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trade stock, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Plays:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 11/16/2006
BBY (Best Buy--$55.01; +1.90; optionable): Electronics stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bby.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Strong volume this week as BBY comes off a test of the 90 day SMA, rebounding well. Ready to make the break from its 7 month base, following the money flow higher.
Volume: 7.516M Avg Volume: 4.75M
BUY POINT: $55.45 Volume=5M Target=$63.95 Stop=$52.95
POSITION: BBY CK - Mar. $55c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bby.html
Play Date: 11/17/2006
CLDN (Celadon Group--$20.42; +0.73; no options): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cldn.html
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. Volume jumped above average Thursday as CLDN started higher in the handle of its 5 month base. Very solid pattern that held the 200 day SMA (17.65) on the lows and then the 50 day EMA (18.63) in the handle. Looking ready for a new all-time high.
Volume: 444.1K Avg Volume: 335K
BUY POINT: $20.68 Volume=502K Target=$24.95 Stop=$19.23
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cldn.html
Play Date: 11/17/2006
OTEX (Open Text--$20.31; +0.44; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/otex.html
STATUS: Test breakout. OTEX is on the move again, rallying Thursday on strong volume as it resumes the breakout move from its 6 month cup with handle base. Excellent price/volume action on the run higher shows the buyers coming in still. Very nice action from a leader sporting strong fundamentals growth rates.
Volume: 756.1K Avg Volume: 375K
BUY POINT: $20.48 Volume=388K Target=$24.65 Stop=$19.31
POSITION: QFT BD - Feb. $20c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/otex.html
Leader Play: No splits in its history, but the sector is hot.
Play Date: 11/17/2006
HET (Harrahs Entertainment--$76.08; +1.17; optionable): Resorts and casinos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/het.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong volume Thursday as HET starts higher in the handle of its 7 month base. Money flow is surging ahead of price, and the sector has been on fire. Looking for continued solid trade as it make the break higher.
Volume: 4.322M Avg Volume: 2.7M
BUY POINT: $76.38 Volume=3M Target=$85.45 Stop=$74.42
POSITION: HET BO - Feb. $75c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/het.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AEOS: Forecast 11-14-06 before the open. Announced its 3:2 split.
ANSS: Researching the date.
ATVI: Researching next day and moving well as we do so.
CMTL: Tentatively forecast 12-5-06
CTSH: Researching the next date.
CWTR: Forecast 11-21-06 after the close
GILD: Sold to the 50 day EMA but has found support there thus far. Watching to see if it can set up and give us a buy point.
GYMB: Wildcard forecast 11-15-06 after the close. No split and had earnings issues.
JCI: Researching date.
JCP: No split announced on 11-9-06, but super earnings are sending it higher again.
STT: Tentatively set for mid-December
TECH: Researching date. Announced earnings 10-25-06
UNP: Researching date. Announced earnings 10-19-06
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/26/2006
STT (State Street--$64.38; +0.68; optionable): Regional bank. Announced earnings 10-17-06.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 12-21-00 at $119. Before that a 2:1 split on 2-20-97 at $80
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Broke higher and with the solid trade the prior two sessions we were ready. But it moved back down at the close. Still looks ready to make the move. To recap: We are likely a bit early on any split announcement, but post-2000 splits are at lower prices and STT's sector tends to announce in this range. Regardless, it is a good test of the 50 day EMA, and volume shot higher Thursday as it came up and off that level. Looking for strong trade to continue as it moves higher through the buy point.
Volume: 1.317M Avg Volume: 1.252M
BUY POINT: $64.48 Volume=1.5M Target=$72.95 Stop=$62.48
POSITION: STT BM - Feb. $65c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stt.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/14/2006
EAT (Brinker Intl.--$46.87; +0.49; optionable): Casual restaurants. Splits 3:2 on 12-1-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eat.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice pair of dojis on low volume at the 10 day EMA (46.40) as EAT tightens up well in the consolidation of the strong move in late October. Just waiting for the break higher on volume. To recap: Looking at EAT again as it has tightened up its lateral move at the 10 day EMA, refusing to give up its gains. May take a couple more sessions of tighter trading, but its split date is starting to near and this pattern indicates a squirt higher before much longer.
Volume: 390.4K Avg Volume: 1.282M
BUY POINT: $47.05 Volume=1.4M Target=$55.95 Stop=$45.38
POSITION: EAT DI - Apr. $45c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eat.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/09/2006
BHE (Benchmark Electronics--$26.88; +0.04; optionable): Printed circuit boards
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bhe.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Still holding at the 50 day EMA (26.66) in a tight doji. Just looking for the break higher. To recap: After a solid September to mid-October run BHE peaked and faded. It broke the 50 day EMA to start the month, but held support at 26 and bounced. Gapped higher Thursday on the CSCO news but rolled over to close just over the 50 day. Looking for BHE to hold this level and start the run anew.
Volume: 536.9K Avg Volume: 597.518K
BUY POINT: $27.15 Volume=750K Target=$31.45 Stop=$26.38
POSITION: BHE DE - Apr. $25c (58 delta, low OI) or AYX AY - Jan. $26.62c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bhe.html
Play Date: 11/14/2006
JCOM (J2 Global Communications--$28.16; 0.00; optionable): Outsourced value added messaging/communications services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jcom.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice price move Wednesday brought JCOM close to its breakout. Volume faded Thursday as it stalled near the breakout. Just waiting for the break higher. To recap: JCOM has formed an extended handle to its 17 week base, working laterally above support at the 50 day EMA (26.81) as it does. Nice pattern that is setting up well for a breakout. It has had some of the option dating issues and is currently investigating them. Still, it is showing nice action, and if we see a break higher on strong volume we will be ready because the chart will be indicating what is ahead.
Volume: 296.03K Avg Volume: 483.28K
BUY POINT: $28.35 Volume=735K Target=$32.95 Stop=$26.95
POSITION: JQF CE - Mar. $25c (71 delta, 167 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jcom.html
Play Date: 11/13/2006
WBSN (Websense--$27.74; -0.31; optionable): Employees internet management and web security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wbsn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still in the lateral handle on very low volume. It is set to make the break, but has to show it. To recap: Like seeing this 2004 and 2005 leader forming back up in an excellent pattern for a breakout move. Nice, very quiet three week lateral move has allowed the 10 day EMA to catch up with it after a strong gap higher in late October helped form the right side of its 10 month base. Excellent volume on the surge, and now a very quiet low volume handle has formed as money flow moves higher ahead of price. Excellent set up for this former leader that is setting up to lead once more.
Volume: 371.828K Avg Volume: 673.7K
BUY POINT: $28.22 Volume=1M Target=$33.95 Stop=$26.78
POSITION: DQH DE - Apr. $25c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wbsn.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/11/2006
AKAM (Akami Technologies--$49.20; +1.10; optionable): Internet content delivery and business processes
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/akam.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. After the thud lower to the 50 day SMA Wednesday, AKAM sucked it up and held with a modest bounce. Volume was lower, but it did what it had to do, i.e. held the pattern. Looking for a strong break higher on that continued strong trade. To recap: AKAM is setting up well for yet another run, forming a short but sweet 6 week base using the key support at the 50 day EMA (46.89) for the lows. Love to see a strong stock use the 50 day as support after a good run. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the pattern (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying during the consolidation to once more break AKAM higher to a six year high. Suffered a distribution session last Thursday after gapping higher and reversing. Nice recovery session Friday on above average volume complementing a strong Tuesday upside session.
Volume: 5.387M Avg Volume: 5.238M
BUY POINT: $50.75 Volume=7.5M Target=$60.95 Stop=$48.21
POSITION: UMU BJ - Feb. $50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/akam.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
stock split
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