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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good Movers: BRCM; COH; EZPW; ISE; LRCX; NVEC; RVSN; SIGM; UTSI
Strong plays:
1) IIG: Breaking higher on strong volume.
2) JCG: Excellent test of the 18 day EMA
3) WEBX: A leader setting up nicely.
4) BAMM: Volume is up as it makes a higher low
5) BEAS: Still looks sweet
6) WST: Start the move and just needs more trade.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 10/25/2006
IIG (Imergent--$15.86; +0.81; optionable): eCommerce solutions to small businesses
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iig.html
EARNINGS: 11-7-06
STATUS: Ascending base. Strong above average volume Wednesday as IIG started the breakout from its 6 month base formed making higher and higher lows above the 50 day EMA (14.15). Solid action and a nice quiet period in October before the strong Wednesday break higher. Ready to move in as this solid market leader heads higher once more.
Volume: 300.9K Avg Volume: 157.782K
BUY POINT: $16.22 Volume=200K Target=$19.85 Stop=$14.79
POSITION: IIG DC - Apr. $15c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/iig.html
Play Date: 10/25/2006
IM (Ingram Micro--$19.78; -0.07; optionable): Wholesale IT products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/im.html
EARNINGS: Released 10-24-06
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. IM reported some strong earnings Tuesday after hours and IM broke higher Wednesday on strong volume. It high 21 on the high but backed off to give back half the move by the close. Nice break, however, from its 8 month base that is ready to move IM to a 6 year high. Solid base, solid earnings, and looking to move in as IM continues its break higher.
Volume: 1.435M Avg Volume: 1.132M
BUY POINT: $20.75 Volume=1.5M Target=$24.95 Stop=$19.65
POSITION: IM CD - Mar. $20c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/im.html
Play Date: 10/25/2006
JCG (J. Crew Group--$31.34; -0.10; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jcg.html
EARNINGS: Late November
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. A new issued in late June, JCG broke out from a 2.5 month base in September and has rallied up the 18 day EMA (31.32) into October. The past week it has come back from a run to 33 to test the 18 day EMA Tuesday and Wednesday, showing a nice doji with tail Wednesday, rebounding to close at the 18 day EMA. Strong money flow is moving higher ahead of price, and we expect JCG to rebound from this near support and follow that money flow higher.
Volume: 365.9K Avg Volume: 392.712K
BUY POINT: $31.78 Volume=400K Target=$37.95 Stop=$30.95
POSITION: JCG CF - Mar. $30c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jcg.html
Play Date: 10/25/2006
WEBX (Webex Communications--$38.85; +0.93; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/webx.html
EARNINGS: 10-26-06 after the close
STATUS: Double bottom. WEBX made us some solid coin on its series of stair-step runs in Q3, and after peaking at 40 on the last run, it has stepped back to the 50 day EMA (37.34). It has tapped twice at that level and Wednesday started back up with a solid price move. Volume was not there yet, but if it shows up tomorrow we are inclined to take some positions ahead of the earnings out after the close. Aggressive but we like what the pattern is showing.
Volume: 447.139K Avg Volume: 652.491K
BUY POINT: $39.31 Volume=979K Target=$45.65 Stop=$37.21
POSITION: UWB CH - Mar. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/webx.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/24/2006
ATHR (Atheros Communications--$21.36; +0.46; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/athr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-23-06 after the close
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. Bumping at the buy point Wednesday, but volume, after a couple of strong sessions, was not with it. Still looks ready to make the move and with the chips improving, ATHR is in a great position to make a solid run. To recap: ATHR is in a 7 month cup with handle base of sorts, fading back to the 200 day SMA (20.10) the past week, holding that level Monday, and bouncing Tuesday after its earnings results. It gave back a chunk of the move, but has set up this nice pattern, and importantly, it didn't sell off, instead holding its nice pattern. Looking for ATHR to continue higher from here and give us our buy point.
Volume: 2.24M Avg Volume: 2.704M
BUY POINT: $21.45 Volume=4M Target=$27.50 Stop=$20.05
POSITION: QRA CD - Mar. $20c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/athr.html
Play Date: 10/23/2006
BAMM (Books-A-Million, Inc.--$20.09; +0.13; no options): Specialty retail, books
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bamm.html
EARNINGS: 11-16-06
STATUS: Test breakout. After breaking higher Monday, a nice test that tapped the 10 day EMA (19.65) on the low and rebounded on strong volume. It is ready to move. To recap: Nice shot of above average volume Monday as BAMM resumes its breakout move. BAMM set up a nice 13 week base over the 50 day EMA (17.75) and broke out to start October. A good run to just over 20 and then the first test, coming back to the 18 day EMA (19.27) last week. A good doji Friday and a break higher Monday on that solid trade. Positive accumulation is taking BAMM to a six year high. Nice resumption of the breakout move and we are ready to buy as it continues.
Volume: 206.564K Avg Volume: 104.744K
BUY POINT: $20.24 Volume=150K Target=$24.45 Stop=$18.94
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bamm.html
Play Date: 10/23/2006
BEAS (Bea Systems--$16.26; +0.27; optionable): Enterprise & service infrastructure software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/beas.html
EARNINGS: 11-15-06
STATUS: Flying plateau breakout. Moved higher again Wednesday, but no volume to really push it. Still set to make the next move higher after the September to October lateral consolidation. To recap: BEAS jumped sharply Monday on a sharp jump in volume, the first above average session in three weeks as BEAS worked laterally over the 18 day EMA (15.53), consolidating the solid breakout and run higher in September. BEAS formed a 17 week base ahead of the breakout and rallied to 16. Nice quiet consolidation and then that resumed breakout on Monday. Ready to step in as BEAS continues this very solid move to a 5 year high.
Volume: 5.765M Avg Volume: 6.931M
BUY POINT: $16.38 Volume=6.8M Target=$19.75 Stop=$15.23
POSITION: BUC CC - Mar. $15c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/beas.html
Play Date: 10/18/2006
CXW (Corrections Corp of America--$45.65; -0.36; optionable): Private detention facilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cxw.html
EARNINGS: 11-6-06
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Still working laterally over the 18 day EMA (45.35) on below average volume, setting up for the next move higher as it tests that early October upside gap. Just waiting to see the move. To recap: CXW has made us money before, and it was the subject of a lot of hype the past month. Now, however, it has set up for the next move higher after gapping up two weeks back, coming back to fill the gap while holding the 18 day EMA. Lower volume on the test shows few sellers. Just waiting for the stock to resume the move back up on a strong shot of volume.
Volume: 199.9K Avg Volume: 559.761K
BUY POINT: $46.48 Volume=600K Target=$54.85 Stop=$44.78POSITION: CGY CX - Mar. $43.375c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cxw.html
Play Date: 10/21/2006
HMSY (HMS Holdings--$13.70; -0.27; no options): Specialized health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hmsy.html
EARNINGS: Early November
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Low volume test Wednesday after the strong price and solid volume move Tuesday. Still set to make the break from this nice little base. To recap: A sweet little 8 week base has formed as HMSY sets up for a breakout to a 10 year high. Excellent action in the pattern, and money flow is running higher as the stock bases. Has been probing the breakout the past week with some solid intraday surges up near 14.30. Looking for the volume to kick in as HMSY makes the next such move.
Volume: 86.577K Avg Volume: 223.462K
BUY POINT: $14.41 Volume=331K Target=$17.38 Stop=$13.39
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hmsy.html
Play Date: 10/23/2006
WST (West Pharmaceutical--$42.87; +0.93; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wst.html
EARNINGS: 11-2-06 but this has not been confirmed
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume was up as it moved higher off the 10 day EMA (41.82). The price is breaking out; want the volume to go with it as well. To recap: Strong volume Monday as WST jumped up to 43.37 but could not hold the breakout. Strongest trade in three weeks and it is certainly set to make the breakout from its short but sweet 7 week base that is setting WST up for a break to another all-time high. Strong stock; just need to see that volume continue as it makes the breakout move.
Volume: 221K Avg Volume: 263.639K
BUY POINT: $42.95 Volume=400K Target=$49.75 Stop=$40.94
POSITION: WST CH - Mar. $40c (65 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wst.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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