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trade stock, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: ADS; AKAM; BIDU; BRCM; CERN; CRM; CTRP; GES; ICE; LTD; PMTI; SPIL
New Plays:
New Pre-Split Play:
Play Date: 11/07/2006
EAT (Brinker Intl.--$46.53; -0.97; optionable): Casual restaurants. Splits 3:2 on 12-1-06.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eat.html
STATUS: Breakout test. EAT gapped out of an 8 month cup with handle base in late October and has spent the past two weeks working laterally over the 10 day EMA (45.76), bumping up against the top of the range at 48. Showing very good price/volume action in this range with a good volume surge Monday. Money flow is leading higher and we are ready to move in as EAT makes the break from this consolidation.
Volume: 1.441M Avg Volume: 1.343M
BUY POINT: $48.11 Volume=1.5M Target=$55.95 Stop=$44.74
POSITION: EAT DI - Apr. $45c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eat.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ATVI: No split with earnings after the close, but some nice earnings after hours
CMTL: Tentatively forecast 12-5-06
CTSH: Researching the next date.
JCP: Forecast 11-9-06
STT: Tentatively set for mid-December
TECH: Researching date. Announced earnings 10-25-06
UNP: Researching date. Announced earnings 10-19-06
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/07/2006
CMTL (Comtech Telecom--$36.72; +1.76; optionable): Telecom equipment
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 3-9-05 at $36.40. Before that a 3:2 split on 6-18-03 at $30.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmtl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Announced some orders Tuesday and enjoyed a strong day on strong, above average volume. This has taken CMTL to the brink of the breakout from its 11 month base. Set up nicely to make the break and we want to see this strong trade continue as it makes its move.
Volume: 406.724K Avg Volume: 262.139K
BUY POINT: $37.04 Volume=275K Target=$44.45 Stop=$34.88
POSITION: CQH DF - Apr. $35c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmtl.html
Play Date: 11/07/2006
GILD (Gilead Sciences--$69.75; +0.93; optionable): Biotechnology
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 7-28-04 at $58.30
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gild.html
STATUS: Ascending base. GILD enjoyed a good breakout in September, but then crashed back in early October on its acquisition of MYGN. It recovered to the September high and is now working in a 3 week lateral move. Started to bounce and is starting to break to a new all-time high. Needs to see some more volume as it continues on and makes the break.
Volume: 3.305M Avg Volume: 3.783M
BUY POINT: $70.11 Volume=5M Target=$79.90 Stop=$67.78
POSITION: GDQ BN - Feb. $70c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gild.html
Play Date: 11/07/2006
JCI (Johnson Controls--$82.70; +0.88; optionable): Controllers and devices for autos, etc.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 11-18-03 at $105
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jci.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice 5 week handle has formed to its 5 month base, setting JCI up for the breakout and run to a new all-time high. Very strong stock that can run like the wind when it makes its move. Setting up nicely; just has to show us that move.
Volume: 1.08M Avg Volume: 1.135M
BUY POINT: $85.05 Volume=1.7M Target=$97.85 Stop=$81.95
POSITION: JCI DQ - Apr. $85c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jci.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/04/2006
ATVI (Activision--$15.65; -0.05; optionable): Multimedia and graphics software. Forecast 11-6-06. No split after hours but its earnings looking good.
BACKGROUND: Frequent splitter. Announced its last split on 9-28-05 at $19.80 (4:3). Before that a 4:3 split on 2-23-05. Before that a 3:2 split on 2-12-04 at $20.10.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atvi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice test of the Friday gap higher, showing a doji at the 10 day EMA (15.50) Tuesday. After hours earnings were solid and we are looking for ATVI to make the break higher Wednesday. To recap: Almost to the breakout of its 12 month base, showing some very good volume the past two weeks. Strong money flow is leading higher, and looking to move in as ATVI continues higher and shows us the breakout. Games are looking to have a good holiday season.
Volume: 5.041M Avg Volume: 4.284M
BUY POINT: $16.14 Volume=5M Target=$19.38 Stop=$15.18
POSITION: AQV BC - Feb. $15c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/atvi.html
Play Date: 10/26/2006
STT (State Street--$64.10; -0.14; optionable): Regional bank. Announced earnings 10-17-06.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 12-21-00 at $119. Before that a 2:1 split on 2-20-97 at $80
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working laterally in the 5 week handle that is using the 50 day EMA (62.92) as support on the lows. It is taking its time, but it is getting there and is going to show us the move. To recap: A solid 6 month base, part of a larger 4 year pattern, is getting ready to send STT to a breakout and a new all-time high. May be a bit early on any split announcement, but post-2000 splits are at lower prices and STT's sector tends to announce in this range. Regardless, it is a good test of the 50 day EMA in a solid pattern, and we can make good money on a breakout.
Volume: 1.14M Avg Volume: 1.261M
BUY POINT: $64.48 Volume=1.5M Target=$72.95 Stop=$62.48
POSITION: STT BM - Feb. $65c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stt.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/31/2006
STLD (Steel Dynamics--$61.00; -0.20; optionable): Steel & iron. Splits 2:1 on or about 11-20-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stld.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still ready to make the break, just not doing it. Has rallied up to the late October highs the past two sessions but as of yet has not made the break. Volume is up this week so we anticipate the move but has to show it. To recap: Testing to form the handle the past week, holding near support as it forms the handle to its 6 month base. Solid upside volume to finish the right side of the pattern and now a nice lower volume fade to form the handle. Did not get much mileage out of the split announcement, but the pattern is solid and STLD can rip off a lot of real estate in a hurry when it gets moving.
Volume: 1.217M Avg Volume: 1.338M
BUY POINT: Breakout: $62.22 Volume=2.1M Target=$72.45 Stop=$59.95
POSITION: RQL BL - Feb. $60c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stld.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/04/2006
NBL (Noble Energy--$48.62; -0.45; optionable): Oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nbl.html
EARNINGS: Announced 11-1-06
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Continues working on the handle with some lower volume to start this week as it tests the 10 day EMA. Still in the handle, still ready to make the move, but yet to show it yet. Nice, but you know about those pretty pictures: that is all they are until they deliver.
Volume: 1.086M Avg Volume: 1.41M
BUY POINT: $49.45 Volume=1.7M Target=$56.95 Stop=$47.35
POSITION: NBL BJ - Feb. $50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nbl.html
Play Date: 10/30/2006
QLGC (Qlogic--$20.60; +0.41; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qlgc.html
EARNINGS: Reported 10-24-06
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume was up along with price but QLGC struggled to put the break in bed. Still solid, still ready to move in. To recap: Coming back on lower volume as QLGC tests the late October gap higher on strong earnings results. That move took it out of a 6 month cup with handle base it has spent the past week coming back to test. It shows it has the earnings and the accumulation behind it so logically we like this rebound play.
Volume: 2.967M Avg Volume: 2.347M
BUY POINT: $20.64 Volume=3M Target=$24.65 Stop=$19.88
POSITION: QLC DD - Apr. $20c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qlgc.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/02/2006
AMT (American Tower--$37.62; +0.23; optionable): Cell towers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amt.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. AMT is still working laterally, consolidating the modest September and October move higher out of a 4 month cup with handle base. It has formed a short double bottom with handle base over the 50 day EMA (36.24), making a higher low at the 10 day EMA (36.93) and looking for a new breakout. Volume is rising; need to see it really jump higher with the price break.
Volume: 2.013M Avg Volume: 2.182M
BUY POINT: $37.75 Volume=3M Target=$43.95 Stop=$35.88
POSITION: AMT DU - Apr. $37.50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amt.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
stock split
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