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us stock market, stock recommendation
Beign part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good Movers: BIDU; BRCM; NVEC; SIGM; SMSI; UTSI
Strong plays:
1) NUE: Excellent breakout test.
2) QLGC: Nice doji on the breakout test.
3) BAMM: Volume is starting back up as it holds the 10 day EMA
4) TWGP: Very nice action
5) LH: Nice test at the 10 day EMA continues as volume creeps higher.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 10/30/2006
CEPH (Cephalon--$70.44; +1.09; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceph.html
EARNINGS: 11-2-06
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice lateral move over the 10 day EMA (69.58) on low, below average volume, setting up the breakout from its 8 month base. Nice, steady, lower volume move, just what you want to see from the consolidation before the breakout. Plenty of room to the upside to run on the breakout.
Volume: 1.036M Avg Volume: 2.005M
BUY POINT: $71.32 Volume=3M Target=$81.95 Stop=$68.55
POSITION: CQE BN - Feb. $70c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ceph.html
Play Date: 10/30/2006
JSDA (Jones Soda--$9.91; -0.28; no options): Soft drinks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jsda.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working on a two week handle to its 22 week base, setting up nicely for the breakout toward a new all-time high. A new issue in November 2005, this is JSDA's first big base. Very nice action showing positive accumulation. Monday it reached down to the 18 day EMA on the low (9.55) and snapped back to close above the 10 day EMA. Good shakeout that you want to see during the handle formation. Now we just wait for the breakout move.
Volume: 320.524K Avg Volume: 223.854K
BUY POINT: $10.41 Volume=336K Target=$12.49 Stop=$9.68
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jsda.html
Play Date: 10/30/2006
NUE (Nucor--$57.73; -0.63; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nue.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Big surge last week on the earnings breakout from its 5.5 month base took NUE to a new all-time high and made us some great money. It is now coming back to test, holding above the 10 day EMA (57.14) Monday on low volume, setting up the rebound to continue the breakout run. Nice action; excellent action. Ready to make the next run and we are going to be there to profit from it.
Volume: 3.098M Avg Volume: 4.398M
BUY POINT: $58.27 Volume=4.5M Target=$67.95 Stop=$56.95
POSITION: NUE AY - Jan. $57.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nue.html
Play Date: 10/30/2006
QLGC (Qlogic--$20.38; -0.04; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qlgc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Coming back on lower volume the past three sessions as QLGC tests the Wednesday gap higher on strong earnings results. That move took it out of a 6 month cup with handle base and Monday it showed a hammer doji well above the 10 day EMA (20.08). May still come back to test this support, but want to be ready to move in as QLGC turns back up from the Monday close or the 10 day EMA. It shows it has the earnings and the accumulation behind it so we like this rebound play.
Volume: 1.742M Avg Volume: 2.312M
BUY POINT: $20.64 Volume=3M Target=$24.65 Stop=$19.88
POSITION: QLC DD - Apr. $20c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/qlgc.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/26/2006
ADS (Alliance Data--$60.64; +0.69; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ads.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-18-06
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped higher but still on low volume as it works laterally while the 10 day EMA rises to mee it. To recap: ADS made us a bit of money on its last move, and after a breakout last week from a nicely formed 3.5 month cup with handle it is set up to do it again. We like the first test of a breakout; when the stock moves back up on volume it shows the big money still wants it, 'proving up' the breakout. Preparing for that breakout to a new all-time high. Solid leader with strong fundamentals growth rates and a sweet pattern.
Volume: 666.7K Avg Volume: 856.582K
BUY POINT: $61.11 Volume=1.3M Target=$69.95 Stop=$58.38
POSITION: ADS CL - Mar. $60c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ads.html
Play Date: 10/23/2006
BAMM (Books-A-Million, Inc.--$20.02; +0.26; no options): Specialty retail, books
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bamm.html
EARNINGS: 11-16-06
STATUS: Test breakout. Volume was up as it tested the 18 day EMA and rebounded. Looks ready to continue breakout move now. Solid. To recap: Nice shot of above average volume last Monday as BAMM resumes its breakout move. BAMM set up a nice 13 week base over the 50 day EMA (18.07) and broke out to start October. A good run to just over 20 and then the first test, coming back to the 18 day EMA (19.39) last week. A good doji Friday and a break higher Monday on that solid trade. Positive accumulation is taking BAMM to a six year high. Nice resumption of the breakout move and we are ready to buy as it continues.
Volume: 150.902K Avg Volume: 103.548K
BUY POINT: $20.24 Volume=150K Target=$24.45 Stop=$18.94
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bamm.html
Play Date: 10/28/2006
CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$48.90; +0.15; optionable): Travel related services in China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html
EARNINGS: 11-8-06
STATUS: Test 50 day MA. Hammer doji at the 10 day EMA on the low and a nice rebound on very low volume. Made the test and now needs to show the move. To recap: CTRP is ready to make a trip of its own, working through a 16 week base and after a good surge to start last week is working on making a higher low at the 50 day SMA (48.38). That type of action often precedes a breakout move. Strong volume as CTRP moved up off the higher low made in early October, and we are ready to move in this week as CTRP rebounds off this test of key support (a level it broke through last week).
Volume: 118.14K Avg Volume: 384.624K
BUY POINT: $50.55 Volume=577K Target=$60.50 Stop=$48.21
POSITION: QCT CJ - Mar. $50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ctrp.html
Play Date: 10/25/2006
IIG (Imergent--$15.94; -0.06; optionable): eCommerce solutions to small businesses
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iig.html
EARNINGS: 11-7-06
STATUS: Ascending base. Low volume continues as IIG continues the lateral move after surging midweek last week. Refusing to give up gains is a good sign. To recap: Strong above average volume break higher Wednesday as IIG tried the breakout from its 6 month base formed making higher and higher lows above the 50 day EMA (14.29). Solid action and a nice quiet period in October before the strong Wednesday break higher. Ready to move in as this solid market leader heads higher once more.
Volume: 111.5K Avg Volume: 160.123K
BUY POINT: $16.22 Volume=200K Target=$19.85 Stop=$14.79
POSITION: IIG DC - Apr. $15c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/iig.html
Play Date: 10/28/2006
LH (Laboratory Corp.--$68.00; -0.15; optionable): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lh.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-24-06
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still testing, holding at the 10 day EMA (67.89) Monday on rising, average volume. Still looking for the break higher off this near support. To recap: Sweet little 10 week pattern has formed that used the 50 day EMA (66.79) as support. Nice break higher on the earnings news and then an excellent low volume fade back to the 10 day EMA, showing a doji at that level Friday. Excellent action and looking for the volume to jump as LH makes the breakout this week.
Volume: 1.182M Avg Volume: 1.179M
BUY POINT: $68.80 Volume=1.5M Target=$78.75 Stop=$67.22
POSITION: LH BB - Feb. $67.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lh.html
Play Date: 10/28/2006
TWGP (Tower Group--$35.70; +0.35; optionable): Property and casualty insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/twgp.html
EARNINGS: 11-2-06
STATUS: Flying plateau. Volume was low as TWGP inched higher Monday, not ready to make the move. Still set up well and just needs to get some of that volume back from last week. To recap: The lack of major tropical storms and hurricanes this year has given all the P&I insurers more money in the bank: they raised premiums, took the money, and now they get to keep it. TWGP broke higher in September, clearing a 14 week cup base on strong volume. Nice rally from 30 to 36 and then the current lateral consolidation above the 18 day EMA (34.82). Volume surged Thursday and Friday as TWGP traded flat: crouching for that next leap higher to a new all-time high. Want to see a towering break higher.
Volume: 140.213K Avg Volume: 216.235K
BUY POINT: $35.88 Volume=275K Target=$42.95 Stop=$34.57
POSITION: PTQ DF - Apr. $35c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/twgp.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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