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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good Movers: BIDU; CEPH; CTRP; HOC; IO
Strong plays:
1) PFWD: Tested and now breaking higher on rising trade
2) UCTT: Volume is solid as it works laterally in a nice breakout test.
3) MRVC: Just about ready in its lateral move.
4) MTW: Excellent action in its lateral move at the 10 day EMA
5) SKX: Volume jumped as SKX is showing signs of life in moving off the 10 day EMA.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 11/08/2006
PFWD (Phase Forward--$14.04; +0.50; optionable): Integrated enterprise-level software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfwd.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Has been a bit volatile, but it won't quit, and has now set itself up in a nice base with a breakout and test under its belt. PFWD gapped higher two weeks back on strong earnings, moving out of a 21 month cup with handle base. Strong volume on the move and a test that came all the way back to fill the gap and then immediately recovered. Nice breakout to a new high and volume was up Wednesday as PFWD continued higher, resuming the breakout move. Ready to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 240.654K Avg Volume: 167.695K
BUY POINT: $14.24 Volume=252K Target=$17.00 Stop=$13.24
POSITION: UTO DC - Apr. $15c (55 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pfwd.html
Play Date: 11/08/2006
TSRA (Tessera Technologies--$37.05; -0.53; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsra.html
STATUS: Test breakout. TSRA broke out from an 8 month reverse head and shoulders base in October but immediately came back to test. We saw it on that breakout, but then it turned back and gave it up. It managed to hold the 50 day EMA (34.31) and rebounded on some strong volume to start November. It has regained the breakout and is now easing back some in a next test. It may come on back to the 10 day EMA (36.12) before it continues the move, but want to be ready if it turns back up from here. Solid leader, one of the tops in its sector.
Volume: 917.86K Avg Volume: 667.414K
BUY POINT: $37.48 Volume=1M Target=$44.95 Stop=$35.95
POSITION: TJQ CG - Mar. $35c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tsra.html
Play Date: 11/08/2006
UCTT (Ultra Clean Holdings--$13.12; +0.12; no options): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uctt.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. UCTT broke out in mid-September from a 7.5 month base. It came back to test, holding the 50 day EMA (11.40) and then starting its breakout run up the 18 day EMA (12.58). This is its second test of this near support, and a strong breakout typically yields 4 to 5 such bounces and tests. That leaves plenty of upside for UCTT on this move once it finishes this two week lateral consolidation. A new issue in Q1 of 2004, this breakout and run is its best thus far. Strong money flow and ready to make the next break higher on this breakout run.
Volume: 571.951K Avg Volume: 403.168K
BUY POINT: $13.42 Volume=600K Target=$16.21 Stop=$12.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/uctt.html
Play Date: 11/08/2006
WMI (Waste Management--$38.28; +0.29; optionable): Waste management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wmi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. WMI is making the breakout on strong, above average volume from its 6 month base, ready to move to a 6 year high. Solid pattern and the start of a nice move. If it can continue on some strong volume we are ready to move in.
Volume: 3.726M Avg Volume: 2.001M
BUY POINT: $38.55 Volume=2M Target=$44.45 Stop=$37.42
POSITION: WMI DU - Apr. $37.50c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wmi.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/04/2006
CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill--$57.68; -0.40; optionable): Casual restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-31-06
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working on that handle as CMG sets up the breakout. Making a higher low at the 18 day EMA and getting close. To recap: A new issue in January, the current 6 month base is its first real consolidation. After earnings it gapped lower to the 18 day EMA Thursday and Friday to finish the week, showing a pair of dojis on the candlestick chart at that point. Looking for it to regroup at this level and then show us the breakout move.
Volume: 543.1K Avg Volume: 976.227K
BUY POINT: $57.65 Volume=1.4M Target=$66.98 Stop=$55.45
POSITION: CMG CK - Mar. $55c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cmg.html
Play Date: 10/28/2006
LH (Laboratory Corp.--$68.14; -0.32; optionable): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lh.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Showing signs it is close to the next move, but not quite showing the breakout yet. Testing the 18 day EMA (67.70) on the low and rebounded for a modest loss. Good shakeout action in the handle to its 11 week base that is ready to take it to a new high.
Volume: 993.8K Avg Volume: 1.156M
BUY POINT: $68.80 Volume=1.5M Target=$78.75 Stop=$67.22
POSITION: LH BB - Feb. $67.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lh.html
Play Date: 11/04/2006
MRVC (MRV Communications--$3.36; -0.06; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrvc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-25-06
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still testing, holding the 10 day EMA (3.33) on below average volume, MRVC is set up well to show the breakout move. Just letting it test and then bounce. To recap: Gapped higher on the earnings, rallying to 3.50 on the move. It was not immune from last week's selling, however, but it faded to test with some style, filling the gap on Thursday and then rebounding Friday on rising volume. Money flow is rallying higher ahead of price, and that looks as if it is going to pull MRVC to a breakout from its 8 month base.
Volume: 1.036M Avg Volume: 1.325M
BUY POINT: $3.49 Volume=2M Target=$4.32 Stop=$3.23
POSITION: MQU CZ - Mar. $2.50c (62 delta, 75 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mrvc.html
Play Date: 11/02/2006
MTW (Manitowoc--$54.51; +1.32; optionable): Farm and construction machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtw.html
EARNINGS: announced 10-24-06
STATUS: Test breakout. Still in a nice lateral move over the 10 day EMA (53.20) on low volume, consolidating the sharp gap higher in late October. Excellent set up for the breakout move. To recap: Nice gap higher in late October on earnings that took MTW out of its 6 month cup with handle base. It tapped the May high in the base on the moved and faded back to test this week, holding the 10 day EMA on low, below average volume. Solid money flow continues higher, and we are looking for MTW to follow it back up after this breakout. Solid stock with some of the best earnings growth rates in the market.
Volume: 672.8K Avg Volume: 825.655K
BUY POINT: $55.44 Volume=1.3M Target=$66.48 Stop=$52.44
POSITION: MTW CK - Mar. $55c (48 delta, 61 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mtw.html
Play Date: 11/02/2006
SKX (Skechers USA--$29.12; +0.35; optionable): Footwear
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/skx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-25-06
STATUS: Test breakout. Volume jumped well above average Wednesday as SKX bounced modestly off the 10 day EMA (28.75), closing modestly off its intraday high. Looks ready to make the move, but it was not quite enough Wednesday. To recap: Gapped sharply higher the last week of October as SKX broke out of its 6 month cup with handle base on a strong earnings report. The move took SKX to a new all-time high and this is a great low volume test, coming back in the market selling but on very low volume Thursday and Friday. Looking it to hold here at the 10 day EMA to start its move higher.
Volume: 710.5K Avg Volume: 403.705K
BUY POINT: $29.41 Volume=500K Target=$34.95 Stop=$28.48
POSITION: SKX DF - Apr. $30c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/skx.html
Play Date: 10/28/2006
STLD (Steel Dynamics--$60.43; -0.57; optionable): Steel & iron. Splits 2:1 on or about 11-20-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stld.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still in the handle, setting up nicely in its pattern, holding the 10 day EMA (60.06) as it does. May be a bit boring, but when it moves we don't think it will remain that way. To recap: Testing to form the handle the past week, holding near support as it forms the handle to its 6 month base. Solid upside volume to finish the right side of the pattern and now a nice lower volume fade to form the handle. Did not get much mileage out of the split announcement, but the pattern is solid and STLD can rip off a lot of real estate in a hurry when it gets moving.
Volume: 1.08M Avg Volume: 1.337M
BUY POINT: Breakout: $62.22 Volume=2.1M Target=$72.45 Stop=$59.95
POSITION: RQL BL - Feb. $60c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stld.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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