the right side of the pattern. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price and now price is starting to follow. Ready to move in as it continues toward a 6 year high.
Volume: 749.025K Avg Volume: 1.236M
BUY POINT: $27.05 Volume=1.4M Target=$32.48 Stop=$25.24
POSITION: QBT CE - Mar. $25c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aqnt.html
Play Date: 10/18/2006
CRM (Salesforce.com--$40.44; +0.57; optionable): Employment management software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crm.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Has spent the past two weeks working on a new handle for a 9 month base, forming this handle right below the all-time high hit in January at the start of the base. Volume bumped higher Monday as CRM tested lower and rebounded. Looking for a breakout here.
Volume: 1.525M Avg Volume: 2.088M
BUY POINT: $41.35 Volume=2.2M Target=$49.45 Stop=$39.65
POSITION: CRM BH - Feb. $40c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/crm.html
Play Date: 10/18/2006
CXW (Corrections Corp of America--$45.99; -0.21; optionable): Private detention facilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cxw.html
EARNINGS: 11-6-06
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Gapped higher Monday but could not hold the move. Just a modest loss, however, as volume backed off. Looks ready for the move after filling the gap Friday. To recap: CXW has made us money before, and it was the subject of a lot of hype the past month. Now, however, it has set up for the next move higher after gapping up two weeks back, coming back to fill the gap while holding the 18 day EMA. Lower volume on the test shows few sellers. Just waiting for the stock to resume the move back up on a strong shot of volume.
Volume: 619.1K Avg Volume: 556.723K
BUY POINT: $46.48 Volume=600K Target=$54.85 Stop=$44.78POSITION: CGY CX - Mar. $43.375c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cxw.html
Play Date: 10/21/2006
GME (Gamestop--$52.09; +0.84; optionable): Electronics stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gme.html
EARNINGS: Mid-November
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice price rise but volume did not follow, backing off late just below the buy point. Still set up very nicely, and on some more volume it is a buy. To recap: GME has stopped playing games and looks ready to move. Strong break higher the second week of October as GME cleared a 6.5 month base on some strong volume. It looks to have overcome the weakness on the Play Station 3 web sales in a big way. Excellent break higher with a very nice, low volume test the past week to the 10 day EMA (50.71), easily holding above that level as it taps it on the lows and bounces back. Strong money flow is moving higher ahead of price, and we expect GME to continue on up, following the money into the holiday season.
Volume: 935.8K Avg Volume: 1.344M
BUY POINT: $52.21 Volume=1.7M Target=$60.45 Stop=$50.22
POSITION: GME AJ - Jan. $50c (56 delta) or GME DK - Apr. $55c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gme.html
Play Date: 10/19/2006
ICE (Intercontimental Exchange--$82.41; +0.63; optionable): Energy futures, options exchange
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ice.html
EARNINGS: 11-2-06
STATUS: Test breakout. Volume moved back above average Monday as ICE flirted with the break higher. Looks ready to make the move. To recap: ICE fell hard last week on strong volume, but then rebounded the next day to hold the 18 day EMA on even stronger trade, and then finished the week holding that support and working laterally. It broke out in mid-September, tested, then rallied to 87. It is making its second test here, and we are looking to move back in as it rebounds from here.
Volume: 2.264M Avg Volume: 1.554M
BUY POINT: $83.22 Volume=2.4M Target=$94.95 Stop=$79.25
POSITION: ICE LP - Dec. $80c (58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ice.html
Play Date: 10/21/2006
LVLT (Level 3 Communications--$5.78; -0.05; optionable): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lvlt.html
EARNINGS: 10-24-06
STATUS: Breakout test. Still working laterally as the 10 day EMA (5.59) rising to meet LVLT after that strong move a week back. Just waiting for it to show the next move. To recap: Strong breakout last Tuesday as LVLT announced it is buying BWNG. Investors loved it. Volume surged as LVLT jumped out of a 5.5 month cup with handle base. It faded back to test the rest of the week on lower volume, acting very healthy and setting up its next run. We like to move in after the first test as it shows the initial move was not all fluff, that the big buyers want to get back in even at this higher price and are using a dip to do so. That shows us the stock and the move has staying power. Thus, we are looking for LVLT to hold above the 10 day EMA this week and then continue the move higher.
Volume: 39.658M Avg Volume: 32.026M
BUY POINT: $5.98 Volume=44M Target=$7.50 Stop=$5.52
POSITION: QHN CA - Mar. $5c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lvlt.html
Play Date: 10/19/2006
NYX (NYSE Group--$75.00; +1.75; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nyx.html
EARNINGS: 10-26-06 before the open
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Bounced up off the 18 day EMA (73.32) Monday but volume faded back below average. Still nicely set to make the break higher from here; just has to show the volume. To recap: NYX has come back to the 18 day EMA the past two weeks, forming the handle to its 8 month base formed using the roughly the 200 day SMA (65.28) as support. This base is setting NYX up for a breakout to a new all-time high. Money flow is strong leading the way higher, complementing solid accumulation. Looking for volume to jump as it rebounds.
Volume: 1.377M Avg Volume: 1.605M
BUY POINT: $75.55 Volume=2.4M Target=$86.95 Stop=$72.95
POSITION: NYX AO - Jan. $65c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nyx.html
Play Date: 10/17/2006
PENN (Penn National Gaming--$39.15; +0.73; optionable): Resorts and casinos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/penn.html
EARNINGS: 10-26-06
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Solid move off the 18 day EMA (37.93) Monday as PENN moves toward the breakout from its handle. No volume yet, but we look for that to come as it makes its breakout move. To recap: PENN jumped higher the second week of October on strong, above average volume on an upgrade. That almost broke it out of its 25 week base, but it faded back modestly, working laterally above the 18 day EMA, setting up the next break higher. This action is shaking out the last sellers and setting PENN up for the breakout to try for a new all-time high and on toward perhaps another split in the spring.
Volume: 559.295K Avg Volume: 887.956K
BUY POINT: $39.44 Volume=900K Target=$46.95 Stop=$37.35
POSITION: UQN DH - Apr. $40c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/penn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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