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us stock market, trading system
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good Movers: AMX; ATHR; BRCM; DRIV; FFIV; GME; GYMB; ICE; IM; JCG; KNOT; NVDA; PLCE; SMSC; WEBX
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 10/26/2006
ADS (Alliance Data--$59.75; +0.27; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ads.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-18-06
STATUS: Breakout test. ADS made us a bit of money on its last move, and after a breakout last week from a nicely formed 3.5 month cup with handle it is set up to do it again. We like the first test of a breakout; when the stock moves back up on volume it shows the big money still wants it, 'proving up' the breakout. Preparing for that breakout to a new all-time high. Solid leader with strong fundamentals growth rates and a sweet pattern.
Volume: 612.7K Avg Volume: 864.367K
BUY POINT: $61.11 Volume=1.3M Target=$69.95 Stop=$58.38
POSITION: ADS CL - Mar. $60c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ads.html
Play Date: 10/26/2006
WFR (Memc Electronic--$38.83; +1.82; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
EARNINGS: Announced after the close Thursday
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. WFR gapped higher on solid above average volume Thursday ahead of its earnings, clearing the mid-October high that made something of a hump to a short 6 week double bottom on the 200 day SMA (35.24). This is part of a larger 6 month base. After hours WFR reported earnings and surged on the news, then faded late in the after hours toward the closing price. Looking for WFR to give us an entry early, but we want to see it open and then start to move higher. Another solid leader in fundamentals growth as well as a nice pattern.
Volume: 6.313M Avg Volume: 4.241M
BUY POINT: $39.65 Volume=5M Target=$47.45 Stop=$37.45
POSITION: WFR DH - Apr. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wfr.html
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ADBE 10/12 FlyPlat 39.36 +0.42 38.74 46.75 5M 8M 37.88
Current. Another tap at the 10 day EMA (38.53) and a rebound
for a modest gain on lower, avg volume. Trying to get
underway, just struggling a bit. Still in solid shape
to move higher for us.
AEOS 10/23 FlyPlat 47.23 +1.18 46.88 54.45 2M 4M 44.38
Buy Not Issued. Looked hard at it, but just no volume to really give
any confidence in taking positions.
AKAM 10/21 Test 50 49.83 +0.83 47.20 55.95 10M 7M 47.45
Current. Announced earnings after hours and profits were lower
but sales were sharply higher. Sold off initially,
but then revesrsed & was trading at its closign price
at the time of this writing.
AMX 10/04 Asc Bse 44.54 +0.78 40.21 47.95 3.5M 5.2M 42.97
Current.
ATHR 10/24 Test 20 22.17 +0.81 21.97 27.95 2.8M 4M 20.82
Entered today. Volume was up and so was ATHR, posting a nice gain
as it continues off the 200 day EMA.
BAMM 10/23 Test BO 19.98 -0.11 20.24 24.45 254K 150K 18.94
Buy Not Issued. Good volume again, coming in well above average, but
BAMM could not make the intraday move stick so we just
decided to be patient and let the movce come to us.
BEAS 10/23 FlyPlat 16.50 +0.24 16.38 19.75 4.6M 6.8M 15.23
Buy Not Issued. Really wanted to move in on this one but wanted to
see some more push in the volume. Instead, trade fell
further below average. If it can show us some volume
from here it is still a buy.
BITS 10/14 Test BO 10.47 +0.04 9.75 12.68 215K 200K 9.97
Current. Modest gain on rising almost average volume as BITS
continues its move up the 10 day EMA.
BLKB 10/03 Asc Bse 25.49 +0.37 24.59 29.00 248K 433K 24.58
Current. A very nice two week lateral move over the 10 day EMA
(25.04) is setting up the next break higher. Sweet
pattern from a solid market leader.
BMRN 10/11 DB hdl 16.11 +0.30 16.62 19.95 717K 1.2M 15.89
Current. Nice doji at the 50 day EMA (15.72) and then a higher
volume bounce Thursday. Making a higher low here and
ready to move up again.
BRCM 09/25 Test 50 29.37 +0.91 30.96 35.68 22M 17M 29.32
Current. A second nice move up after the last test, rallying
Thursday thru the 50 day EMA (28.76) on a very solid
shot of above avg volume. Looking strong; this needs
to be the move that takes it thru 32.
CHRS 10/09 Cup hdl 15.35 +0.55 15.21 18.25 753K 2.8M 14.22
Buy Not Issued. The apparel stores were moving up but volume simply
was not with them. That was the case with CHRS even
though it moved through resistance at 15. If it gets
some volume from here it is still a buy.
COH 09/25 Test BO 39.65 -0.30 35.05 40.48 3.1M 5M 38.45
Current. Took a low volume day off after those three solid upside
sessions that shot our one of our favorite apparel
makers to a new all-time high.
CRM 10/18 Test BO 40.73 -0.60 41.44 49.45 1.1M 2.2M 39.35
Current. After the stronger volume move higher Wed it gave some
back Thurs on lower, below avg volume. Still holding
up nicely, but want to see that break back up carry
it through 42.
CRM 09/12 Cup hdl 40.73 -0.60 36.61 42.95 1.1M 3M 39.48
Current.
CWTR 09/16 Cup hdl 30.27 +0.36 29.16 35.35 754K 1.6M 28.69
Current. Modest gain on very low volume Thurs, thus far unable
to punch on through 31. That is the next level it needs
to break. No complaints, just getting a bit bored.
CXW 10/18 Test 18 46.20 +0.55 46.48 54.85 325K 600K 44.78
Buy Not Issued. Modest gain on continuing below avg volume. Still set
to make the break from this lateral move over the 18
day EMA that is testing the strong gap higher to start
the month.
DRIV 09/09 Test BO 52.11 +2.18 50.34 57.50 2.6M 1.4M 52.31
Current. Gapped back up after the Wed gap lower. After hrs earnings
jumped it to 54.50. Great recovery from a great leader
that simply got hit with nervous selling.
EZPW 10/21 Test BO 46.50 +0.86 44.12 51.95 608K 750K 43.89
Current. Nice gain on a solid jump in volume that took trade
just above avg. Nice action following that strong money
flow higher.
FFIV 10/13 DB hdl 66.63 +8.51 58.00 69.95 4.6M 1.5M 63.95
Target Hit. Those strong earnings shot FFIV out of a cannon and
we took some of the stock (14%) and option (86%) gain.
The move also took it thru resistance at 65.
GME 10/21 Test BO 51.56 +1.88 52.21 60.45 916K 1.7M 50.22
Buy Not Issued.
GME 10/11 Cup hdl 51.56 +1.88 49.84 58.95 916K 2.1M 49.65
Current. Very nie recovery after the dump to the 18 day EMA
on the Wednesday close. Not a lot of trade, but a solid
price move back into the recent range testing the prior
break higher.
GYMB 10/18 Test BO 48.26 +1.36 46.35 52.95 892K 1.6M 46.24
Current. Volume was up as GYMB broke higher again, clearing
the highs in the two week lateral move. That move
took it to a new high as well.
GYMB 09/19 Cup hdl 48.26 +1.36 37.52 44.68 892K 1.4M 44.22
Current.
HMSY 10/21 Cup hdl 13.72 +0.02 14.41 17.38 54K 331K 13.39
Buy Not Hit. Very low volume again as HMSY takes a pause ahead of
the breakout move. Still a sweet pattern.
HOC 10/10 Dbl btm 48.38 -0.72 46.82 54.50 614K 1.2M 47.11
Current. Faded but on low volume, still working on the next
handle in its cup with handle base. need to see a breakout
over 49.80 on volume to show us it means business.
HOLX 10/10 Dbl btm 48.90 +0.35 48.40 55.95 640K 1.1M 47.55
Current. Still in a very tight, flat range, moving laterally
over the 10 day on very low, below avg volume. Looking
for the next strong braek higher, and when we see it
we will look at new positions.
ICE 10/18 Test 18 85.67 +2.13 83.64 94.95 1.3M 2.4M 80.32
Current. Nice price move off the 10 day EMA though volume remained
below avg and faded some. Just letting it running higher.
ICON 10/23 Test BO 18.55 0.00 18.98 22.95 260K 635K 17.98
Current.
ICON 09/30 Cup hdl 18.55 0.00 17.44 20.80 260K 665K 17.98
Current. A second day of modest losses on very low, below avg
volume. Still in excellent shape to continue higher
on this breakout move.
IIG 10/25 Asc Bse 16.02 +0.16 16.22 19.85 141K 200K 14.79
Buy Not Hit. Up modestly but no volume and just below the buy point.
Still look ssolid though it migth test a bit here before
resuming the break higher.
IM 10/25 DB hdl 20.80 +0.39 20.84 24.95 2.1M 1.5M 19.98
Entered today. Strong volume again as IM continued its breakout move.
Very nice action.
ISE 10/14 Cup hdl 52.64 -1.66 51.44 58.95 1.1M 833K 52.45
Current. Fading back some on lower though above avg volume after
that strong gap higher Wednesday.
ISE 09/16 Cup hdl 52.64 -1.66 46.05 52.95 1.1M 550K 52.45
Current.
IWM 10/24 Cup hdl 77.04 +0.64 76.20 79.25 49M 55M 75.77
Current. Again solid above average volume as IWM made the breakout
move on the heels of the strong Wed gain.
JCG 10/25 Test 18 32.82 +1.48 31.85 37.95 361K 400K 31.85
Entered today. Excellent blast off the 18 day EMA though volume was
still a bit below avg. Could not pass up that price
move, however.
KNOT 09/23 Cup hdl 25.17 +0.66 21.21 25.55 499K 490K 23.95
Current.
LRCX 10/18 Test BO 51.25 +0.24 49.75 57.45 2.8M 5.7M 49.35
Current.
LRCX 09/30 Cup hdl 51.25 +0.24 45.69 54.95 2.8M 5M 49.95
Current. A modest move higher after the strong Wed move. Volume
backed off so it was more a day of rest. Still letting
it move on up.
MVSN 08/28 DB hdl 27.11 +0.33 24.14 26.95 433K 990K 25.98
Current. Modest move higher on below avg volume. Has lost some
of its strength in terms of volume, but it has cleared
resistance and now we see if it can pick up some speed.
NIHD 10/07 Test BO 67.02 +3.60 64.55 74.45 2.4M 2.4M 62.39
Buy Not Issued. Gapped higher on strong volume. Tested 65 on the low
and rebounded. It is a buy on another test and then
starts back up again.
NVDA 10/03 Test 50 33.84 +1.04 28.26 32.50 6.1M 17M 32.32
Current. Another solid move higher after NVDA tested the 18
day MA last week. Volume is not running higher with
it, but a nice move. Has to clear 34 on this move as
that was the early October high.
NVEC 10/14 Test 50 39.65 -1.62 33.75 40.00 732K 580K 40.55
Current. Low volume test again as NVEC attempts to work laterally
and hold the gains made on the strong earnings report.
NYX 10/19 Cup hdl 73.49 -1.84 75.55 86.95 1.8M 2.4M 72.95
Buy Not Issued. Fell to close just below the 18 day EMA on rising,
average volume. Still working on the handle but going
to drop for now but keep an eye on it.
PENN 10/17 DB hdl 37.40 -1.25 39.44 46.95 1.6M 900K 37.35
Buy Not Issued. Gapped lower on strong volume. Dropping and will see
if it can set back up.
PLCE 10/11 Cup hdl 71.08 +2.14 66.56 76.75 528K 922K 68.31
Current. Solid price break to a new all-time high. Volume rose
but was still below average on the move. No complaints.
Just watching this leader continue to run up the 10
day EMA.
PLCE 09/14 Test 20 71.08 +2.14 59.85 68.00 528K 800K 66.65
Current.
PRFT 09/19 Test BO 17.27 +0.39 15.08 18.12 397K 345K 16.78
Current. Still working laterally along the 10 day EMA. Thursday
volume surged to average. Looks ready to make the next
break higher.
RVSN 10/17 Cup hdl 19.63 -0.89 19.72 23.72 1.3M 225K 19.95
Current. Tough session, gapping lower, selling off to the 18
day EMA, but then rebounding to recoup a lot of the
loss and holding above the 10 day EMA. Will have to
show us a continuation of the recovery from the 10 day.
SIGM 10/09 Cup hdl 19.05 +0.29 16.09 19.39 374K 928K 17.98
Current. Up for the second day off the 10 day EMA test, but
no volume as it tests the prior highs at 19. This
is where it has to make its next break higher.
SMSC 10/03 Cup hdl 31.67 +1.50 29.21 34.75 321K 504K 31.22
Current.
SMSC 09/16 Cup hdl 31.67 +1.50 30.05 34.75 321K 504K 31.22
Current.
SMSI 10/18 Test BO 17.24 +0.68 17.35 20.95 832K 1.1M 15.95
Buy Not Hit.
SMSI 10/04 Rev HS 17.24 +0.68 15.23 17.98 832K 1.5M 15.95
Current. Solid jump in volume to average as SMSI starts the
next break higher. Ready to buy in on a continued
breakout move.
UARM 10/18 Test BO 47.78 +0.64 45.85 54.95 546K 1M 45.95
Current.
UARM 09/11 Dbl btm 47.78 +0.64 37.12 43.00 546K 1M 45.95
Current.
UTSI 10/05 Cup hdl 10.53 +0.04 9.56 11.68 3.3M 2.5M 9.95
Current. Strong jump Wed, took the day off on lower volume Thursday.
Strong move that is stair-stepping higher.
WEBX 10/25 Dbl btm 40.11 +1.26 39.48 45.85 987K 979K 38.05
Entered today. Nice volume as WEBX continued that bounce off the 50
day EMA. Saw this leader make that initial move Wed
and we were ready for it to make its move. Nice start
to the breakout.
WST 10/23 DB hdl 42.94 +0.07 42.95 49.75 353K 400K 40.94
Buy Not Issued. Finally got the volume, but could not do anything with
it, running in place. If it continues from here on
trade it is a buy.
ZUMZ 10/14 Rev HS 32.59 +0.38 33.32 39.95 184K 923K 31.78
Buy Not Hit. Low volume lateral move continues, setting up the handle
to the base. Just have to be patient on this one.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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