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yahoo stock, us stock market
Begin Part 2 of 2
Weekly Economic Calendar (All times Eastern). The figures are the consensus expectations, not ours.
1-2-02
Auto Sales, December (8:30): 6.1M versus 6.3M prior.
Truck Sales, December (8:30): 7.8M versus 8.2M prior.
NAPM Index, December (10:00): 45.8 versus 44.5 prior.
1-3-02
Initial Claims; December (8:30):
Construction Spending; December (10:00): -0.1% versus 1.9% prior.
1-4-02
Nonfarm Payrolls; December (8:30): -175K versus -331K prior.
Unemployment Rate; December (8:30): 5.8% versus 5.7% prior.
Hourly Earnings; December (8:30): 0.3% versus 0.3% prior.
Average Workweek; December (8:30): 34.1 versus 34.1 prior.
NAPM Services; December (10:00): 50.3 versus 51.3 prior.
SUBSCRIBER QUESTIONS
Q: When you talk about buying aggressive point like on MCTR 8.40, is this at the 18 day MVA and is the next [buy point] at 9.57 a break above the 200 day SMA? Also you mention that you wait to buy usually after the first hour of trading; is this a good rule to follow, and do you ever buy pre-market?
A: there is not any set 18 day MVA or 200 day MVA label on buy points that are called aggressive or breakout. When we use the aggressive label, the stock is usually making a test of a recent move and is starting up off of the support; it is more aggressive because the stock still must clear that recent high to make a really good move. With MCTR it had made a strong move in early December and then pulled back to the 18 day MVA, bounced higher and then moved laterally until it ran into that level again and bounced on very strong volume Thursday (when market volume overall was still low). It was aggressive because it was still below the December high (the high point in the handle), and a move can fail before it ever breaks out. Still we liked it enough that we wanted to catch the bounce up off the 18 day MVA. The next buy point was over the handle high, the true breakout of the pattern that started back in January of 2001.
We usually do wait to buy into positions until a half hour to hour has passed unless we get some news that we really like (e.g., company raises its owns earnings outlook). If a stock gaps up or down on that news, we still won't go out chasing it, but will wait and let it come back to us. That is usually why we wait. The first half hour to hour market makers, specialists, buyers, and sellers are in a tug of war to see what the direction for a stock and the overall market will be. Strong opens usually lead to a pullback to at least test the move, and weak opens give rise to good moves a bit later. We don't want to be the guinea pigs in setting the price for the day. Let it get a bit established and then move in when we see the direction. As for buying pre-market, we will do that when we have the kind of news we want and can still get what we feel is a reasonable price. The problem with the pre-market is wider spreads and fewer participants, so it is hard to get a real handle on what the stock will do; if the news is good, the stock may be up $2, but then pullback to test that move in the first half hour to hour of the regular session. Again, we are acting as the guinea pig.
TEAM TRADES
We did partake in an aggressive position on MCTR Friday, letting it rally up early over the buy point of 8.40 (it ran quickly to 8.55), and then picking it up after it pulled back to 8.42 and tested that move. We still waited a bit to go after it, and it ran 8.62 but then pulled back to 8.45 again. At that point when it started to move up again we were very interested and went after the stock. It rallied to 8.70 and we were feeling as if we got a good entry point: tested the 8.40 entry point and after we got in, rallied to a session high. It tested one more time, however, in an up and down session, but managed to close at 8.55 on the official count. Now we did not take full positions because it was ahead of the breakout; when it makes its breakout move we will then add to or complete our buy on the position. On aggressive positions we rarely put in all of our allocated funds at that time.
XRAY was on the SSR (as were many good movers Friday), and is a pre-split that we saw start to make a move off of the 18 day MVA Thursday. That got us very interested, and the stock was moving early. On this one we were waiting for it to clear its recent high and the excellent volume it was showing was a nice bonus for a pre-split move. It hit the target at 10:00 CT, but we held off to let it test the move as it had made a strong run to that point. It pulled back, tested the prior high that session, and started back up. We entered at that point as volume was very solid already. Looking for a move up to 54, and the heavy volume on the otherwise lazy session was great.
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information. A "prior high" refers to the high at the start of a base.
For conserving space on listings of stop losses, the symbol (7%) indicates that the stop is 7% below the buy point.
Good Movers: VNWK broke out! KSS made a solid move up in its handle Friday and looks like it is moving into a breakout!
Stocks/Indexes from the Thursday report:
SEBL: A small move up on decreased volume. Will likely pull back to the 10 day MVA again, if not the 18 day MVA.
MCTR: Added to Thursday's move up in the handle, but volume fell back. Still looking good though it may fall back to test 8.00-8.40.
NABI: Stronger volume and another move up as the stock continued the 10 day MVA bounce; looks like it is losing some steam.
KSWS: Couldn't hold the 18 day MVA and slipped back below with volume higher. Remember the support at 32, if the stock falls back that far.
NTAP: Still like this cup with handle; popped higher with rising volume, showing a doji. May consolidate further in the handle before making a strong move up.
TARO: Sold back to the 50 day MVA. Volume higher and nearly at average levels. Want to see the stock hold this support.
Continuing plays:
BZH: Made the aggressive buy point of 73.10 in the cup with handle. Pivot point (breakout) is 77.23 on volume in the range of 422,000.
CFLO: Still looks good in the ascending wedge (12-20)
EXTR: Remains in good position for the put play (12-15).
KEA: Still tight in the handle and holding the 18 day MVA. Nice!
IBI: Just moved over the down trendline Friday! Hit the cup with handle buy point (15) Thursday, but even though it moved below that price Friday, the close above the resistance is bullish.
INRG: CEO resigned, the stock sold off, trashing a good pattern.
KSS: Making its move in the handle! Volume higher and the stock popped up; see the 12-26 report for details (buy point 71.98).
SGI: Moved below the 18 day MVA on rising volume (still below average).
VNWK: Broke out! Remains a buy on the move up to 4.56.
SUBSCRIBER'S CHOICE
RESP (Respironics--$35.45; +0.43; optionable): Health Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/resp.html
STATUS: Trying to form a handle to a 3-month cup. RESP sold back to the 10 day MVA three days ago, but bounce back above support at 35. The stock retested the support the rest of the week, and Friday made a nice move up with volume rising (196,200; avg. 294,000). The stock tapped resistance at the 36 level before closing lower, but remains in good position for a move back up and breakout over the December (handle) high at 36.56. Money flow and buying look good. Target: 44
BUY POINT: Breakout: 36.69 on volume of 441,000 or better. Stop: 34.12 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or April $30 or $35 calls to buy (SBU DF or DG).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/resp.html
Best Plays:
1) TBCC: Breaking out of an ascending wedge.
2) ASKJ: Testing the breakout and looks ready to move up.
3) MYL: In another lateral consolidation.
4) BRCM: Potential covered call play.
New:
TBCC (Tbc Corp--$12.83; +0.88; no options): Auto Parts Wholesale
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tbcc.html
STATUS: Broke out of an ascending wedge-type pattern on big volume Friday (218,100; avg. 73,000). Buy point was 12.43, leaving the stock a continued buy on this move up to 13.05, though the strong move can carry TBCC higher. The large pattern formed after the stock trended up from the December 2000 lows near 4 and topped this year at the July high at 11.94 (a pattern of almost 5 months). Shows very strong money flow, and relative strength is breaking out. Target: 15
BUY POINT: Over 12.85 on continued strong volume. Stop: 11.95 (7%)
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/tbcc.html
ASKJ (Ask Jeeves--$3.41; +0.13; no options): Business Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/askj.html
STATUS: ASKJ is coming off the bottom of a base of just over 2 years in length (low near $0.75). Volume in the last week has dropped off significantly from previous strong levels when ASKJ shot up on a breakout from a 6-month cup with handle. However, volume was higher Friday (291,600; avg. 393,000) when the stock moved up from support at the 10 day MVA in the test of the breakout. Look for a continued move up, watching initial potential resistance at the 3.50 range. ASKJ hit a December high way out at 4.20, which can pose some resistance, but that is still ahead. Outstanding money flow and buying. Initial target: 5
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 3.60 on average or higher volume. Stop: 3.35 (7%)
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/askj.html
A Put Play:
JBL (Jabil Circuit--$23.20; +0.84; optionable): Electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jbl.html
STATUS: JBL gapped down sharply December 20 after breaking support of its 50 day MVA, when the company reported less than expected earnings and lowered forecasts for next year. Since, the stock has moved up in a weak manner, with volume rising last week but remaining well below average (Friday, 1.4 million; avg. 2 million). JBL can move up from here, but look for resistance at 24.50 to the 50 day MVA at 25; we will consider taking downside positions on a move down from there (if on rising volume). Initial target will be at the 18-17 range.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: On a failed attempt to take out 24.50.
POSITION: February $30 puts to buy (JBL NF).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/jbl.html
PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: New Leaders (new list): ACS, NVDA, DGX, FRX, LLL, CACI, AJG, KRON, MIK, BMET, APPB, LOW, IDPH, TARO, MYL, IGT, VRSN
MYL (Mylan Labs--$37.91; +0.52; optionable): Generic Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/myl.html
STATUS: MYL is moving laterally once again after jumping up out of its last lateral consolidation in early December. It is resting just above its prior high, and Friday started to move up on much better volume. Volume has been falling throughout, but began building up and by Friday shot higher to 891,900 as noted (avg. 1.1 million). With that, MYL began a small move up, which could be the start of the next breakout. Money flow is improving and buying looks good. Target: 44
BUY POINT: 38.25 on volume of 1.2 million or higher. Stop: 35.57 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or April $35 calls to buy (MYL DG).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/myl.html
ACS: Strong volume and a pop up of almost 2 points, to hit another new all-time closing high. The stock has been up for 5 days in a row with volume slowly climbing. Looking good, but as it is above its upper channel, it will pull back at some point. The further it runs up on this move, the further it will fall back inside its channel. We do not want to lose the gain and may sell some positions. We will also look at selling some at or in the money covered calls (January, maybe February) on the session we see it run up and then reverse and will close well off of the high for the session.
IDPH: Closed just under our buy point of 73.45 as the stock moved up from the 10 day MVA on rising volume. In an ascending wedge at the upper right side of the 7-month base.
BMET: Has formed a large ascending wedge/ pennant and can move up to the down trendline at 32.67 (closed at 31.70). Volume was up sharply and BMET may try to make the move, though it tapped resistance at 32 and pulled back slightly.
AJG: Just below the 50 day MVA again with volume rising in what is a descending wedge. We will see if it makes the drop to 34 then below; still watching it for a put play down to 31-30.
DGX: After the nice run this month (and the break over its down trendline), DGX pulled back for one day (Thursday) then on rising volume began moving up again Friday. Buy point is 71.92, over the new December high at 71.79. If it breaks out on strong volume after Friday's move up, it will have been a very short handle. We'd prefer a pullback to 69.50 or so first.
MIK: Making a move off the 10 day MVA; this is the stock's third bounce from that support after testing back to the 18 day MVA; may offer another move up here. December high is 33.65, Friday's intraday high.
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: Here is the new portfolio list: BBBY, EPIQ, KKD, MMS, NDN, SRCL, CPRT, BJ, EBAY, THQI, KG.
KKD: Tried to add to Thursday's move but after hitting a new high at 46.90, pulled back to close with a tombstone doji. At the top of the run, that signals a possible move down, and we have been looking for the stock to pull back. We will look at selling January or February 45 calls for the pullback to 42.50.
BBBY: Up on rising volume and approaching the December high (35.70). Closed at 34.55.
SRCL: Sold back down to the 18 day MVA. May settle out for a day or so but if it holds the support will be ready to try another move off the support. Don't like the higher volume, and if it falls below the 18 day MVA, we will sell some $60 calls on the move.
BJ: Did not participate in last week's retail rally (such that it was), but is holding above the 18 day MVA on low volume. We are watching for a continued move up in the right leg of the large double bottom pattern.
EBAY: Made the move we were looking for, rising from support (18 day MVA) with volume up slightly (still well below average). Moving up in the handle to its 6-month cup.
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: New portfolio as selected by the subscribers. Some of these stocks are still struggling to move higher in their bases, and will likely continue to trade in close ranges just like the market. We'll be ready to catch them when they are ready to move. The new list: BRCM, CHKP, AMAT, JNJ, MSFT, AOL, HGSI, BUD, PXLW.
Old members: BRCM, CHKP, CSCO, EMLX, IDTI, INTC, JDSU, MVSN, NT, PWER, SUNW, VTSS
BRCM (Broadcom--$43.00; +0.95; optionable): Semiconductor: Integrated Circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcm.html
STATUS: BRCM moved back over the 18 day MVA (42.34) but volume was below average most of the week (by Friday was at 6.7 million; avg. 15.2 million). The stock moved up all week and at the top of the run showed a hammer doji, a signal for a possible move back down. BRCM can head back down for a move to the 200 day MVA (36.83 currently); it will have to cross back below 2 support levels, the 18 day and the 50 day MVA (the latter at 41.05), but if the market gives no clear upside push, we can get the move. Looking at selling covered calls on long-term stockholdings on a move back down, buying the calls back once they hit support at the 200 day MVA. At the close Friday the February $40 calls were selling for $7.10 with a delta of 0.66. For a 6-point move, they should be worth about $11 upon hitting the 200 day MVA, for a gain of around 15%.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 42 on rising volume (preferably) for the move down.
POSITION: February $40 calls to sell (RCQ BH).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/brcm.html
CHKP: Bouncing up and down in a tight range with lower support at 40 and resistance just under 42. Volume is very low, so the stock in a tech rally is in good position for a move up. Showed a tight doji just above the 18 day MVA. The 200 day MVA is ahead at 44 (CHKP closed at 41.05). Buy point is on a move over that resistance, with aggressive entries on a strong move over 42.
MSFT: Also consolidating above support on low volume. In a kind of ascending wedge pattern (it cleared the overall pattern several days ago before pulling back last week), and currently holding support at the 18 day MVA.
BUD: Tapped at the 10 day MVA for the second day in its test of the breakout. Volume was back below average. Can hold here for another day or two before heading back up.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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yahoo stock
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