stock watch, stock split

Begin Part 2 of 3

CYTC (Cytyc Corp--$26.46; -0.04; optionable): Scientific and Technical Instruments.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cytc.html
STATUS: An old SSR friend, CYTC has formed a nice little cup with handle since hitting a high of 30.22 in October. It gapped down toward its 10 & 50 day MVA's (26.12 and 25.39 respectively) last Friday, but blasted back up to hit 27.36 on very strong move. It has since settled down, forming a bit of a handle as it drops back, testing its 10 day today before showing a 'star' doji on low volume (down to 682,200; average 2.8 million). Looks good, and we are watching for a breakout. Target: Initially the high.
BUY POINT: 27.48 on volume of 4.2 million. Stop: 25.56.
POSITION: Stock and/or February $25 calls to buy (VQK BE).

ISSX (Internet Security--$32.24; +1.85; optionable): Internet software.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/issx.html
STATUS: ISSX made a nice breakout move from a cup with handle in early December, but fell back from that move. However, it caught the 50 day MVA (29.23), and is trying to bounce. Today it bounced over its 200 and short-term MVA's (31.21-31.53), on higher but low holiday volume (1.18 million; average 2.48 million). Can really move, so we will look for this move to pick up steam. Initially targeting the breakout high at 38.85.
BUY POINT: 33.25 on above average volume. Stop: 30.92 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or April $30 calls to buy (ISU DF - low open interest).

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK: Not looking at dates until January, but there are some great patterns.

BEST PLAYS: Besides the plays set forth below as best plays, there are some other stocks that also look good. These include Pre-Announcements FDC (has been making a great move) and NDN; Pre-Splits VAR and CHS (a new play); Continuing Candidates APPB, BBY and EASI; and Post-Split CBH.

MARKET FAVORITES BEST PLAYS:
1) PSFT - Nice handle
2) QLGC - Looking for more 50 day MVA bounce
3) INFA - Might be starting something

PSFT (Peoplesoft--$40.97; +0.10; optionable): Computer software.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psft.html
STATUS: Has made a nice, steady push up the right side of its cup (left-side highs of 45-50 from June-August), and has formed another handle the past week. Since trying a breakout that did not take hold (pulled back by the market), PSFT has held strong at the support of its 10 day MVA (40.37). Today it tested below that level before finishing with a doji on continued low volume (2.9 million; average 8.87 million), and it looks poised to try and make another move. Target: 50.
BUY POINT: 42.85 on volume of 13 million. Stop: 39.85 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or April $37.50 calls to buy (PQO DU).

QLGC (Qlogic--$47.10; +1.34; optionable): Semiconductor.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qlgc.html
STATUS: Pulled back hard from its recent high at 57, but after an initial plunge through the 50 day MVA (45.48) last week it managed to catch that support. It is trying to move back up from there, today jumping slightly from that support, but not being able to take out its 10 or 18 day MVA's (18 day at 48.20). Volume continued to be low, but holding support is good action and we know QLGC has been strong and one of the leaders on the road back. Looking for a stronger bounce, targeting the recent high.
BUY POINT: A move over the 18 day on average or better volume (11.8 million; today 3.6 million). Stop: 45.
POSITION: Stock and/or April $45 calls to buy (QLC DI).

INFA (Informatica--$14.41; +0.53; optionable): Computer software.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/infa.html
STATUS: We have been watching INFA since its big breakout move in late-November and early January, and looking for it to make a solid move up after consolidating. It has gradually pulled back along the 200 day MVA (13.51), generally holding that level on rather low volume. It made an intraday spike last week up to 16.48 before pulling back, and the last two days has moved up from the 200 day, perhaps wanting to make a move if the market gives it a chance. We are looking for volume to surge and push INFA in a rally. Target: 18.
BUY POINT: In a rally, a move over 15 on above average volume (1.33 million; today up to 640,600). Stop: 14.06.
POSITION: Stock and/or March $12.50 calls to buy (UYF CS - under 100 open interest).

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT BEST PLAYS
1) DRI - In another handle
2) DIAN - Dipped on lower volume
3) GNSS - Moving back up
4) TRDO - Looking for a bounce in the rolling range

DRI (Darden Restaurants--$36.00; +0.03; optionable): We are working on a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dri.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that DRI has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-20-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: DRI has made two big moves this month, and it has made a nice pullback to support (the 10 day MVA at 35.41) since the last move. Holiday volume has been low as the stock holds over the 10 day, showing a doji Thursday on volume of 333,400 (average 706,400). Decent action as the stock consolidates after the recent move. Looking for DRI to build strength as it moves up toward the high and beyond. Target: 43
BUY POINT: 37.59 on volume of 1 million. Stop: 34.96.
POSITION: Stock and/or April $35 calls to buy (DRI DG).

DIAN (Dianon Systems--$60.35; -1.16; optionable): Forecast to announce a split in 1-17-02 with earnings. At this time the company cannot confirm this date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dian.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that DIAN has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 10-25-00 at which no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: After making the solid bounce we were looking for on the breakout test (from its July-November range of 42-55), DIAN continued up Wednesday. However, after making a new high at 62.25, DIAN dipped back today, hitting 59.32 at its low (10 day MVA at 57.97), but holding the previous breakout high (60) to close. Volume had been very good on the surge Wednesday, but it dipped back today to 213,000 (average 203,400) as we would want it to on selling. If we get a bit of a continued pullback, we will look for the stock to hold 60 and make another solid push. Excellent money low and buying. Target: 65.
BUY POINT: After holding 60, a move back over 61 on above average volume. Stop: 56.84.
POSITION: Stock and/or February $55 calls to buy (UID BK - low open interest).

GNSS (Genesis Microchip--$68.56; +2.11; optionable): Semiconductor. Working on a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gnss.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that GNSS has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-20-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: After its solid run in late-November and early December, GNSS pulled back, but after some initial hard selling, it caught firm support at the 18 day MVA (63.66) and has made a move back up the last two sessions. As with the market as a whole, not a lot of volume on the push (down to 1.56 million today; average 2.5 million), but there has been good accumulation on this stock of late, and we volume can kick in on this one at any time. We will look for strong volume to push GNSS back over the recent high of 70.91. On that move, a target of 80 initially.
BUY POINT: 71.03 on above average volume. Stop: 66.06 (7%).
POSITION: March $65 calls to buy (QFE CM).

TRDO (Intrado--$27.04; +0.44; optionable): Business software. Working on a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trdo.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that TRDO has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-26-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Rolling up and down in the range of 26-31. It has been erratic in this range, making rather abrupt moves, but playable. After crashing down hard last Friday (as it has on other drops on the pattern), TRDO has again caught support at 26, showing another loose doji today after tapping its 50 day MVA at its intraday high of 27.50. Volume was again below average at 240,400 (average 316,700), and we will look for a stronger move back up in its range to puly up to the recent highs at 31.
BUY POINT: 28 on above average volume. Stop: 26.04 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or February $25 calls to buy (UNC BE).

PRE-SPLITS BEST PLAYS: Remember, we try to grab these as they break out of good patterns or as they start a run right before the split. Not looking for home runs, but looking for those $3 to $4 moves running into the split, watching for topping signs and potential resistance. Not huge money, but it can be very steady. We set our initial stops at the 7-8% range below the purchase price (or just below obvious support), and move them up on a move to preserve our profits.
1) XRAY - Looking good on the test
2) HRH - Making a move going into the split

XRAY (Dentsply Internat--$49.37; +0.39; optionable): Medical instruments. Splits 3:2 effective February 1.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
STATUS: Very nice looking. XRAY made a big move last week, hitting a new all-time high of 51.14, but has settled back a bit since. It has done well, holding its prior December high (48.80) and 10 day MVA (48.67), with volume dipping back and showing good action. After tapping the 10 day Wednesday the stock pushed back up a bit today, and the pattern looks good. Looking for another strong move. Good money flow and buying. Target: If it can take out the high, 57.
PLAY: From here: Over 50 on above average volume (227,200; today 194,700), with stock and/or January $45 calls to buy (XAQ AI). Stop: 46.62. Over the high: 51.26 on above average volume. Stop: 47.67.

HRH (Hilb Rogal & Hamilton; $56.40; +1.60; optionable): Insurance Brokers. Splits 2:1 effective 1-2-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hrh.html
STATUS: Gave up the 50 day MVA (56.27) last week with a hard drop, but after a couple of dojis it has mounted a run back up, closing back over the 50 day today. It tapped up to its 18 day MVA at its high of 56.80 before coming back a bit to close. Making a nice run, and we will look for more. Two more sessions before the split, so a quick play, with some possible resistance in its November range of 58-60, with the high up at 62.75.
PLAY: 57, with stock.

PAST SPLITS BEST PLAYS
1) FIC - In a handle and looks ready to breakout

FIC (Fair Isaac & Co--$64.10; +1.40; optionable): Business services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fic.html
STATUS: FIC has moved into another handle (to a cup dating back to the July high of 69.90) after its early-December breakout. Looking good, holding support at its 10 day MVA (63.06), and today FIC pushed back up from that level as volume increased sharply (164,100; average 190,000). The surge in volume and move up from support looks good, and we are looking for a breakout. Targeting the all-time high.
BUY POINT: 65.12 on volume of 290,000. Stop: 60.56.
POSITION: Stock and/or April $60 calls to buy (FIC DL).

CONTINUING CANDIDATES BEST PLAYS:
1) AZO - Continuing the consolidation
2) TJX - Strong move back up

AZO (Autozone--$73.03; +0.03; optionable): Auto Parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/azo.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in March of 1994 at a price of $58. The annual shareholder meeting was on 12-14-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized.
STATUS: Has formed a tight consolidation since its amazing breakout that hit 79.90 on huge volume when it announced its earnings. Since then it gradually pulled back to the support of its short-term MVA's (18 day at 72.54), moving laterally and showing a tight doji today over the 18 day. Volume spiked way up Wednesday as the stock pulled back but held smartly at the 18 day, so we will see if strong volume vaults AZO back up for another solid play. Still looks nice. We are initially targeting the breakout high, and see how it handles that.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move over 75 on volume of 2 million (average 1.5 million; today 757,000). Stop: 70.22 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or March $70 calls to buy (AZO AN).

TJX (TJX Companies--$39.38; +1.05; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 12-5-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The company will not confirm this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the board meeting.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tjx.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-8-98 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $43. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-5-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: Made the move! Has been very erratic, but after receiving an upgrade and trying several times to breakout through 39 and hold the move, today it finally succeeded. TJX has shown several dojis after having moved over 39 intraday, but the stock managed to hold the 18 day MVA (37.90). Today it gapped up and continued the move on sharply higher, strong volume of 1.32 million (average 1.26 million). Although it has been erratic, it has been hold steadily at support (making regular tests toward the 50 day and then holding the 18 day in between), and this strong move could push it up toward a target of 46.
BUY POINT: 39.65 on increased volume. Stop: 36.87.
POSITION: Stock and/or April $35 calls to buy (TJX DG).

POST-SPLITS BEST PLAYS:
1) CACI - Powerful move

CACI (Caci International--$41.65; +2.72; optionable): Technical Services. Split 2:1 effective 12-7-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/caci.html
STATUS: Has held up pretty well post-split, but was foundering a bit. It found support twice this month at 37.50, and after a small move up Wednesday from that level, CACI made a strong move today. Volume kicked in, coming in at 804,600 (average 378,700) as the stock made a nice move up toward its recent high (43.20). A solid move, and we are looking for the stock to take out its high on the way to a target of 48.
PLAY: 43.32 on continued strong volume, with stock and/or March $40 calls to buy (KFQ CH). Stop: 40.29.

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REMAINING PLAYS:
****
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS REMAINING PLAYS:

Watchlist:

DHR ($60.69; +0.74): Forecast to announce a split in late January in conjunction with earnings. At this time, the company cannot confirm a date for earnings release. Lowered its outlook recently and was downgraded, and has since been trying to scratch back up. It is again battling a long-term down trendline at 61.50, today pulling back from that level to close. We will see if it can hold on and form up better.

SRCL ($61.50; -0.67): Forecast to announce a split on 2-19-02 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings. Continues to crawl up its 10 day MVA (61.31) on light volume, and now leveling out a bit. It could still make another move from here, but it has bounced three times off of the 18 day MVA after the breakout, and we are reluctant to chase it here until it corrects back further. Watch existing positions for a break below the 18 day MVA (60).

EDS ($69.60; +1.23): We are researching a date. Has made recent double tops and fallen back, but is trying to climb back up after having held at the 50 day MVA (67.20). We got huge volume after a gap down and bounce last week, but for positions we would need to see a move over the high of 72.45 with volume in the 4 million range (average 3.38 million), with stock and/or March $70 calls to buy (EDS CN).

MI ($63.90; +0.30): We are researching a forecast date. Is holding up after making a fourth run from the 18 day MVA (62.82), and this resilient move could provide another bounce but that is an aggressive play from here as fifth bounces can often fade very quickly. The 50 day is back at 61.03. The aggressive can pay a move over 64 on above average volume (250,000; today 146,100), with stock and/or March $60 calls to buy (MI CL).

BMS ($49.22; +0.21): We are researching a date in January. After the weak breakout early this month, BMS has dipped back, today again closing back below its 18 day MVA (49.58). It could still drop to the 50 day (48.20) where it has to hold. On a good bounce on strong volume that could be a good entry.

THQI ($51.20; -1.30): We are working on a date. A failed breakout turned into a failed test of the 50 day (53.59), and today THQI dropped back again. Has some further support there from October consolidation lows at 50 and the 200 day at 48.53, so we will see if it can hold.

XL ($90.00; -1.00): Researching a date. Continues to move in a tight range, holding about its 50 day MVA (90.20) but constrained by the short-term (18 day at 91.14). Volume continues to be low, but we are watching for a possible jump out of its slumber. The break to a new high is a move over 96.50 on volume of 2.7 million, and the aggressive play is on a move over 93 on above average volume, both with stock and/or April $90 calls to buy (XL DR).

SONC ($37.03; -0.26): We are working on a date. SONC made a steady move up on very low volume the past couple of weeks, including a couple of stronger moves recently (including Wednesday). Today it gapped up and reversed, but volume was low on the dip (105,900; average 254,500), and it moved back up to close from a low of 36.41. Protecting existing positions, but if it can hold the 36 range on a low-volume pullback it can set up again.

WLP ($116.40; +0.90): Working on a date. In a large cup dating back to late December 2000 (left side high: 120), but it has fallen out of its handle consolidation, catching its 50 day MVA (114.11). It was finally able to hold a move over the short-term (18 day at 116.04), but volume was weak. We will see if it can develop.

Plays:

JCI (Johnson Controls--$81.22; +0.07; optionable): Auto parts. Forecast to announce a split on 1-18-02 in conjunction with earnings. At this time, the company cannot confirm this date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jci.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that JCI has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was 0n 1-24-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Back in the range of its pre-September 11 range. JCI started a strong move up from recent lows at 77.50 recently, but has stalled although it is holding its short-term MVA's (18 day at 79.98). We will see if it can continue to hold, looking for a move over the high (82.70) with more strong volume. Target: 90.
BUY POINT: 82.82 on volume of 700,000 (today up to 401,900; average 408,700). Stop: 77.25.
POSITION: Stock and/or January $75 calls to buy (JCI AO - low open interest).

BRL (Barr Laboratories--$80.21; -0.04; optionable): Researching a split date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 5-31-00 in conjunction with a board meeting, at a price of $52. The annual shareholder meeting was on 10-25-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. There are sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Was in a nice lateral pattern, but has drifted up along its 10 day MVA (78.42) on light volume. BRL made triple tops at 90 in July-October, but after retreating to 60 in November it has made a nice recovery. We were looking for another strong run after it early December move and then consolidation, but from here we could see a test back. Today it did tap back to the 10 day at its low (78.25) and then recovered for a doji. The aggressive can make a play from here, but we need to see volume; also, we will remember that breakouts from this type of upwardly-moving pattern can be prone to quick failure. Target: 90.
BUY POINT: From here: 81 on above average volume (1.1 million; today up to 448,600). Stop: 75.33 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or February $75 calls to buy (BRL BO).

End Part 2 of 3

stock watch
stock split