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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: CBG; LVS; NUE; PCU
New Plays:
New Pre-Split Play:
Play Date: 11/09/2006
AME (Ametek--$46.87; -0.11; optionable): Electronic instruments. Splits 3:2 on 11-28-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ame.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. AME has formed a rather ragged 6 month base. It gapped sharply higher in mid-October on its results, and has since worked lower, bouncing up off the 50 day EMA (45.45) to start November. It has come back the past two days to test and hold the 18 day EMA. Looking for it to put in a higher low here that starts its move anew as it makes a run towards its split.
Volume: 229.3K Avg Volume: 306.903K
BUY POINT: $47.75 Volume=450K Target=$54.95 Stop=$46.38
POSITION: AME CI - Mar. $45c (61 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ame.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 11/09/2006
BHE (Benchmark Electronics--$26.83; -0.03; optionable): Printed circuit boards
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bhe.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After a solid September to mid-October run BHE peaked and faded. It broke the 50 day EMA (26.63) to start the month, but held support at 26 and bounced. Gapped higher Thursday on the CSCO news but rolled over to close just over the 50 day. Looking for BHE to hold this level and start the run anew.
Volume: 1.086M Avg Volume: 575.82K
BUY POINT: $27.15 Volume=750K Target=$31.45 Stop=$26.38
POSITION: BHE DE - Apr. $25c (58 delta, low OI) or AYX AY - Jan. $26.62c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bhe.html
Play Date: 11/09/2006
CMC (Commercial Metals--$27.30; +0.19; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmc.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume jumped above average Thursday as CMC tried the breakout move from its 6 month base and toward a new all-time high. It could not close the deal Thursday as it broke higher but closed off its high at 27.81. Looking for it to continue higher on strong trade.
Volume: 1.694M Avg Volume: 1.214M
BUY POINT: $27.52 Volume=1.8M Target=$32.95 Stop=$26.38
POSITION: CMC CE - Mar. $25c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmc.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ATVI: No split with earnings after the close, but some nice earnings after hours
CMTL: Tentatively forecast 12-5-06
CTSH: Researching the next date.
GILD: No way to start a play, thudding lower as the election hangover took a different turn for biotechs.
JCI: Researching date.
JCP: Forecast 11-9-06. No split announcement with earnings but gapped sharply higher on a solid report.
STT: Tentatively set for mid-December
TECH: Researching date. Announced earnings 10-25-06
UNP: Researching date. Announced earnings 10-19-06
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/09/2006
ANSS (Ansys--$49.34; -0.26; optionable): Engineering simulation software
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 8-5-04 at $45.70
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Coming back the past week on lower and lower volume, testing the 10 day EMA (48.69) after a big gap higher to start the month. This last move took it up to the early August high, the 'hump' in the middle of the 7 month base that is setting ANSS up for another new high. Money flow is screaming higher ahead of the price, and this little low volume pullback is setting the price up to scream as well.
Volume: 227.794K Avg Volume: 236.483K
BUY POINT: $50.45 Volume=355K Target=$58.45 Stop=$48.55
POSITION: QUS AJ - Jan. $50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anss.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/07/2006
CMTL (Comtech Telecom--$36.12; -0.84; optionable): Telecom equipment
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 3-9-05 at $36.40. Before that a 3:2 split on 6-18-03 at $30.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmtl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Tested back to the 10 day EMA (35.83) on extremely low volume Thursday, resting after a solid move higher earlier in the week. Looking for this to hold and for CMTL to continue higher on rising trade. That is our cue to move in. To recap: Announced some orders Tuesday and enjoyed a strong day on strong, above average volume. This has taken CMTL to the brink of the breakout from its 11 month base. Set up nicely to make the break and we want to see this strong trade continue as it makes its move.
Volume: 137.362K Avg Volume: 265.079K
BUY POINT: $37.04 Volume=275K Target=$44.45 Stop=$34.88
POSITION: CQH DF - Apr. $35c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmtl.html
Play Date: 11/07/2006
JCI (Johnson Controls--$82.45; -0.72; optionable): Controllers and devices for autos, etc.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 11-18-03 at $105
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jci.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working laterally over the 18 day EMA (81.78) on continued below average volume. Nicely formed handle; just need to wait it out and see the break higher on strong volume. To recap: Nice 5 week handle has formed to its 5 month base, setting JCI up for the breakout and run to a new all-time high. Very strong stock that can run like the wind when it makes its move. Setting up nicely; just has to show us that move.
Volume: 759.6K Avg Volume: 1.125M
BUY POINT: $85.05 Volume=1.7M Target=$97.85 Stop=$81.95
POSITION: JCI DQ - Apr. $85c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jci.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/31/2006
STLD (Steel Dynamics--$60.71; +0.28; optionable): Steel & iron. Splits 2:1 on or about 11-20-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stld.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume was up as STLD surged higher early but then faded to give it all back. Another doji over the 10 day EMA (60.18), setting it up for the breakout. To recap: Testing to form the handle the past week, holding near support as it forms the handle to its 6 month base. Solid upside volume to finish the right side of the pattern and now a nice lower volume fade to form the handle. Did not get much mileage out of the split announcement, but the pattern is solid and STLD can rip off a lot of real estate in a hurry when it gets moving.
Volume: 1.323M Avg Volume: 1.33M
BUY POINT: Breakout: $62.22 Volume=2.1M Target=$72.45 Stop=$59.95
POSITION: RQL BL - Feb. $60c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stld.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/04/2006
NBL (Noble Energy--$49.82; +0.39; optionable): Oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nbl.html
EARNINGS: Announced 11-1-06
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Gapped higher on a solid jump in volume, but it closed with a doji and off the high, sporting just a modest move. If it can continue higher from here, however, showing us the move was just truncated by the market turn back lower, then we move in. To recap; Continues working on the handle with some lower volume to start this week as it tests the 10 day EMA. Still in the handle, still ready to make the move, but yet to show it yet. Nice, but you know about those pretty pictures: that is all they are until they deliver.
Volume: 1.461M Avg Volume: 1.385M
BUY POINT: New: $50.08 (orig. $49.45) Volume=1.7M Target=$56.95 Stop=$47.35
POSITION: NBL BJ - Feb. $50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nbl.html
Play Date: 11/08/2006
THQI (THQ, Inc.--$29.97; -0.58; optionable): Multimedia graphics software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thqi.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After the strong surge higher Wednesday, THQI backed off Thursday on lower volume, holding the 18 day EMA (29.84) on the close. Nice action in a market that rolled over. Looking for it to hold here and rebound again on rising volume. To recap: Nice breakout in early September from a 5 month cup with handle base took THQI to 32 in mid-October. It came back to test, then sold a bit more to start November in that selling. That took it to the 50 day EMA (28.82) Tuesday, but Wednesday it was full of fire as it rebounded to post a nice price gain on continued strong volume. Nice rebound off of key support, and looking to move in as it continues through the buy point.
Volume: 1.221M Avg Volume: 1.507M
BUY POINT: $31.38 Volume=2M Target=$37.72 Stop=$29.69
POSITION: QHI CF - Mar. $30c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/thqi.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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