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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good Movers: AMAG; ADS; CTRP; CXW; NYX; PFWD
Strong plays:
1) ERTS: Nice test of the breakout looks to be over.
2) MA: New issue ready to rebound after testing its strong run.
3) AKAM: Nice new pattern
4) NVEC: Nice lateral test ready to break higher again
5) CMG: Ready to make the breakout
6) LAZ: The handle/test has formed.
7) STLD: Excellent set up for the break higher.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 11/11/2006
ERTS (Electronic Arts--$58.48; +0.56; optionable): Multimedia electronic games
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/erts.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Announced strong earnings 1-2-06 and gapped higher out of a 6 week consolidation that was trying to form a double bottom. After that gap it tested back last week, holding most of the game as the 10 day EMA (57.13) rose to meet it. Friday it tapped the 10 day after gapping lower, but that brought the buyers back in. It posted a gain but volume was not running higher with it. Looking for that to return this week as ERTS continues this pre-holiday run.
Volume: 3.034M Avg Volume: 3.556M
BUY POINT: $58.89 Volume=3.8M Target=$67.95 Stop=$56.95
POSITION: EZQ CK - Mar. $55c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/erts.html
Play Date: 11/11/2006
IVAC (Intevac--$24.25; +0.41; no options): Disk equipment for magnetic media producers used in hard disk drives.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ivac.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. IVAC gapped higher to end October and rallied to 24 where it started to move laterally last week on lowered trade. It looks to be forming up a handle to its 8 month base, the lateral move where the stock consolidates, shakes out sellers, and then makes the breakout and run. May take another 3 sessions or so to set that up, but it is showing a lot of momentum and once it gets another session or two under its belt it could take off again and we want to be ready. Like how it has plenty of room ahead before it hits any resistance.
Volume: 280.376K Avg Volume: 360.462K
BUY POINT: $24.62 Volume=541K Target=$29.85 Stop=$22.95
POSITION:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ivac.html
Play Date: 11/11/2006
MA (MasterCard--$89.20; +1.00; optionable): Credit services, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ma.html
STATUS: Test breakout. After that tremendous surge thus far this month MA is coming back to test on falling though still strong volume. It is holding well above the 10 day EMA (86.17) as it showed a doji on Friday, indicating the pullback is slowing and readying for the turn back up. We want to be ready to move back in and ride the next run when it starts the rebound this week. Can make masterful moves.
Volume: 2.854M Avg Volume: 2.298M
BUY POINT: $90.11 Volume=3M Target=$100.00 Stop=$87.55
POSITION: MA AR - Jan. $90c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ma.html
Play Date: 11/11/2006
NUVO (Nuvelo--$19.20; +1.26; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nuvo.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Solid surge on strong volume Friday as NUVO surged, continuing higher off of its test of the 200 day SMA (17.31) to start the month. This put in a low for the 10 week base that has formed as a consolidation of an earlier August breakout from a 6 month base. Money flow is running higher ahead of price and we are looking to move in as NUVO continues following it. After this first move we will then wait for a test and when it rebounds we will add to positions.
Volume: 856.799K Avg Volume: 458.526K
BUY POINT: $19.33 Volume=465K Target=$23.35 Stop=$17.98
POSITION: CDQ DW - Apr. $17.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nuvo.html
Play Date: 11/11/2006
OPLK (Oplink Communications--$20.21; +0.22; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits for optical networking components
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oplk.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. OPLK broke out from a 4.5 month cup with handle base in mid-October and rallied over 22 on the move. It stumbled and has come back, giving up its breakout to start the month, but immediately rebounding to hold that level and the 50 day EMA (19.85) that is right there as well. Money flow continues to run higher ahead of OPLK as it moves laterally on low volume, setting up the next move. Want to see volume jack back up as OPLK rebounds and links up with a good run for us.
Volume: 138.176K Avg Volume: 268.591K
BUY POINT: $20.38 Volume=368K Target=$24.65 Stop=$18.72
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/oplk.html
New buy point on current play:
Play Date: 11/11/2006
AKAM (Akamai Technologies--$50.07; +2.05; optionable): Internet content delivery and business processes
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/akam.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. I am not sure what the heck Akamai means, but its ticker symbol in the market means leader. AKAM is setting up well for yet another run, forming a short but sweet 6 week base using the key support at the 50 day EMA (46.50) for the lows. Love to see a strong stock use the 50 day as support after a good run. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the pattern (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying during the consolidation to once more break AKAM higher to a six year high. Suffered a distribution session Thursday after gapping higher and reversing. Nice recovery session Friday on above average volume complementing a strong Tuesday upside session.
Volume: 7.488M Avg Volume: 5.137M
BUY POINT: $50.75 Volume=7.5M Target=$60.95 Stop=$48.21
POSITION: UMU BJ - Feb. $50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/akam.html
Play Date: 11/11/2006
NVEC (NVE Corp.--$41.33; +1.00; no options): Nanotechnology (spintronics)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvec.html
STATUS: Breakout test. NVEC came to life in July after a one-year dormancy and we rode that to a nice gain. It formed a 5 week cup and broke higher again in mid-October and we are currently riding that move. Now it has worked laterally the past 4 weeks and the 18 day EMA (39.41) has risen to meet it. Low volume the past two weeks as the pattern tightens. Looking to move in on a strong bounce in volume accompanied by a price jump through the buy point.
Volume: 525.85K Avg Volume: 896.341K
BUY POINT: $41.89 Volume=1.1M Target=$50.45 Stop=$39.33
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nvec.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/23/2006
BAMM (Books-A-Million, Inc.--$20.06; +0.21; no options): Book retailer
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bamm.html
EARNINGS: 11-16-06?
STATUS: Flying plateau. Working laterally the past 5 weeks as BAMM consolidates the early October breakout from a 13 week cup with handle base. Low, low volume the past week as it worked along the 18 day EMA (19.67). Really nice set up to the breakout that will take BAMM to a new all-time closing high. Just want to see the volume go bam as it makes the breakout.
Volume: 52.605K Avg Volume: 102.889K
BUY POINT: $20.24 Volume=150K Target=$24.45 Stop=$18.94
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bamm.html
Play Date: 11/04/2006
CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill--$57.30; +0.72; optionable): Casual restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-31-06
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice doji Friday at the 18 day EMA (56.99) on very low volume as CMG puts the finishing touches on its handle. Excellent action from this stock and looking for the breakout to put some more spice into it. To recap: A new issue in January, the current 6 month base is its first real consolidation. After earnings it gapped lower to the 18 day EMA Thursday and Friday to finish the week, showing a pair of dojis on the candlestick chart at that point. Looking for it to regroup at this level and then show us the breakout move.
Volume: 425K Avg Volume: 973.212K
BUY POINT: $57.65 Volume=1.4M Target=$66.98 Stop=$55.45
POSITION: CMG CK - Mar. $55c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cmg.html
Play Date: 11/09/2006
LAZ (Lazard Ltd.--$42.67; -0.28; optionable): Asset management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/laz.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Spiked higher in early November on strong earnings, hit 44 on the move, and faded back to test. Ended the week with a nice doji at the 10 day EMA with volume bouncing well above average. This looks like the move to set up the breakout. To recap: Strong volume to start the month as LAZ rallied on earnings and a nice dividend. It has come back the past three sessions on very low volume, forming the handle to this nice 7 month base. Excellent 'first' base (a new issue in May 2005) is setting up a strong breakout. Nice action.
Volume: 475.2K Avg Volume: 365.817K
BUY POINT: $44.12 Volume=555K Target=$51.95 Stop=$42.22
POSITION: LAZ CH - Mar. $40c (64 delta) or LAZ CI - Mar. $45c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/laz.html
Play Date: 10/28/2006
STLD (Steel Dynamics--$59.81; -0.90; optionable): Steel & iron. Splits 2:1 on or about 11-20-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stld.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Worked laterally all week just on top of the 10 day EMA (59.12); it likes being on top. This is setting up a nice breakout. Just waiting for it to make a dynamic move. To recap: Testing to form the handle the past week, holding near support as it forms the handle to its 6 month base. Solid upside volume to finish the right side of the pattern and now a nice lower volume fade to form the handle. Did not get much mileage out of the split announcement, but the pattern is solid and STLD can rip off a lot of real estate in a hurry when it gets moving.
Volume: 702.277K Avg Volume: 1.301M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $61.31. Breakout: $62.22 Volume=2.1M Target=$72.45 Stop=$59.95
POSITION: RQL BL - Feb. $60c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stld.html
Play Date: 11/08/2006
TSRA (Tessera Technologies--$37.57; +1.05; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsra.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice price move Friday but volume did not follow with it, and that kept us from moving in on the play. Still a nice pattern and ready to buy it if it can show a bit more trade on the move; that indicates the buyers are back in after this breakout test. Money flow remains strong. To recap: TSRA broke out from an 8 month reverse head and shoulders base in October but immediately came back to test. We saw it on that breakout, but then it turned back and gave it up. It managed to hold the 50 day EMA (34.52) and rebounded on some strong volume to start November. It has regained the breakout and eased back in a next test. Solid leader, one of the tops in its sector.
Volume: 581.171K Avg Volume: 675.855K
BUY POINT: New: $37.75 (orig. $37.48) Volume=1M Target=$44.95 Stop=$35.95
POSITION: TJQ CG - Mar. $35c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tsra.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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