stock watch, stock split

Begin Part 3 of 3

FDC (First Data--$79.94; +1.30; optionable): Working on a forecast date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdc.html
BACKGROUND: Last split was a 2:1 on 11-18-96 at a stock price of $80. The annual shareholder meeting was on 1-11-01 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Has made a nice move although with low holiday volume. FDC broke out Wednesday and continued up today, moving on increased volume of 1.35 million (average 1.98 million). FDC took out its former (July) high when it moved out of a reverse head and shoulders in early November, and since has made a nice move up along the 18 day. We will see if it can sustain this move, getting a bit more volume to help it along the way. FDC has made two tests of the 18 day since its breakout, we could see a couple of more bounces on this move to ride with longer term positions. Target: 87.
BUY POINT: Still a buy up to 81.90, but we want to see volume kick in at the 2.4 million range.
POSITION: Stock and/or February $75 calls to buy (FDC BO).

NDN (99 Cents Only Stores--$39.18; -0.62; optionable): Retail. Researching a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ndn.html
STATUS: Tried to break from its handle Wednesday, but volume was not there and it pulled back from its high of 40.10. Today it dipped back, but volume was lower still and NDN tapped its 10 day MVA (38.78) at its low before recovering slightly. Not bad action, and we will look for it to hold the 10 day and set up another strong move to break out. We will watch the recent high at 42 on a move up, targeting 45.
BUY POINT: Breakout: After holding the 10 day, 40.22 on volume of 600,000. Stop: 37.40 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or March $35 calls to buy (NDN CG).

PRE-SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:

Watchlist:

CPRT (Copart--$38.22; -0.28; optionable): Splits 3:2 effective 1-22-02. Made a nice move up, but it struggling at the resistance of its upper channel trendline drawn from its December tops. It dipped back to that level today, and we are protecting positions from a drop back to the 10 or 18 day MVA's (36.96 and 36). We can play another move from that support.

SYMC ($65.01; -0.30): Splits 2:1 effective February 1. Was in a nice handle to its double bottom base, but took a big hit last week and is struggling below its short-term MVA's (66). Still, volume is very low and it is holding at 65 for 4 sessions. It could drop back to the 50 day at 61 before we see anything to the upside, but we are not giving up on it just yet.

FLO ($39.45; +0.23): Splits 3:2 on 1-3-02. Struggling below the 50 day MVA (39.60), and not able to make a move going into the split.

MOVI ($23.17; +0.17): Splits 3:2 effective 1-4-02. Again below the 50 day (23.95), unable to give us a move going toward the split.

New Pre-Split Play:

CHS (Chico's Fas--$40.36; +0.13; optionable): Retail apparel. Splits 3:2 effective 1-19-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chs.html
STATUS: Broke out from a double bottom with handle last week, hitting a high on the move of 42 Monday. It made a rather strong dip Wednesday, but successfully rebounded from the 10 day MVA (39.15; over the prior breakout point of 38.30) to close with a 'hammer doji.' Volume was lower than on the selling at 668,600 (average 661,300), but catching support on the test is key. We will see if it can continue to hold the 10 day and make a strong move back up as we go toward the split. Target: 45.
PLAY: After holding the 10 day, a move back over 41, with stock and/or February $35 calls to buy (CHS BG). Stop: 38.50.

Continuing Plays:

LIZ (Liz Claiborne--$49.80; -019; optionable): Apparel. Splits 2:1 effective 1-17-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/liz.html
STATUS: Like many stocks, LIZ was trending up nicely before September, but after free-falling to 36 the stock has battled back near pre-attack levels. It has hit up against the lower end of its August range twice, dropping back from 52 in November and early December. At its lows it has held the 200 day MVA (48.47; 50 day at 48.97), now stuck in a narrow range around its short-term MVA's (50). We will see if it can hold and make a run. The next level of resistance is the July high at 54.95.
PLAY: Aggressive: Over 50.64, with stock and/or April $45 calls to buy (under 100 open interest; February has no open). Stop: 47.10. Over recent highs: 52.12, with stock and/or April $50 calls to buy (LIZ DJ). Stop: 49.

VAR (Varian Medical--$69.25; -1.50; optionable): Scientific & Technical Instruments. Splits 2:1 effective 1-16-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/liz.html
STATUS: Topped at 76.50 in late November before tumbling back through its 50 and 200 day MVA's (68.20 and 67.63), but has fought back from lows at 65. Wednesday saw a big run up from that level, moving on solid volume. The move did not last, but today's pullback was on much lower volume (191,400; average 242,500), and it is holding well over support. Looking for it to hold here or at the 50 day with continued low volume, and get a continuation of the push up. Targeting the recent high.
PLAY: After holding here, a move back over 70, with stock and/or February $65 calls to buy (VAR BM - under 100 open interest). Stop: 67.

PAST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:

LUV ($18.79; +0.22): LUV is trying to hold on in a handle to its cup pattern, tapping close to its 50 day MVA (18.11) but managing to close in the range of it short-term MVA's (10 day at 18.81). We will see if it can hold the 50 day and set something up. Looking very promising.

CONTINUING CANDIDATES REMAINING PLAYS: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date.

Watchlist:

ACS ($104.45; +0.49): ACS still drifts up, well over its 10 day MVA (102.20) and the upper channel trendline (which has been resistance in this uptrend since late 2000). The move has us way of a drop, and on existing positions we can look at selling some January $100 calls, looking at the 10 day and trendline as potential support, but it could drop lower to the November high (97.45). When the stock finally does hold, that is the point at which the calls would be bought back at the lower price. On the move to 102, January $100 calls to sell (ACS AT).

BBBY ($33.67; +0.32): Trying to move, struggling again against one of its long-term up trendlines at 34. Today it showed a doji on continued low volum (1.99 million; average 4.3 million). For aggressive positions we need a move over 34 on above average volume, with stock and/or February $30 calls to buy (BHQ BF).

FLIR ($37.00; -0.92): Has continued down toward the target of 34, but after tapping 35.61 at its low today FLIR recovered to show a loose "hammer" doji, with volume spiking way up to 896,400 (average 380,000). With open positions we are being careful of a possible strong bounce up, ready to close if we get it.

GTK ($45.65; +0.61): Made a higher low this time, catching 44 after its recent bounce from the 50 day (then 42, now 43) hit 46.50 and retreated. Trying to form up and ascending wedge, but had a hard time clearing resistance at 46 today and fell off the high on rising, much stronger volume (424,500, just below average). If it can clear 46 and hold on above average volume, we like the odds of a new high over 47.50.

IGT ($71.03; +1.77): Made the move we were looking for Wednesday, breaking out of its recent consolidation and continuing the steady, solid action we have seen. Today it gapped up and hit 71.95 but closed with a doji on high volume (2.03 million; average 1.17 million). Off of this pattern we are protecting short-term positions from a potential drop back to the 10 or 18 day MVA's (67.50 and 66.20).

JEC ($66.94; -0.47): Made a nice recovery, and is now trying to hold the 50 day MVA (67.29, with the short-terms), tsting down to 65 again today (200 day at 64.25). we will see if it can hold on and form a playable pattern.

RMD ($53.40; -0.78): Still riding those puts after RMD could not get any strength behind its move up. The target it's the 200 day (51.65), although the stock appears to have support at today's low of 52.79, the vicinity of which it has tapped in intraday lows a few times this month.

SLM ($81.80; +0.05): Dipped back through the buy point for a put (81.38), but after hitting 80.73 (October low of 80.45) it reversed. The higher volume (680,200; average 665,000) on a loose 'hammer' doji could spell a bounce, so we will be wary of that, and there is upside resistance at the 10 day (82.70) up to the 50 day (83.80) that could push it back down and toward the ultimate target of the 200 day MVA, at 77.32.

STJ ($76.58; -0.54): Making a bit of headway, taking out its recent (failed) breakout high of 77.25. There has been no volume on the move back up, but the move down the last two sessions has likewise been without conviction. We will see if it can hold the 10 day MVA (75.98), setting up for a better move with some volume behind it. The play is on a move over 78.07 on above average volume (713,300), with stock and/or April $75 calls to buy (STJ DO).

Plays:

APPB (Applebee's--$34.92; -0.33; optionable): Restaurants.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/appb.html
STATUS: Has pulled back and caught support again at its 18 day MVA (34.95), dipping below that point again today but recovering to close. Volume has been falling off on the move (295,200; average at 435,000). Looking for an 18 day MVA bounce, challenging the recent high of 36.89. The 18 day has been solid support on recent moves, which have seen APPB break from a cup with handle earlier this month, and on this test is holding well over the former handle high at 34. Target: Initially, the recent high.
BUY POINT: On a move to 35.62 on increased volume over the average of 435,000 (down to 295,200 today). Stop: 33.13.
POSITION: Stock and/or February $30 calls to buy (AQB BF).

THC (Tenet Healthcare--$58.50; +0.56; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thc.html
STATUS: THC made the strong breach of the 50 day MVA (58.75) last week, and is still trying to test that former support. Today it reached up to 58.79 but could not hold the move, with volume continued low at 1.56 million (average 2 million). We could still get a put play, but we need to see the strong move down, targeting the September-October lows at 54 (200 day at 52.23).
BUY POINT: A move through 58 on volume of 2.5 million.
POSITION: January $65 puts to buy (THC MM).

BBY (Best Buy--$73.90; +1.03; optionable): Did not get the announcement with earnings, but it made a great move on the numbers!
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bby.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 2-22-99 with a board meeting. The stock price was $95. Prior to that announced a 2:1 split on 4-24-98 with a board meeting. The stock price was $71. The annual shareholder meeting was 6-26-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: With the positive earnings announcement, BBY made a nice bounce from the 65 level. After a nice run, however, it could not take out its recent high, reaching up to 74.92 last week but pulling back and moving laterally since. We will see if it can make a move from here over the recent high, not succumbing to a double top pattern. With BBY's numbers we will look for continued strength after a rest.
BUY POINT: 75.04 on volume of 4 million. Stop: 69.79 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or March $70 calls to buy (BBY CN).

EASI (Engineered Support--$34.43; +0.24; optionable): Aerospace/Defense.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/easi.html
BACKGROUND: EASI last announced a 5:4 split on 2-1-2001 with a board meeting at a price of $28.50. Before that it announced on 6-12-98 at a price of $26.50. The company has sufficient shares for a 3:2 split.
STATUS: EASI has made a steady push back up from our put target of 30, but volume has been low and it could be setting up another play. It is encountering resistance at 35, showing consecutive dojis at its 10 day MVA (34.30) as volume has dipped very low (91,100; average 500,000). From here, on a drop back through the lows from the last two days with solid volume, we can look at a put play back down to 30.
BUY POINT: On a move through 33.25 on average or better volume.
POSITION: January $40 puts to buy (UFE MH).

POST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:

Watchlist:

CHBS ($33.51; +0.59): Split 3:2 effective 12-13-01. Just blew it out last week and early this week, making a very solid breakout run. It dipped back Wednesday and starting today, but after hitting 32 ran back up today on good volume (713,900; average 400,000). Still riding positions, watching the breakout high at 34.45 as possible resistance. It could be ready to rumble from here once again.

SASR ($32.44; -0.38): Split 3:2 on 12-21-01. Made a nice pre-split run that continued after the split, but we need to watch out for a slump here, as SASR closed well off of its high of 33.14 with a loose doji. Support below is in the 31 range.

KIM ($33.30; +0.26): Split 3:2 effective 12-24-01. Tried to bounce post-split, showing gaps up and reversals the last two sessions. Not good at the moment for upside action, and we are dropping.

Plays:

CBH (Commerce Bancorp--$38.26; -0.58; optionable): Split 2:1 effective 12-19-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbh.html
STATUS: Held up nicely post split, finding support at 38 (November highs). It made a push on good volume Wednesday, but drew back today on lower volume (179,100; average 155,000). Still in good position in a pennant pattern, and we are looking for it to take out the recent high of 39.49. Good money flow. Target on the breakout: 45.
PLAY: 39.61 on volume of 350,000, with stock and/or March $35 calls to buy (CBH CG - low open interest).

FMBI (First Midwest Bancorp--$29.04; +0.39; no options): Split 5:4 effective 12-17-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fmbi.html
STATUS: Looking pretty solid here if somewhat volatile. Made a nice breakout move on the split (somewhat unusual, but we liked the pattern, and good pattern we can ride through a split with caution). It is a bit erratic, showing wide intraday ranges but holding the 10 day MVA (28.55) to close and making higher lows. Today it ran back up from the 10 day, challenging the high (29.25). Not bad as it holds the former breakout level (28.20), and although it is erratic the aggressive can play a breakout.
PLAY: Aggressive: 29.36 on continued strong volume, with stock. Stop: 27.30

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

stock watch
stock split