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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
We apologize for the late part 3. Some technical difficulties in the form of a wind storm that knocked out some power lines was the culprit.
THE PLAYS
Strong plays:
1) ACTU: Solid trade as it breaks higher.
2) SMSI: Market leader coming off the 50 day EMA on strong volume.
3) HMSY: Looks as ready as it will get.
4) WBSN: Starting toward the buy point in its strong base.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 11/15/2006
ACTU (Actuate--$5.71; +0.26; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/actu.html
STATUS: Test breakout. After a solid volume doji at the 10 day EMA Tuesday, ACTU jumped higher on more strong trade Wednesday, continuing its late October breakout run. A nice, solid and orderly test of the breakout from the 6 month cup with handle and the resumption of the move on strong volume off of near support shows us the big money is back in. That is our signal to enter.
Volume: 485.7K Avg Volume: 285K
BUY POINT: $5.78 Volume=300K Target=$6.97 Stop=$5.38
POSITION: UCV DA - Apr. $5c (65 delta, 60 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/actu.html
Play Date: 11/15/2006
CEO (CNOOC--$86.76; -0.44; optionable): Chinese oil company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceo.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Setting up for a breakout to a new all-time high. Very nice 12 week base has formed over the 200 day SMA (82.08), the past three sessions coming back to the 10 day EMA to form that handle, the last shakeout before a bigger breakout and run higher. Solid volume as CEO broke higher last week, and looking for that continued solid volume as it moves up and shows us the breakout move.
Volume: 376K Avg Volume: 250K
BUY POINT: $88.22 Volume=375K Target=$99.90 Stop=$85.74
POSITION: CEO CR - Mar. $90c (56 delta, 83 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ceo.html
Play Date: 11/15/2006
SMSI (Smith Micro Software--$16.85; +0.81; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smsi.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Strong volume jumped in on Wednesday as SMSI got some traction off the lateral move over the 50 day EMA (15.43). This test follows the October breakout from a 3 month cup with handle and run higher. Looking for this test to give us a good entry point as SMSI sets up to make us some money once again.
Volume: 120.24K Avg Volume: 110K
BUY POINT: $17.11 Volume=165K Target=$20.55 Stop=$15.91
POSITION: QPM DW - Apr. $17.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/smsi.html
Play Date: 11/15/2006
TYL (Tyler Technologies--$14.35; +0.43; no options): Technical system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tyl.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After the late July breakout from a 4 month base, TYL rallied up the 10 and 18 day EMA. It needed a break, a breather, and it took that this month with a test of the 50 day EMA (13.36). It held and jumped higher Tuesday on strong volume. Money flow is leading higher and we are looking for TYL to continue the move to a new high.
Volume: 452.2K Avg Volume: 225K
BUY POINT: $14.52 Volume=265K Target=$17.48 Stop=$13.65
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tyl.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/09/2006
HMSY (HMS Holdings--$14.09; +0.06; no options): Cost containment and payment accuracy services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hmsy.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Another nice doji at the 18 day EMA. Sure looks ready. To recap: Looks as if the test has run its course as it reached down toward the 50 day EMA (13.44) on the low and rebounded on strong volume to post a gain on Monday. Looks ready to continue the breakout move from its 8 week base. Want to see that volume continue as HMSY resumes the breakout run.
Volume: 119.702K Avg Volume: 249.948K
BUY POINT: $14.55 Volume=331K Target=$17.65 Stop=$13.53
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hmsy.html
Play Date: 11/14/2006
MRVC (MRV Communications--$3.30; -0.01; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrvc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still holding steady over the 18 day EMA. The move is set up. To recap: Nice three week handle, filling the gap from late October, holding the 18 day EMA (3.24). Volume was up Tuesday as it tested and rebounded. Looking at this as the last stage of its handle and how looking for the break higher on continued increasing volume that will take it out of its 9 month base. Looking for a run back toward the top in the base to give us a 28%ish stock gain.
Volume: 1.383M Avg Volume: 1.369M
BUY POINT: $3.49 Volume=1.9M Target=$4.48 Stop=$3.22
POSITION: MQU CZ - Mar. $2.50c (62 delta, 105 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mrvc.html
Play Date: 11/13/2006
SAY (Satyam Computer Services--$22.70; +0.06; optionable): IT services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/say.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Two dojis in a row following the strong Monday move; taking a break on lower volume, holding its gains. Looking for this test to hold near here and resume the breakout. Like it when a stock refuses to give up its gains. To recap: Volume jumped back above average Monday as SAY started the breakout from a 7.5 month base. Moving to a new all-time high on that strong trade. SAY has moved into market leadership with some strong fundamentals growth rates on top of an excellent technical pattern. Ready to move in as SAY continues higher on more solid trade.
Volume: 1.051M Avg Volume: 1.015M
BUY POINT: $22.84 Volume=1.1M Target=$27.45 Stop=$21.54
POSITION: SAY DX - Apr. $22.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/say.html
Play Date: 11/13/2006
WBSN (Websense--$28.05; +0.36; optionable): Employees internet management and web security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wbsn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Got a bit interesting Wednesday as WBSN came off the 10 day EMA, moving right up to the buy point. Volume did not move, however. Want to see that improve as it makes the buy point. To recap: Like seeing this 2004 and 2005 leader forming back up in an excellent pattern for a breakout move. Nice, very quiet three week lateral move has allowed the 10 day EMA to catch up with it after a strong gap higher in late October helped form the right side of its 10 month base. Excellent volume on the surge, and now a very quiet low volume handle has formed as money flow moves higher ahead of price. Excellent set up for this former leader that is setting up to lead once more.
Volume: 339.253K Avg Volume: 681.998K
BUY POINT: $28.22 Volume=1M Target=$33.95 Stop=$26.78
POSITION: DQH DE - Apr. $25c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wbsn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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