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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good Movers: HOC
Strong plays:
1) DJO: Nice higher low in the making
2) IO: Nice breakout test as IO comes back on low volume in an very orderly manner.
3) VCLK: Nice set up and now we see if earnings can send it higher
4) ADS: Still nicely set up
5) BAMM: Tight lateral range.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 11/01/2006
DJO (DJ Orthopedics--$40.10; -0.13; optionable): Rehabilitation and regeneration products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/djo.html
EARNINGS: 11-2-06 before the open.
STATUS: Ascending triangle. DJO is making a higher low above the 50 day EMA (39.63), setting up for the breakout from its 6 month triangle and on to a new all-time high. Very solid pattern with a constant top near 42. Looking for volume to jump in a bit before that move and then again on a break over 42 on some more strong trade. Looking for earnings to give it the boost.
Volume: 221K Avg Volume: 205.021K
BUY POINT: $41.21 Volume=280K Target=$48.75 Stop=$38.95
POSITION: DJO CH - Mar. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/djo.html
Play Date: 11/01/2006
GLDN (Golden Telecom--$36.35; -0.66; optionable): Russian wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gldn.html
EARNINGS: 11-8-06
STATUS: Breakout test. GLDN is testing the 18 day EMA (36.14), coming back on lower volume to test the early October breakout from a 21 week cup with handle base. The move took GLDN to a 5 year high (it came public 6 years back) and now it is coming back to test along with the market. Looking for it to hold near this near support level and rebound on rising trade.
Volume: 221.164K Avg Volume: 89.721K
BUY POINT: $37.22 Volume=245K Target=$44.45 Stop=$35.88
POSITION: QDV CG - Mar. $35c (58 delta, no OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gldn.html
Play Date: 11/01/2006
IO (Input/Output--$11.11; -0.10; optionable): Seismic instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/io.html
EARNINGS: 11-9-06
STATUS: Breakout test. IO broke higher the second week of October, moving out of a 22 week cup with handle base. Nice strong breakout and now a sweet, low volume test of the move, tapping at the 18 day EMA (10.89) on the low and rebounding to hold the 10 day EMA on the close. Solid action and looking for volume to rally as it makes the move.
Volume: 648.5K Avg Volume: 745.848K
BUY POINT: $11.38 Volume=750K Target=$13.65 Stop=$10.78
POSITION: IO BB - Feb. $10c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/io.html
Play Date: 11/01/2006
VCLK (Valueclick--$18.86; +0.06; optionable): Online marketing services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vclk.html
EARNINGS: Reported after the close Wednesday
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. VCLK broke sharply higher last Thursday on strong volume, moving out of a 10 month base. It came back to test ahead of earnings, showing a high volume doji Wednesday that tapped at the 18 day EMA on the low and rebounded. After hours it reported solid earnings and was up, fading some late into the session. Looking for those earnings to carry it higher Thursday. It looks as if may open below our buy point and then build into it. Looking solid.
Volume: 2.977M Avg Volume: 1.617M
BUY POINT: $19.57 Volume=2.4M Target=$23.50 Stop=$18.38
POSITION: QCS CD - Mar. $20c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vclk.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/26/2006
ADS (Alliance Data--$60.27; -0.45; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ads.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-18-06
STATUS: Breakout test. Reached way down intraday but rebounded to hold the 10 day EMA (59.72) on the close. Still set up well, forming the handle, thus far ignoring the selling. To recap: ADS made us a bit of money on its last move, and after a breakout last week from a nicely formed 3.5 month cup with handle it is set up to do it again. We like the first test of a breakout; when the stock moves back up on volume it shows the big money still wants it, 'proving up' the breakout. Preparing for that breakout to a new all-time high. Solid leader with strong fundamentals growth rates and a sweet pattern.
Volume: 2.172M Avg Volume: 852.674K
BUY POINT: $61.11 Volume=1.3M Target=$69.95 Stop=$58.38
POSITION: ADS CL - Mar. $60c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ads.html
Play Date: 10/31/2006
AQNT (Aquantive--$26.90; -0.28; optionable): Digital marketing company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aqnt.html
EARNINGS: 11-2-06
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Tested a bit lower Wednesday, tapping the 18 day EMA on the low and rebounding as volume jumped above average. Still a nice pattern and looking for earnings to help it toward the breakout. To recap: Low volume test of the 10 day EMA the past week as AQNT tries to put the finishing touches on a nicely formed 10 month base. This base is setting up a breakout to a 6.5 year high. Excellent money flow is leading higher as this market leader looks ready for the breakout.
Volume: 1.227M Avg Volume: 1.157M
BUY POINT: $28.45 Volume=1.7M Target=$33.95 Stop=$26.89
POSITION: QBT CE - Mar. $25c (69 delta, 84 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aqnt.html
Play Date: 10/23/2006
BAMM (Books-A-Million, Inc.--$19.86; -0.13; no options): Specialty retail, books
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bamm.html
EARNINGS: 11-16-06
STATUS: Test breakout. Ignoring the selling, moving laterally over the 10 day EMA (19.82) as it sets up its next break higher. Like how it is going about its own business, but needs to show us the breakout move. To recap: Nice shot of above average volume last Monday as BAMM resumes its breakout move. BAMM set up a nice 13 week base over the 50 day EMA (18.28) and broke out to start October. A good run to just over 20 and then the first test, coming back to the 18 day EMA. Positive accumulation is taking BAMM to a six year high.
Volume: 123.646K Avg Volume: 103.476K
BUY POINT: $20.24 Volume=150K Target=$24.45 Stop=$18.94
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bamm.html
Play Date: 10/30/2006
CEPH (Cephalon--$69.94; -0.24; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceph.html
EARNINGS: 11-2-06
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Continues its lateral move over the 10 day EMA, setting up for the breakout when earnings come out Thursday. To recap: Nice lateral move over the 10 day EMA on low, below average volume, setting up the breakout from its 8 month base. Nice, steady, lower volume move, just what you want to see from the consolidation before the breakout. Plenty of room to the upside to run on the breakout.
Volume: 2.773M Avg Volume: 1.993M
BUY POINT: $71.32 Volume=3M Target=$81.95 Stop=$68.55
POSITION: CQE BN - Feb. $70c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ceph.html
Play Date: 10/28/2006
CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$47.39; -1.61; optionable): Travel related services in China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html
EARNINGS: 11-8-06
STATUS: Test 50 day MA. Sold off some on the BIDU news but volume was still low and the pattern held. Still being patient with it to see if it can deliver the move higher. Volatile but can run well. To recap: CTRP is ready to make a trip of its own, working through a 16 week base and after a good surge to start last week is working on making a higher low at the 50 day SMA (47.83). That type of action often precedes a breakout move. Strong volume as CTRP moved up off the higher low made in early October, and we are ready to move in this week as CTRP rebounds off this test of key support (a level it broke through last week).
Volume: 319.585K Avg Volume: 380.07K
BUY POINT: $50.55 Volume=577K Target=$60.50 Stop=$48.21
POSITION: QCT CJ - Mar. $50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ctrp.html
Play Date: 10/30/2006
QLGC (Qlogic--$20.16; -0.42; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qlgc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Did not escape the tech pullback Wednesday, but volume remained low and below average as QLGC faded to the 10 day EMA (20.17). Filling the gap a bit more and just going to let it make this test and then rebound from the test. To recap: Coming back on lower volume the past three sessions as QLGC tests last week's gap higher on strong earnings results. That move took it out of a 6 month cup with handle base and Monday it showed a hammer doji well above the 10 day EMA (20.08). May still come back to test this support, but want to be ready to move in as QLGC turns back up from the Monday close or the 10 day EMA. It shows it has the earnings and the accumulation behind it so we like this rebound play.
Volume: 2.001M Avg Volume: 2.312M
BUY POINT: $20.64 Volume=3M Target=$24.65 Stop=$19.88
POSITION: QLC DD - Apr. $20c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/qlgc.html
Play Date: 10/28/2006
STLD (Steel Dynamics--$59.49; -0.62; optionable): Steel & iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stld.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still testing the 10 day EMA (59.57), continuing forming the handle to the 6 month base. Like how it is ignoring the market action, going about its own business. Money flow remains well out ahead of price, begging the stock price to follow it.
Volume: 1.166M Avg Volume: 1.37M
BUY POINT: $62.22 Volume=2.1M Target=$72.45 Stop=$59.95
POSITION: RQL BL - Feb. $60c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stld.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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