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us stock market, stock watch
Begin Part 4 of 4
PRE-SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:
Watchlist:
LIZ ($49.80; 0.00): Splits 2:1 effective 1-17-02. Is nearing pre-attack levels, hitting up against the lower end of its August range twice (52, in November & early December) as it formed a narrow pennant. It is descending a bit in the pattern, so we could see it visit the 50 day (49). From here or there, we are looking for increased strength to carry it out of the pattern. The aggressive can look at a move over 50.64, with stock and/or April $45 calls to buy (under 100 open interest; February has no open). The play over recent highs is 52.12, with stock and/or April $50 calls to buy (LIZ DJ).
CPRT ($37.16; -1.06): Split 3:2 effective 1-22-02. Made a nice move up earlier this week, but it stalled at the resistance of its upper channel trendline drawn from its December tops (38.75). It sold back to the 10 day (37) Friday as volume picked up to 659,500 (average 722,800), stopping us out of short-term pre-split positions. Looking to see if support holds the 18 day (36.12) to set up another move.
FLO ($39.45; +0.23): Splits 3:2 on 1-3-02. Unable to get back over its 50 day (39.87), and just not showing much of anything. The optimistic can look for a final pre-split run, with the aggressive play a solid move over 40, with stock and/or February $35 calls to buy (FLO BG - low open interest).
Plays:
VAR (Varian Medical--$71.25; +2.00; optionable): Scientific & Technical Instruments. Splits 2:1 effective 1-16-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/liz.html
STATUS: Topped at 76.50 in late November before tumbling back through its 50 and 200 day MVA's, but has fought back over those levels (68.32 & 67.65, respectively) from lows at 65. We saw a big run up from that level mid-week, followed by some lower volume profit taking and then another push up Friday. Volume was much weaker at 137,000 (average 239,500), but pre-splits are about momentum. VAR pulled off the intraday high of 71.95 to close, so the momentum could be gone for the moment; we will see if it can hold on or if we get another test of the 68-69 range. From here or after proving it can hold support, we are still targeting the recent high.
PLAY: From here: A move over 72. Stop: 68. Pullback: After a pullback holds support at 68-69, a move back over 70. Stop: 67. With either play, stock and/or February $65 calls to buy (VAR BM - under 100 open interest).
CHS (Chico's Fas--$40.24; -.012; optionable): Retail apparel. Splits 3:2 effective 1-19-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chs.html
STATUS: Broke out from a double bottom with handle last week, hitting a high on the move of 42 Monday. It made a rather strong dip Wednesday, but successfully held the 10 day MVA (39.34; over the prior breakout point of 38.30). Volume was lower than on the selling, and catching support on the test is key. We are looking to see if can continue to hold the 10 day, as it did Friday with a tight doji on falling volume of 381,000 (average 666,100), and are looking for a strong move back up as we go toward the split. Target: 45.
PLAY: After holding the 10 day, a move back over 41 with stock and/or February $35 calls to buy (CHS BG). Stop: 38.50.
SYMC (Symantec--$67.42; +2.41; optionable): Splits 2:1 effective February 1.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/symc.html
STATUS: Was in a nice handle to its double bottom base, but took a hit last week to take it below what had been strong support at the 18 day MVA (65.93; 10 day at 66.19). After struggling below that resistance for a few sessions, it eased back over Friday, as volume stayed at a low level (1.07 million; average 2.63 million). The breach of the support-turned-resistance is good action, so we will see if it can hold over the 10 day and continue to give us a move. The recent high is 71, and we will watch how it handles that carefully.
PLAY: Aggressive: Over 67.75 on increased volume, with stock and/or February $65 calls to buy (SYQ BM - very low open interest).
XRAY (Dentsply Internat--$50.75; +1.38; optionable): Medical instruments. Splits 3:2 effective February 1.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
STATUS: Great move Friday! XRAY made a big move last week, hitting a new all-time high of 51.14, but quickly pulled back to support at the 10 day MVA (49.05). We were looking for a strong move out of the solid consolidation and we got it Friday, as the sharply increased volume of 741,300 (average 227,500) carried the stock up toward the high. Looking for the upward momentum to continue. Strong money flow and buying. Target: If it can take out the high, 57.
PLAY: From here: A move over the high: 51.26 on above average volume. Stop: 48. Stock and/or January $45 calls to buy (XAQ AI).
PAST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:
Watchlist:
LUV ($18.75; -0.04): Little change Friday. LUV is trying to hold on in a handle to its cup pattern, tapping close to its 50 day MVA (18.13) in recent intraday moves, but managing to close in the range of it short-term MVA's (10 day at 18.80). We will see if it can hold the 50 day and set something up.
CONTINUING CANDIDATES REMAINING PLAYS: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date.
Watchlist:
APPB ($34.72; -0.20): Has pulled back from the recent high of 36.89 and is trying to hold support the 18 day (34.92) as volume is dropping (down Friday to 239,000, average 415,400). It closed just below that level Friday, but is holding over the former pivot (34.04), so we are still looking for a bounce from here. On a move to 35.62 on above average volume we are looking at stock and/or February $30 calls to buy (AQB BF).
GTK ($45.45; -0.20): After its recent bounce from the 50 day (then 42, now 43) GTK hit 46.50 and retreated. Now it is moving into something of a pennant pattern, currently holding the short-term MVA's (18 day at 44.86), and hitting resistance at 46 as it moves on rather erratic volume (down sharply Friday to 197,100, average 410,600). Still looking for a solid move through resistance and if we get it, we like the odds of a new high over 47.50.
IGT ($70.00; -1.03): The breakout may have run its course for now. IGT gapped up and reversed Friday as volume increased to 2.10 million (average 1.19 million). We will heed this topping sign and watch for further selling as a trigger to protect short-term positions. Looking for the 10 or 18 day MVA's (67.94 & 66.34) to provide support, and after it proves it can hold on, we can look for a solid move up from there.
SLM ($83.50; +1.70): Volume fell to 392,200 (average 589,100) as we got a weak bounce Friday. SLM cleared the short-term MVA's (10 day recent resistance at 82.79) but could not hold a move through the 50 day at 83.71. For existing positions we are carefully watching to see how it handles the 50 day - with the low volume push we are looking for this move to quickly stall.
STJ ($76.54; -0.04): After quickly pulling back from the recent weak breakout, STJ is still holding the 10 day (76.08). If it can continue to hold here, it could set up for amove over 78.07 on above average volume (down Friday to 209,900, average 701,500), with stock and/or April $75 calls to buy (STJ DO).
THC ($58.64; +0.14): Gapped up and over the recent resistance at the short-term and 50 day MVA's (58.70) to open Friday, but couldn't hold the high of 59.50 and fell back to the 50 day to close. With the failure of this weak attempt (volume down to 1.22 million, average 1.89 million), we could still get a put play, but it is an aggressive play. On a move down through 58 on volume of 2.5 million, January $65 puts to buy (THC MM). Targeting 54.
Plays:
BBY (Best Buy--$74.63; +0.73; optionable): Did not get the announcement with earnings, but it made a great move on the good numbers.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bby.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 2-22-99 with a board meeting. The stock price was $95. Prior to that announced a 2:1 split on 4-24-98 with a board meeting. The stock price was $71. The annual shareholder meeting was 6-26-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: With the positive earnings announcement, BBY made a nice bounce from the 65 level and enjoyed a good run up to 74.92. It then pulled back and began gradually drifting up the 10 day MVA (72.40) on below average volume. Friday it reached up to toward our buy point, but the slightly increased volume of 2.02 million was much lower than we wanted to see (over the average of 3.43 million). Sill looking for a solid move from here over the recent high - we do not want to see the stock succumb to a double top pattern and drop. With BBY's numbers we will look for continued strength after a rest.
BUY POINT: 75.12 on volume of 4 million. Stop: 69.79 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or March $70 calls to buy (BBY CN).
BBBY (Bed, Bath & Beyond--$34.55; +0.88; optionable): Forecast to announce a split during the market hours on 12-20-01 in conjunction with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbby.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 7-13-00 with a board meeting. The stock price of $39. The shareholder meeting was on 6-28-01 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: The stock is trying to make it back up toward its recent breakout high (35.70), but low volume is hindering the moves. BBBY pushed up from the late October lows (near 24) to a high of 35.70 earlier this month, quickly fell back through the short-term MVA's and has crawled back up through them (18 day at 32.80), fighting a long-term up trendline at 34. Friday's move up was supported by volume that remained quite low at 2.5 million (average 3.89 million), which is not the strength we were looking for. We will see if BBBY can hold a test of the 18 day and give us a solid move over the recent high. Target: 41.
BUY POINT: Over 35.70 on above average volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or February $30 calls to buy (BHQ BF).
TJX (TJX Companies--$40.04; +0.66; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 12-5-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The company will not confirm this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the board meeting.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tjx.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced split on 4-8-98 with a board meeting. The stock price was $43. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-5-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Continued up Friday, extending the move it started the previous sessions. Volume was up again on the move, coming in at 1.85 million (average 1.27 million), as TJX has made a clean break to a new high after having pulled back several times in recent sessions from intraday highs just over 39. Although a strong move that we are riding toward a target of 46, TJX has some possible resistance from its upper channel trendline (drawn connecting closing highs from March 2000), at 41. Consequently, new positions from here are aggressive.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move over 40.30 on continued strong volume (technically a buy up to 41.32 on this move). Stop: 38.
POSITION: Stock and/or April $35 calls to buy (TJX DG).
POST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:
Watchlist:
CHBS ($33.99; +0.48): Split 3:2 effective 12-13-01. Gave us a very nice breakout to a high of 34.45, pulled back to 32 and began moving right back up Thursday, initially on strong volume that slowed considerably Friday (down to 232,700, average 381,200). Needs to settle down a bit before we look at new positions, and we will look with concern on a drop through the 10 day (31.63).
SASR ($31.90; -0.54): Split 3:2 on 12-21-01. Made a nice pre-split run that continued after the split, but gave nearly half of those gains Friday as volume shot up to 59,600 (average 14,400). It tested down to 31 (10 day at 31.32) before pulling up to close, so we will watch carefully with any existing positions not stopped out to see if the stock will hold up.
Plays:
CACI (Caci International--$42.32; +0.67; optionable): Technical Services. Split 2:1 effective 12-7-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/caci.html
STATUS: Closed the holiday week with a doji near the top of the recent trading range (42.75) as volume fell slightly but remained strong and above average at 567,400 (average 386,500). We are still targeting 48 with current positions, but this doji could signal a dip back. The stock has held up pretty well post-split, foundering a bit but finding support twice this month at 37.50; if we get a drop we will see if it can hold the 10 day MVA (40.16) this time rather than dipping all the way back to the base of the range.
PLAY: 43.32 on volume of 600,000 or better, with stock and/or March $40 calls to buy (KFQ CH). Stop: 40.29.
CBH (Commerce Bancorp--$39.21; +0.95; optionable): Split 2:1 effective 12-19-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbh.html
STATUS: CBH continues to hold on post split, moving in a something of an ascending wedge pattern, with highs near 39.50 and making higher lows. The stock closed Friday with a strong test of the 18 day MVA (38.44; over the last low, which held the November highs at 38) before pulling up to close with a loose 'hanging man' doji near the top of the range on sharply increased volume of 616,400 (average 154,400). The candlestick indicates a topping sign - we will see if CBH can continue the pattern of higher lows and look for the short-term MVA's to provide support for a bounce up. After proving it can hold on, we are looking for a strong move over the recent high of 39.49. Good money flow. Target on the breakout: 45.
PLAY: After a lower volume pullback holds support, the buy point is 39.61 on increased above average volume (minimum 350,000), with stock and/or March $35 calls to buy (CBH CG - low open interest).
FMBI (First Midwest Bancorp--$29.07; +0.03; no options): Split 5:4 effective 12-17-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fmbi.html
STATUS: Following the nice breakout on the split, FMBI is still looking pretty solid here overall (if somewhat volatile with some wide intraday ranges) and shaping up into something of an ascending wedge that is holding the 10 day MVA (28.70) and the former pivot (28.20) at the closing lows. Friday it tested the 10 day again before pulling up to close with a loose doji near the top of the recent range as volume increased considerably to 162,500 (average 91,200). With this candlestick, we may see another test of the 10 day, but we are looking for a move up and out of the recent range. Target: 34.
PLAY: Aggressive: 29.36 on continued strong volume, with stock. Stop: 27.30
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock watch
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