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Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information. A "prior high" refers to the high at the start of a base.
For conserving space on listings of stop losses, the symbol (7%) indicates that the stop is 7% below the buy point.
Stocks/Indexes from the Saturday report:
KEA: Pulling back in the handle; a tight doji Monday just above support. Volume was just higher and still well below average.
OLGC: Bounced as expected (from the 18 day MVA) with volume surging, but pulled back. Still above some previous resistance at 5, however, and can head back up from here.
RBK: Made the move we wanted (aggressive buy point at 26.50) and closed right there. Still holding support (200 day MVA) so continue to look for a move over recent highs (26.90; 26.95).
RI: Closed at our aggressive buy point (20.90) on Monday, and up slightly today with volume very low but rising (ascending wedge type pattern).
JPM: Put play; moving up to its 10 day MVA but pulling back. Volume is low but rising; we will see if the stock turns back down from the resistance, or takes it out.
Continuing plays:
AVID: Still tightening up nicely in its test of the breakout (over the 200 day MVA).
CBR: Testing the strong breakout and currently holding at the 10 range with volume falling nicely.
CFLO: Still looks good in the pennant (12-20).
EAT: Up again on rising volume.
EMLX: Ready for a breakout. Buy point 40.94 in the cup with handle.
INRG: Ready to break out! Buy point 14.98 (12-17)
SIB: In a cup with handle now; buy point 17.33.
QQQ: Trying to head higher; volume was up from very low levels (and is still quite low and well below average). The index moved over resistance at the 18 day and 200 day MVAs, but pulled back below that to close.
Best Plays:
1) SGI: Tight pattern and volume spikes.
2) VNWK: Tight ascending wedge.
3) IBI: Ready to break resistance.
4) KSS: Another tight pattern.
5) EBAY: Moving up in the handle.
New: Some small stocks that look ready to make a move:
SGI (Silicon Graphics--$2.20; 0.00; no options): Hardware: Computer Systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sgi.html
STATUS: SGI is deep in a lengthy base, but made a super run up in October on strong volume, which broke the stock back over its 200 day MVA up to the November high at 2.47. From there is has pulled back on steadily decreasing volume, holding pretty tightly at the 18 day MVA (2.17). Showing a tight doji Wednesday, volume was up sharply to 1.5 million (avg. 2 million); and we like 2 other volume spikes thrown this month as well. Looking for a move up after this extended lateral movement. The stock is showing excellent money flow and high relative strength. Target: Initial, 3
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 2.30 on average or higher volume. Stop: 2.10 (7%).
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/sgi.html
VNWK (Visual Networks--$4.01; +0.01; optionable): Hardware: Networking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vnwk.html
STATUS: A nice, tight ascending wedge pattern that is squeezed between the upper level 200 day MVA (4.14) and the 10 day MVA at 3.86. The stock got a shot of stronger volume Wednesday (240,000; avg. 303,000), so we are looking for a breakout over the major resistance. The pattern has formed at the top of a run from the stock's 50 day MVA from the first of the month. VNWK is another stock that is in a long base, but we like the pattern. Showing good money flow. Target: 5.21
BUY POINT: 4.34 on volume of 409,000 or higher. Stop: 4.04 (7%)
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/vnwk.html
IBI (Intimate Brands--$14.83; +0.46; optionable): Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ibi.html
STATUS: In a long base and in a downtrend, this year held down by its down trendline that connects the February, July and August highs. Regardless of that, IBI made a nice run up in October and November, off the lows near 9, and mid-November began to form a pennant at the top of that run. It had to test back to the 50 day MVA but on rising volume moved back over the short term moving averages. Wednesday IBI closed right at the down trendline, but with volume surging sharply as it did (1.17 million; avg. 1.2 million), we are looking for a breakout over that resistance. The overall pattern since the mid-July high (16.94) can be called a cup with handle. Strong money flow. Target: 18
BUY POINT: 15 on volume of 1.8 million or higher. Stop: 13.95 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or April $12.50 calls to buy (IBI DV).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ibi.html
Previously covered:
KSS (Kohl's--$68.82; -0.40; optionable): Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kss.html
STATUS: Crawling along support of the 18 day MVA (68.41) in what can be termed a handle to a double bottom base that down not have a clear middle hump; the stock's 2 highs in that range are from May (67.95) and June (66.58). Highs at the start of the 11-month base are near 72, and the handle high from December is at 71.85. KSS has shown decreasing volume in the handle (overall), which spiked up to 1.57 million today (avg. 1.8 million) with the stock showing a doji at he current support. Looking for a move up and breakout over the high. KSS shows strong money flow and high relative strength. Target: 86
BUY POINT: 71.98 on volume of 2.7 million or higher. Stop: 66.94 (7%)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/kss.html
PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: New Leaders (new list): ACS, NVDA, DGX, FRX, LLL, CACI, AJG, KRON, MIK, BMET, APPB, LOW, IDPH, TARO, MYL, IGT, VRSN
IGT: Nice move up on rising volume. New all-time closing high.
LLL: Above the 50 day MVA for more than a week, and on low volume. Trying to break over 90.
DGX: Marching higher; the stock has been on a steady run since the first of the month.
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: Here is the new portfolio list: BBBY, EPIQ, KKD, MMS, NDN, SRCL, CPRT, BJ, EBAY, THQI, KG.
EBAY (Ebay--$66.04; +2.23; optionable): Internet Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ebay.html
STATUS: Internet stocks had a good day. EBAY was back over its 18 day MVA on rising volume (4.3 million; avg. 8.4 million), and we are looking at getting in on a continued move up. The stock has been pulling back in the a handle to its 6-month cup (part of a larger base), and hit the 50 day MVA Monday, resulting in this bounce, with the help of the good news in the sector. Good money flow and relative strength heading higher. Target: 86
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 65 on continued rising volume. Stop: 60.45 (7%)
Breakout: 71.30 on volume of 12.6 million or higher. Stop: 66.31 (7%)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ebay.html
BBBY: Rising volume and a move off support. Heading for the December high at 35.70.
NDN: Closed just below the buy point in the ascending wedge (which is 40.03). Volume was higher, so may see the breakout.
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: New portfolio as selected by the subscribers. Some of these stocks are still struggling to move higher in their bases, and will likely continue to trade in close ranges just like the market. We'll be ready to catch them when they are ready to move. The new list: BRCM, CHKP, AMAT, JNJ, MSFT, AOL, HGSI, BUD, PXLW.
Old members: BRCM, CHKP, CSCO, EMLX, IDTI, INTC, JDSU, MVSN, NT, PWER, SUNW, VTSS
CHKP: Holding the 18 day MVA in a 3-day lateral movement.
AMAT: Holding the 50 day MVA on low volume.
BRCM: Couldn't hold the move over the 50 day MVA today.
BUD: Now testing the breakout.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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