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trading system, stock trading system
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good Movers: EZPW; FFIV; NUE; NYX
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 11/09/2006
HMSY (HMS Holdings--$13.95; -0.05; no options): Cost containment services for government healthcare programs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hmsy.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Exploded higher to start the month on good earnings news, breaking out from an 8 week cup with handle base. It has come back the past week on lower volume to test, holding the 18 day EMA (13.94) with a big doji on Thursday. Volume jumped as it tested lower and recovered, an indication the buyers came back in at this key near term support. Looking for it to resume the upside breakout move and send it to a new 11 year high.
Volume: 315.728K Avg Volume: 244.38K
BUY POINT: $14.55 Volume=331K Target=$17.65 Stop=$13.53
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hmsy.html
Play Date: 11/09/2006
LAZ (Lazard Ltd.--$42.95; -0.62; optionable): Asset management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/laz.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong volume to start the month as LAZ rallied on earnings and a nice dividend. It has come back the past three sessions on very low volume, forming the handle to this nice 7 month base. Excellent 'first' base (a new issue in May 2005) is setting up a strong breakout. Nice action.
Volume: 263.6K Avg Volume: 370.002K
BUY POINT: $44.12 Volume=555K Target=$51.95 Stop=$42.22
POSITION: LAZ CH - Mar. $40c (64 delta) or LAZ CI - Mar. $45c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/laz.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/08/2006
PFWD (Phase Forward--$14.19; +0.15; optionable): Integrated enterprise-level software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfwd.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Edged higher Thursday on continued strong, above average volume, but not able to really stretch the Wednesday move. Still solid and still ready to move in. To recap: Has been a bit volatile, but it won't quit, and has now set itself up in a nice base with a breakout and test under its belt. PFWD gapped higher two weeks back on strong earnings, moving out of a 21 month cup with handle base. Strong volume on the move and a test that came all the way back to fill the gap and then immediately recovered. Nice breakout to a new high and volume was up Wednesday as PFWD continued higher, resuming the breakout move. Ready to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 283.191K Avg Volume: 169.667K
BUY POINT: $14.24 Volume=252K Target=$17.00 Stop=$13.24
POSITION: UTO DC - Apr. $15c (55 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pfwd.html
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
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http://www.technicaltraders.com/ttr/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ADS 10/26 Test BO 60.50 -0.75 61.17 69.95 680K 1.3M 59.11
Current. Ease back on low volume holding just above the 10 day MVA. Still in good shape.
AKAM 10/21 Test 50 48.02 -2.62 47.20 55.95 9.6M 7M 48.04
Current. Pullback on stronger above average volume managing to hold the 18 day MVA. Should hold here.
AMAG 11/04 Test BO 40.70 +0.24 40.95 48.98 186K 350K 39.31
Current.
ATHR 10/24 Test 20 21.97 -0.38 21.97 27.95 2.3M 4M 21.38
Current. Tapped 23.16 at the intraday high, but gave it back on below average volume. Still in good shape.
BAMM 10/23 Test BO 19.85 +0.12 20.24 24.45 63K 150K 18.94
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a tight doji on the 10 day MVA on low volume. Still in the pattern.
BIDU 11/07 Asc Bse 96.07 -0.03 91.15 101.95 3.4M 2M 93.15
Target Hit.
BMRN 10/11 DB hdl 16.75 -0.34 16.62 19.95 636K 1.2M 16.35
Current. Ease back testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on low volume. Typical pullback.
BRCM 09/25 Test 50 31.92 +0.03 30.96 35.68 24M 17M 30.98
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave much of it back on strong volume. Beginning to make a lateral move. 10 day MVA moving up to meet the stock.
CEPH 10/30 DB hdl 74.28 -0.31 71.85 81.95 3.1M 3M 72.68
Current. Pullback on above average volume. Still in uptrend.
CMG 11/04 Cup hdl 56.58 -1.10 57.65 66.98 481K 1.4M 55.45
Buy Not Issued.
COH 09/25 Test BO 38.62 -0.36 35.05 40.48 2M 5M 38.45
Current. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA on low volume. Routine pullback.
CRM 11/06 Cup hdl 41.58 -0.52 42.40 49.95 1.7M 3M 39.95
Current. Typical pullback on average volume. Looking for a bounce off the 10 day MVA (41)
CTRP 10/28 Test 50 53.25 -0.44 51.00 61.45 1M 577K 52.45
Current. Big gap down at the open and made a fierce rally back on strong volume surge. Came off the day's high of 54.45. Showing strength coming off the day's low.
CXW 10/18 Test 18 45.77 -1.56 47.60 55.75 658K 600K 45.95
Current. Pullback tapping 45.27 at the intraday low and rallied back to hold just below the 18 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Should hold here.
DJO 11/01 Asc Tri 44.09 +0.18 41.65 48.95 211K 280K 43.95
DRIV 09/09 Test BO 58.00 -0.58 50.34 57.50 834K 1.4M 56.38
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back on below average volume. May continue to test back to 10 day MVA (57.55)
EZPW 10/21 Test BO 48.35 +1.10 44.12 51.95 537K 750K 46.55
Current. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on rising volume making a 52 week high.
FFIV 11/04 Test BO 68.33 +2.84 65.05 74.95 2.3M 1.2M 62.95
Buy Not Issued.
FFIV 10/13 DB hdl 68.33 +2.84 58.00 69.95 2.3M 1.5M 64.95
Current. Gapped up at the open for a nice gain on strong volume surge. Came off the day's high of 70.57. Continue with the uptrend.
GILD 11/07 Asc Bse 67.06 -1.92 70.11 79.90 3.6M 5M 67.78
Buy Not Hit. Stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop.
GME 10/21 Test BO 51.99 -1.28 53.00 60.45 1.4M 1.7M 50.55
Current. Pullback on stronger above average volume managing to hold the 10 day MVA. May continue to test back to 18 day MVA (51.25)
GME 10/11 Cup hdl 51.99 -1.28 49.84 58.95 1.4M 2.1M 50.45
Current.
HOC 10/10 Dbl btm 50.95 +1.07 46.82 54.50 858K 1.2M 48.48
Current. Gapped up at the open and continued to move up the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Filled the gap intraday.
HOLX 11/06 DB hdl 46.54 -1.28 49.21 56.95 1.3M 1.4M 46.57
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back holding just above the 200 day MVA on slightly above average volume. Needs to hold here.
ICE 10/18 Test 18 83.50 -4.42 83.64 94.95 3.1M 2.4M 83.97
Current. Pullback on stronger above average volume to hold the 18 day MVA. Should hold here.
IIG 10/25 Asc Bse 18.96 -0.01 16.49 19.95 354K 200K 17.95
Target Hit. Ease back on slightly above average volume. Took some of the money off the table. Still in uptrend.
IM 10/25 DB hdl 20.74 -0.24 20.84 24.95 678K 1.5M 20.12
Current.
IO 11/01 Test BO 11.18 -0.71 11.80 13.98 5M 750K 11.12
Current.
LH 10/28 Cup hdl 67.57 -0.57 68.80 78.75 845K 1.5M 67.22
Buy Not Issued. Pullback testing the simple 50 day MVA on below average volume. Looking for a bounce off the simple 50 day MVA (67.37)
MRVC 11/04 Cup 3.25 -0.11 3.49 4.32 1.2M 2M 3.23
Buy Not Hit. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop.
MTW 11/02 Test BO 54.69 +0.18 55.50 66.48 968K 1.3M 52.39
Entered today.
NTGR 11/04 Test BO 26.46 -0.45 26.68 31.89 557K 750K 25.97
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back on low volume. Looking for a rebound off the 10 day MVA (26.25)
NUE 10/30 Test BO 60.11 +2.41 58.30 67.95 5.3M 4.5M 57.45
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA for a great move on stronger above average volume. Came off the day's high of 61.21. Moving up after testing the breakout.
NVEC 10/14 Test 50 40.33 -0.87 33.75 40.00 586K 580K 42.45
Current. Ease back on low volume holding the 10 day MVA. Testing the breakout. Should be ready to rebound.
NYX 11/02 Cup hdl 87.56 +5.05 77.10 87.95 4M 2.4M 85.45
Current. Exploded on excellent volume surge. Trading in March's trading level.
PFWD 11/08 Test BO 14.19 +0.15 14.24 17.00 283K 252K 13.24
Buy Not Hit. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Still in the pattern. Looking good.
PLCE 10/11 Cup hdl 69.08 -1.67 66.56 76.75 408K 922K 68.31
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back holding the 18 day MVA on rising volume. Looking for a rebound from here.
PLCE 09/14 Test 20 69.08 -1.67 59.85 68.00 408K 800K 67.45
Current.
QLGC 10/30 Test BO 20.71 +0.01 20.65 24.65 2.4M 3M 20.11
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave much of it back on rising volume. Moving up after testing the 18 day MVA.
SCHW 11/06 Cup hdl 18.05 -0.53 18.55 22.45 6.6M 6.5M 17.68
Buy Not Hit. Ease back on lower below average volume testing the 18 day MVA intraday. Still forming the handle.
SEIC 11/04 Test 50 56.72 -0.85 56.88 64.95 608K 850K 56.68
Current. Pullback on rising volume holding the 10 day MVA. Still in good shape.
SKX 11/02 Test BO 28.60 -0.52 29.41 34.95 263K 500K 28.48
Buy Not Issued. Ease back holding just below the 10 day MVA on low volume. Still in the pattern.
SMSC 10/03 Cup hdl 29.76 -1.07 29.21 34.75 104K 504K 31.22
Current.
SMSC 09/16 Cup hdl 29.76 -1.07 30.05 34.75 104K 504K 31.22
Current.
SMSI 10/18 Test BO 16.00 +0.14 17.77 21.38 755K 1.1M 16.75
Trailing Stop.
SMSI 10/04 Rev HS 16.00 +0.14 15.23 17.98 755K 1.5M 17.77
Exited.
STLD 10/28 Cup hdl 60.71 +0.28 61.68 72.45 1.3M 2.1M 59.95
Buy Not Issued.
TSRA 11/08 Test BO 36.52 -0.53 37.48 44.95 670K 1M 35.95
Buy Not Hit.
UCTT 11/08 FlyPlat 13.05 -0.07 13.42 16.21 339K 600K 12.48
Buy Not Hit. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back holding the 10 day MVA on low volume. Still in the pattern.
VCLK 11/01 Rev HS 21.43 -0.55 19.86 23.98 2.3M 2.4M 21.32
Current. Pullback tapping 21.11 at the intraday low and rallied back on rising volume. Typical pullback.
VOL 11/06 Test 50 41.79 -0.95 41.98 49.95 178K 400K 39.95
Buy Not Issued. Pullback on below average volume. Need to see a clear and decisive move on strong volume.
WMI 11/08 Cup hdl 38.35 +0.07 38.55 44.45 2.5M 2M 37.42
Buy Not Issued.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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