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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: Not many on a tough day for stocks. DRIV
Thursday night play results:
ADS: Still set up perfectly
LQDT: Also set up to move higher
NICE: Holding the pullback at the 18 day EMA
RSTI: Tap at the 18 day EMA on low volume
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/28/2006
BLUD (Immucor--$26.80; -0.63; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blud.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-4-06
STATUS: Test breakout. BLUD broke out from a long 15 month base on base pattern in September and has formed an excellent two week flat consolidation after a solid run in early October. Thursday it jumped higher on strong volume, clearing the consolidation and ready to start the third run on the move. Friday it was generally weaker along with the market, fading on lower volume, easily holding above the 10 day EMA (26.29). May come back to fully test the 10 day EMA, but want to be ready to move in if it continues higher from here after it shakes off the Friday market pullback.
Volume: 905.213K Avg Volume: 707.43K
BUY POINT: $27.05 Volume=1.1M Target=$31.95 Stop=$25.55
POSITION: QMQ CE - Mar. $25c (68 delta, 96 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/blud.html
Play Date: 10/28/2006
CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$48.75; -1.35; optionable): Travel related services in China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html
EARNINGS: 11-8-06
STATUS: Test 50 day MA. CTRP is working through a 16 week base and after a good surge to start last week is working on making a higher low at the 50 day SMA (48.38). That type of action often precedes a breakout move. Strong volume as CTRP moved up off the higher low made in early October, and we are ready to move in this week as CTRP rebounds off this test of key support (a level it broke through last week).
Volume: 313.29K Avg Volume: 384.624K
BUY POINT: $50.55 Volume=577K Target=$60.50 Stop=$48.21
POSITION: QCT CJ - Mar. $50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ctrp.html
Play Date: 10/28/2006
LVS (Las Vegas Sands--$75.04; -1.32; optionable): Resorts and casinos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lvs.html
EARNINGS: 11-1-06
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Big week ahead for the Sands as earnings are out and a solid pattern has formed. Spent the past two weeks testing the low volume move the first half of October, coming back to and holding the 18 day EMA (74.54) to close out the week. Very nice 16 week base that is setting up the Sands for a new all-time high. Excellent 6 to 2 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows a lot of buying. Last time LVS showed us no volume when it moved. This time we want to see the trade once again, but a good move to the buy point ahead of earnings is worth some positions heading into the results.
Volume: 803.5K Avg Volume: 2.055M
BUY POINT: $76.55 Volume=3.1M Target=$88.95 Stop=$74.45
POSITION: LVS CO - Mar. $75c (58 delta) or LVS CP - Mar. $80c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/lvs.html
Play Date: 10/28/2006
MA (MasterCard--$72.64; +0.44; optionable): Credit cards, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ma.html
EARNINGS: 11-1-06 before the open
STATUS: Flying plateau. A new issue in late May, MA really got its wheels off the July low, making its first run, and it was a strong one. It hit 75 on that move and needed a breather, fading to the 18 day EMA (70.56) and then working laterally the past three weeks on very low volume, consolidating and setting up the next break higher. Strong volume Friday, this one on an upside move, shows it is ready to start the next run.
Volume: 2.674M Avg Volume: 1.576M
BUY POINT: $73.11 Volume=2.3M Target=$8775.00 Stop=$69.94
POSITION: MA DO - Apr. $75c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ma.html
Play Date: 10/28/2006
PCU (Southern Copper--$52.10; -0.38; optionable): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcu.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After that commodity spring into May PCU dove off the cliff, falling from 54 to 33. The economy is not dead, however, and it started its recovery. After such a plunge it takes some time and PCU has set up a 6 month base, working through its issues. Solid rally in October, but volume was still low. It peaked just below the old high and has formed a handle, coming back to the 10 day EMA (51.70) to test. Looking for volume to kick up as it makes that move.
Volume: 1.64M Avg Volume: 2.332M
BUY POINT: $53.65 Volume=3.2M Target=$61.95 Stop=$51.55
POSITION: PCU CX - Mar. $52.50 (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pcu.html
Play Date: 10/28/2006
SUPX (Supertex--$44.60; -1.39; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/supx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. SUPX exploded higher Wednesday on a strong earnings report, clearing a 6 month cup with handle base. Despite the woes in the chip sector, SUPX has held up well and is indeed one of the top stocks in the market in terms of earnings growth rates and a strong pattern. May come back and test some more; it was quite a surge Wednesday. If it continues higher from here, however, we will look to move in with some positions. On a further test we will let it come back and then pick it up.
Volume: 196.614K Avg Volume: 176.153K
BUY POINT: From the Friday close: $44.88. Test 43.00: 43.55 on the rebound. Volume=250K Target=$52.95 Stop=$42.55
POSITION: SQO CI - Mar. $45c (55 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/supx.html
Current plays ready to move:
Play Date: 10/26/2006
ADS (Alliance Data--$59.95; +0.20; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ads.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-18-06
STATUS: Breakout test. Still working laterally on below average volume as the 10 day EMA (59.07) comes up to meet it. So good it was worth putting on the report back to back. To recap: ADS made us a bit of money on its last move, and after a breakout last week from a nicely formed 3.5 month cup with handle it is set up to do it again. We like the first test of a breakout; when the stock moves back up on volume it shows the big money still wants it, 'proving up' the breakout. Preparing for that breakout to a new all-time high. Solid leader with strong fundamentals growth rates and a sweet pattern.
Volume: 786.1K Avg Volume: 856.582K
BUY POINT: $61.11 Volume=1.3M Target=$69.95 Stop=$58.38
POSITION: ADS CL - Mar. $60c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ads.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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