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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: AEOS; BRCM; COH; CTRP; CTSH; FFIV; GYMB; ICE; JCP; LVS; QLGC; SMSC; VSEA
New Plays:
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 11/14/2006
EAT (Brinker Intl.--$46.68; -0.11; optionable): Casual restaurants. Splits 3:2 on 12-1-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eat.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Looking at EAT again as it has tightened up its lateral move at the 10 day EMA (46.28), refusing to give up its gains. May take a couple more sessions of tighter trading, but its split date is starting to near and this pattern indicates a squirt higher before much longer.
Volume: 718.4K Avg Volume: 1.293M
BUY POINT: $47.05 Volume=1.4M Target=$55.95 Stop=$45.38
POSITION: EAT DI - Apr. $45c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eat.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 11/14/2006
JCOM (J2 Global Communications--$27.55; +0.53; optionable): Outsourced value added messaging/communications services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jcom.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. JCOM has formed an extended handle to its 17 week base, working laterally above support at the 50 day EMA (26.81) as it does. Nice pattern that is setting up well for a breakout. It has had some of the option dating issues and is currently investigating them. Still, it is showing nice action, and if we see a break higher on strong volume we will be ready because the chart will be indicating what is ahead.
Volume: 411.478K Avg Volume: 489.7K
BUY POINT: $28.35 Volume=735K Target=$32.95 Stop=$26.95
POSITION: JQF CE - Mar. $25c (71 delta, 167 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jcom.html
Leader Plays:
Play Date: 11/14/2006
UARM (Under Armour--$45.31; +0.91; optionable): Athletic clothing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uarm.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Strong breakout from a double bottom with handle in early October made us some nice money, and after that run UARM is testing back, taking a breather near the 50 day EMA (43.36) before it tries another run. Going to be patient and let it finish the test and show us a strong upside break on strong volume.
Volume: 627.941K Avg Volume: 882.654K
BUY POINT: $46.25 Volume=1.3M Target=$53.45 Stop=$44.24
POSITION: UWG DI - Apr. $45c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uarm.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AEOS: Forecast 11-14-06 before the open. Announced its 3:2 split.
ANSS: Researching the date.
ATVI: Researching next day and moving well as we do so.
CMTL: Tentatively forecast 12-5-06
CTSH: Researching the next date.
GILD: Sold to the 50 day EMA but has found support there thus far. Watching to see if it can set up and give us a buy point.
GYMB: Wildcard forecast 11-15-06 after the close
JCI: Researching date.
JCP: No split announced on 11-9-06, but super earnings are sending it higher again.
STT: Tentatively set for mid-December
TECH: Researching date. Announced earnings 10-25-06
UNP: Researching date. Announced earnings 10-19-06
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/14/2006
CWTR (Coldwater Creek--$29.67; +1.07; optionable): Specialty retail stores. Forecast 11-21-06 after the close
BACKGROUND: A frequent splitter though probably early for the next split. Last split 3:2 on 12-12-05 at $33.50. Before that on 2-14-05 at $26.90. Like these as they build up shares for holding onto a good stock.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cwtr.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Gapped higher Tuesday on the strong retail sales figures, rising on strong volume. It is working for the breakout of its 7 month base to send it yet to another new high. Sold leader and looking for a continued solid move through the buy point to start the play. Money flow is running higher, leading the way. After it makes the break we are going to let it run and then catch more positions as it tests that first move and continues higher.
Volume: 2.891M Avg Volume: 1.368M
BUY POINT: $30.32 Volume=1.8M Target=$36.45 Stop=$28.48
POSITION: UCJ DF - Apr. $30c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cwtr.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/26/2006
STT (State Street--$64.00; +0.44; optionable): Regional bank. Announced earnings 10-17-06.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 12-21-00 at $119. Before that a 2:1 split on 2-20-97 at $80
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Money flow continues to rise ahead of price as STT continues its tight lateral move over the 50 day EMA (63.07). It looks great with that rising money and tight range, and on Tuesday volume jumped back above average as it tapped the 50 day on the low and rebounded. Looks like it has made the shakeout; just need to see that volume continue with a move through the buy point. To recap: We are likely a bit early on any split announcement, but post-2000 splits are at lower prices and STT's sector tends to announce in this range. Regardless, it is a good test of the 50 day EMA, and volume shot higher Thursday as it came up and off that level. Looking for strong trade to continue as it moves higher through the buy point.
Volume: 1.506M Avg Volume: 1.241M
BUY POINT: $64.48 Volume=1.5M Target=$72.95 Stop=$62.48
POSITION: STT BM - Feb. $65c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stt.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/31/2006
STLD (Steel Dynamics--$60.33; +0.12; optionable): Steel & iron. Splits 2:1 on or about 11-20-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stld.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Man. STLD continues working along the 18 day EMA (59.53), moving in a tight range. Still waiting for a dynamic move. Yep, waiting. To recap: Testing to form the handle the past week, holding near support as it forms the handle to its 6 month base. Solid upside volume to finish the right side of the pattern and now a nice lower volume fade to form the handle. Did not get much mileage out of the split announcement, but the pattern is solid and STLD can rip off a lot of real estate in a hurry when it gets moving.
Volume: 847.123K Avg Volume: 1.294M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $61.31. Breakout: $62.22 Volume=2.1M Target=$72.45 Stop=$59.95
POSITION: RQL BL - Feb. $60c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stld.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/09/2006
BHE (Benchmark Electronics--$26.91; +0.14; optionable): Printed circuit boards
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bhe.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Tight doji at the 50 day EMA (26.65) Tuesday as volume edged higher toward average. Just needs that volume to push it back up after this test. To recap: After a solid September to mid-October run BHE peaked and faded. It broke the 50 day EMA to start the month, but held support at 26 and bounced. Gapped higher Thursday on the CSCO news but rolled over to close just over the 50 day. Looking for BHE to hold this level and start the run anew.
Volume: 693.7K Avg Volume: 590.194K
BUY POINT: $27.15 Volume=750K Target=$31.45 Stop=$26.38
POSITION: BHE DE - Apr. $25c (58 delta, low OI) or AYX AY - Jan. $26.62c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bhe.html
Play Date: 11/13/2006
SAY (Satyam Computer Services--$22.64; +0.03; optionable): IT services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/say.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. After that strong break higher Monday SAY tried to continue, but even though volume was solid it closed flat. It tested and rebounded, so still looking for a move higher from here to enter. To recap: Volume jumped back above average Monday as SAY started the breakout from a 7.5 month base. Moving to a new all-time high on that strong trade. SAY has moved into market leadership with some strong fundamentals growth rates on top of an excellent technical pattern. Ready to move in as SAY continues higher on more solid trade.
Volume: 1.505M Avg Volume: 1.008M
BUY POINT: $22.84 Volume=1.1M Target=$27.45 Stop=$21.54
POSITION: SAY DX - Apr. $22.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/say.html
Play Date: 11/13/2006
WBSN (Websense--$27.69; +0.17; optionable): Employees internet management and web security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wbsn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Money flow continues higher as WBSN still works laterally over the 10 day EMA (27.04) in its handle. It is ready to move, just has to show it. To recap: Like seeing this 2004 and 2005 leader forming back up in an excellent pattern for a breakout move. Nice, very quiet three week lateral move has allowed the 10 day EMA to catch up with it after a strong gap higher in late October helped form the right side of its 10 month base. Excellent volume on the surge, and now a very quiet low volume handle has formed as money flow moves higher ahead of price. Excellent set up for this former leader that is setting up to lead once more.
Volume: 323.75K Avg Volume: 687.509K
BUY POINT: $28.22 Volume=1M Target=$33.95 Stop=$26.78
POSITION: DQH DE - Apr. $25c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wbsn.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/11/2006
AKAM (Akami Technologies--$49.89; +0.34; optionable): Internet content delivery and business processes
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/akam.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Another tight doji just above the 10 day EMA (48.94) as AKAM looks to be setting up very nicely for that next breakout move. Somewhat surprised it did not participate in the Tuesday move; makes it somewhat suspect, but the beauty of our plays is that you see the move and then make your move. To recap: AKAM is setting up well for yet another run, forming a short but sweet 6 week base using the key support at the 50 day EMA (46.74) for the lows. Love to see a strong stock use the 50 day as support after a good run. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the pattern (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying during the consolidation to once more break AKAM higher to a six year high. Suffered a distribution session Thursday after gapping higher and reversing. Nice recovery session Friday on above average volume complementing a strong Tuesday upside session.
Volume: 3.726M Avg Volume: 5.191M
BUY POINT: $50.75 Volume=7.5M Target=$60.95 Stop=$48.21
POSITION: UMU BJ - Feb. $50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/akam.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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