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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good Movers: DJO; GME; IIG; NYX
Strong plays:
1) AMAG: Excellent test of the breakout.
2) FFIV: Tested the 10 day EMA after the earnings gap.
3) MRVC: Showing a lot of life.
4) SEIC: Excellent 50 day EMA test.
5) GLDN: Nice doji at the 18 day EMA on the test.
6) QLGC: A pair of dojis on the 18 day EMA.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 11/04/2006
AMAG (Advanced Magnetics--$39.85; -0.16; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amag.html
EARNINGS: 11-20-06
STATUS: Test breakout. Big surge in mid-October to take AMAG out of its 6.5 month base. Nice test the past two weeks, coming back to the 18 day EMA (39.56) Thursday and Friday. Volume jumped Friday as it tested through the 18 day and then rebounded. Nice breakout to a new all-time high, riding that strong 7 to 3 accumulation (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) to the breakout. That will keep it going after this test.
Volume: 347.378K Avg Volume: 204.173K
BUY POINT: $40.68 Volume=350K Target=$48.85 Stop=$39.07
POSITION: AVM BH - Feb. $40c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amag.html
Play Date: 11/04/2006
CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill--$57.08; +0.29; optionable): Casual restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-31-06
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A new issue in January, the current 6 month base is its first real consolidation. After earnings it gapped lower to the 18 day EMA (56.60) Thursday and Friday to finish the week, showing a pair of dojis on the candlestick chart at that point. Looking for it to regroup at this level and then show us the breakout move.
Volume: 814K Avg Volume: 969.826K
BUY POINT: $57.65 Volume=1.4M Target=$66.98 Stop=$55.45
POSITION: CMG CK - Mar. $55c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cmg.html
Play Date: 11/04/2006
MRVC (MRV Communications--$3.40; +0.19; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrvc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-25-06
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Gapped higher on the earnings, rallying to 3.50 on the move. It was not immune from last week's selling, however, but it faded to test with some style, filling the gap on Thursday and then rebounding Friday on rising volume. Money flow is rallying higher ahead of price, and that looks as if it is going to pull MRVC to a breakout from its 8 month base.
Volume: 1.283M Avg Volume: 1.315M
BUY POINT: $3.49 Volume=2M Target=$4.32 Stop=$3.23
POSITION: MQU CZ - Mar. $2.50c (62 delta, 75 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mrvc.html
Play Date: 11/04/2006
NTGR (Netgear--$26.11; -0.02; optionable): Telecom communications gear
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntgr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-27-06
STATUS: Test breakout. NTGR is another market leading stock in fundamentals growth, and it showed that again a week back when it announced earnings and gapped massively out of a 5 month cup with handle base. After such a move it was likely to test, and we were just watching it to see when it would start to hold. Wednesday it tested 26 and rebounded to cut its losses. Thursday and Friday it held 26 again. That point may prove to be the bottom of the pullback even though it is still well above the 10 day EMA (25.29) that is often used as support on breakouts. It can still test that level and if it does we will let it and then move in when it rebounds. If it continues higher from here as it looked like it wanted to do to end last week we will also be ready to move in with a buy.
Volume: 528.14K Avg Volume: 660.295K
BUY POINT: From the Friday close: $26.38. On a test of the 10 day EMA (25.29), 25.65 on the rebound. Volume=750K Target=$31.48 Stop=$24.98
POSITION: TUD CE - Mar. $25c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ntgr.html
Play Date: 11/04/2006
SEIC (SEI Investments--$56.06; +0.49; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/seic.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-18-06
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. SEIC made us some nice money on its strong July to early October run, marching up the 18 day EMA (56.73). It peaked just over 60 mid-October and then started the current test. After a breakout and strong run up the short term moving averages a stock needs a deeper rest, and the 50 day EMA is typically the point it holds if the move is going to continue. After that test it rebounds and starts the run again. SEIC found the 50 day EMA (55.28) a week back and has moved laterally since then. Volume jumped Friday as it started to bounce. Looking to move in as it continues this rebound on solid volume off this support.
Volume: 787.777K Avg Volume: 611.408K
BUY POINT: $56.84 Volume=850K Target=$64.95 Stop=$55.32
POSITION: QEI CK - Mar. $55c (59 delta, 74 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/seic.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 11/04/2006
FFIV (F5 Networks--$64.17; +0.62; optionable): Internet traffic management software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-25-06
STATUS: Test breakout. FFIV exploded out of a 7 month double bottom with handle base in late October on some solid earnings results. It showed a lot of strength, managing to hold its gains as the market weakened, though it started to give back some ground with the Wednesday selling. Not much, however. It held the line above the 10 day EMA (63.07) to end the week. The 10 day EMA is a good place for a strong stock to hold a breakout, and we are looking for FFIV to do just that and continue the breakout move with a bit more volume.
Volume: 809.39K Avg Volume: 976.405K
BUY POINT: $65.05 Volume=1.2M Target=$74.95 Stop=$62.95
POSITION: FLK DM - Apr. $65c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ffiv.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/18/2006
CXW (Corrections Corp of America--$45.67; +0.55; optionable): Private prisons
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cxw.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still in the test of the early October gap higher, bouncing some Thursday and Friday. Still looking for a stronger move with strong volume to move in. To recap: Testing a bit deeper last week, but holding above the 50 day EMA (43.97) as it does. Just a further shakeout after the gap higher in early October on strong results; a modest correction.
Volume: 398.5K Avg Volume: 541.786K
BUY POINT: $46.48 Volume=600K Target=$54.85 Stop=$44.78
POSITION: CGY CX - Mar. $43.375c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cxw.html
Play Date: 11/01/2006
GLDN (Golden Telecom--$36.59; +0.33; optionable): Russian wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gldn.html
EARNINGS: 11-8-06
STATUS: Breakout test. A nice doji with tale Friday at the 18 day EMA (36.19) as GLDN looks to have completed this pullback to test that nice breakout and run in October that took GLDN out of its reverse head and shoulders base. Solid action, and now just looking for a rebound on volume to move in. Looks golden.
Volume: 204.987K Avg Volume: 89.721K
BUY POINT: $37.22 Volume=245K Target=$44.45 Stop=$35.88
POSITION: QDV CG - Mar. $35c (58 delta, no OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gldn.html
Play Date: 10/30/2006
QLGC (Qlogic--$20.12; +0.09; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qlgc.html
EARNINGS: Reported 10-24-06
STATUS: Breakout test. A pair of nice doji's on the 18 day EMA (19.99) to end last week on some very low, below average volume. Looks ready to resume the upside move having weathered the selling by making a nice, easy pullback. To recap: Coming back on lower volume as QLGC tests the late October gap higher on strong earnings results. That move took it out of a 6 month cup with handle base it has spent the past week coming back to test. It shows it has the earnings and the accumulation behind it so logically we like this rebound play.
Volume: 1.087M Avg Volume: 2.323MBUY POINT: $20.64 Volume=3M Target=$24.65 Stop=$19.88
POSITION: QLC DD - Apr. $20c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/qlgc.html
Play Date: 11/02/2006
SKX (Skechers USA--$28.67; -0.29; optionable): Footwear
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/skx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-25-06
STATUS: Test breakout. Gapped sharply higher the last week of October as SKX broke out of its 6 month cup with handle base on a strong earnings report. The move took SKX to a new all-time high and this is a great low volume test, coming back in the market selling but on very low volume Thursday and Friday. Looking it to hold here at the 10 day EMA (28.62) to start its move higher.
Volume: 290.5K Avg Volume: 415.674K
BUY POINT: $29.41 Volume=500K Target=$34.95 Stop=$28.48
POSITION: SKX DF - Apr. $30c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/skx.html
Play Date: 10/28/2006
STLD (Steel Dynamics--$59.37; +0.48; optionable): Steel & iron. Splits 2:1 on or about 11-20-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stld.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Another nice doji on top of the 18 day EMA (58.44) as STLD continues the excellent handle formation above near support. All we have to do on this one is let it show us the breakout move. To recap: Testing to form the handle the past week, holding near support as it forms the handle to its 6 month base. Solid upside volume to finish the right side of the pattern and now a nice lower volume fade to form the handle. Did not get much mileage out of the split announcement, but the pattern is solid and STLD can rip off a lot of real estate in a hurry when it gets moving.
Volume: 842.724K Avg Volume: 1.34M
BUY POINT: 60.05; Breakout: $62.22 Volume=2.1M Target=$72.45 Stop=$59.95
POSITION: RQL BL - Feb. $60c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stld.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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