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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: AMAG; BIDU; ICE; PFWD
Strong plays:
1) CYMI: Nice test of the 10 day EMA setting up the next break higher.
2) BRCM: A good rest at the 200 day SMA after clearing that level.
3) LRCX: Nice test after a big surge.
4) SMSC: Excellent tap of the 10 day EMA has set the continued breakout move.
5) CMG: Volume is up as CMG heads toward the breakout.
6) SMSI: Holding its bounce to end the week.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 11/18/2006
CYMI (Cymer--$48.23; -0.36; optionable): Chip equipment lasers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cymi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CYMI has formed a short but sweet 5 week base that is acting as the handle to a larger 7 month cup with handle base. Solid break higher off the 50 day EMA (45.67) a week back and then a nice low volume test back to the 10 day EMA (47.62) to end last week. One of those stocks we were talking about that has set up a good pattern, made a good move, and is coming back to test and is set for the next bounce. Has plenty of room ahead to make us a nice gain without the need to plow new ground, but it has a good shot of heading toward a new all-time high on the next strong run.
Volume: 449.56K Avg Volume: 873.814K
BUY POINT: $49.05 Volume=1.2M Target=$56.45 Stop=$47.48
POSITION: CQG BJ - Feb. $50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cymi.html
New buy points on current positions: As noted in the summary, many leaders have set up for new buys. Love averaging up into winners.
Play Date: 11/18/2006
BRCM (Broadcom--$34.99; -0.06; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcm.html
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. Excellent move as BRCM broke higher from an 11 week lateral consolidation two weeks back, clearing the 200 day SMA (34.43) on this move. It then started laterally to end the week, refusing to give up the gains and holding above the key support at the 200 day. Looking FOR a break higher from this test to give us a new entry to the next phase of the run.
Volume: 13.4M Avg Volume: 17.04M
BUY POINT: $35.33 Volume=20M Target=$41.95 Stop=$33.75
POSITION: RCQ BZ - Feb. $32.50c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brcm.html
Play Date: 11/18/2006
CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$56.00; 0.00; optionable): Chinese travel service
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice blast higher on strong volume from a 17 week base the second week of November. Surged to 60 on the move and then needed a breather, coming back Thursday and Friday to test near support at the 10 day EMA (55.32). Excellent breakout, run, and test. Strong money flow led the way, and it is holding up nicely as it makes the test. Looking for it to bounce off the Friday doji at the 10 day EMA to give us the buy point.
Volume: 559.287K Avg Volume: 399.95K
BUY POINT: $56.72 Volume=600K Target=$67.95 Stop=$54.95
POSITION: QCT CK - Mar. $55c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ctrp.html
Play Date: 11/18/2006
LRCX (Lam Research--$54.34; -0.09; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lrcx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. One of the early leaders in the tech comeback, LRCX surged higher in October on earnings, formed a nice 5 week handle to a 6 month cup with handle base, and blasted higher again Monday. It spent the last half of the week coming back to test, showing a pair of dojis on the candlestick chart above near support at the 10 day EMA (52.65). Looking for it to give us another buy point off of this test as this leader plows to a new high. May come back and test a bit more, but with the holiday week it may come right back up from here.
Volume: 2.835M Avg Volume: 3.768M
BUY POINT: $54.72 Volume=4.8M Target=$62.95 Stop=$52.95
POSITION: LMQ CK - Mar. $55c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lrcx.html
Play Date: 11/18/2006
SMSC (Standard Microsystems--$31.93; -0.51; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smsc.html
STATUS: Test breakout. SMSC looks ready to just burst higher. Indeed, it started that early this week and then made a quick test to end the week with the rest of the market, tapping at and holding the 10 day EMA (31.48) on the Friday low and rebounding on extremely low volume. Very nice 10 month cup with handle that looks ready to rip higher after this test of that strong move.
Volume: 105.25K Avg Volume: 253.126K
BUY POINT: $32.38 Volume=450K Target=$37.95 Stop=$31.35
POSITION: SMQ DF - Apr. $30c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/smsc.html
Play Date: 11/18/2006
VCLK (Valueclick--$22.11; 0.00; optionable): Internet advertising services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vclk.html
STATUS: Test breakout. VCLK broke out from a 10 month base to start November. Huge break that made us some good money. It worked latterly and then broke higher again Tuesday. It spent the rest of the week coming back to test, showing an excellent doji Friday at the 10 day EMA (21.67). Very nice test is setting it up for the next break higher as VCLK looks for a new all-time high.
Volume: 1.729M Avg Volume: 1.791M
BUY POINT: $22.68 Volume=2.4M Target=$26.95 Stop=$21.48
POSITION: QCS CX - Mar. $22.50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vclk.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/15/2006
ACTU (Actuate--$5.75; +0.10; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/actu.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Worked higher Friday after the Thursday day of rest, but it could not get any volume to really push it. Looks solid and still ready to move in as it continues higher on a bit more volume. To recap: After a solid volume doji at the 10 day EMA Tuesday, ACTU jumped higher on more strong trade Wednesday, continuing its late October breakout run. A nice, solid and orderly test of the breakout from the 6 month cup with handle and the resumption of the move on strong volume off of near support shows us the big money is back in. That is our signal to enter.
Volume: 233.081K Avg Volume: 326.515K
BUY POINT: $5.78 Volume=300K Target=$6.97 Stop=$5.38
POSITION: UCV DA - Apr. $5c (65 delta, 60 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/actu.html
Play Date: 11/11/2006
AKAM (Akami Technologies--$49.25; +0.05; optionable): Internet traffic control, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/akam.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Lower and lower volume to end the week as AKAM held above the 50 day SMA (48.28) after a higher volume thud lower Wednesday. Recovered nicely to hold the handle and continue the pattern. Still being patient and waiting for AKAM to show us a strong volume break higher. Solid leader taking a good rest and setting up another good buy.
Volume: 2.905M Avg Volume: 5.244M
BUY POINT: $50.75 Volume=7.5M Target=$60.95 Stop=$48.21
POSITION: UMU BJ - Feb. $50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/akam.html
Play Date: 11/18/2006
CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill--$59.88; +1.11; optionable): Casual restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmg.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CMG enjoyed a good day Friday, appropriate given NYMEX had its IPO and topped CMG's opening day record. It did not quite break CMG out from its 7 month base, but price/volume action has been excellent as it moves up toward the breakout. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price and CMG looks ready to follow it after its first base since its IPO.
Volume: 1.051M Avg Volume: 994.903K
BUY POINT: $60.11 Volume=1.4M Target=$68.98 Stop=$57.55
POSITION: CMG CL - Mar. $60c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cmg.html
Play Date: 11/13/2006
SAY (Satyam Computer Services--$22.59; -0.27; optionable): IT services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/say.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Still working laterally to end the week, holding just above the 10 day EMA (22.28). Holding all its gains after the strong break higher to start the week, waiting out the late week weakness in order to continue the breakout move. To recap: Volume jumped back above average last Monday as SAY started the breakout from a 7.5 month base. Moving to a new all-time high on that strong trade. SAY has moved into market leadership with some strong fundamentals growth rates on top of an excellent technical pattern. Ready to move in as SAY continues higher on more solid trade.
Volume: 548.5K Avg Volume: 1.004M
BUY POINT: $22.84 Volume=1.1M Target=$27.45 Stop=$21.54
POSITION: SAY DX - Apr. $22.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/say.html
Play Date: 11/02/2006
SKX (Skechers USA--$29.05; -0.29; optionable): Footwear
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/skx.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Solid above average volume Thursday as SKX broke higher, but it could not extend Friday, fading to the 10 day EMA on low, below average volume. Still solid and still ready to move higher. Want to see that volume jump back up as it makes the move. To recap: Nice breakout in late October from a 6 month cup with handle. It came back to test, holding the 18 day EMA and not filling the gap all the way. Nice hold at near support.
Volume: 239.1K Avg Volume: 413.261K
BUY POINT: $29.41 Volume=500K Target=$34.95 Stop=$28.48
POSITION: SKX DF - Apr. $30c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/skx.html
Play Date: 11/15/2006
SMSI (Smith Micro Software--$16.95; 0.00; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smsi.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Continued the modest, low volume fade to end the week following that strong price and volume jump Wednesday. Faded with the market but still holding above the 10 day EMA (16.47) and in good position to continue the break higher. To recap: Strong volume jumped in on Wednesday as SMSI got some traction off the lateral move over the 50 day EMA (15.55). This test follows the October breakout from a 3 month cup with handle and run higher. Looking for this test to give us a good entry point as SMSI sets up to make us some money once again.
Volume: 334.699K Avg Volume: 927.055K
BUY POINT: $17.11 Volume=165K Target=$20.55 Stop=$15.91
POSITION: QPM DW - Apr. $17.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/smsi.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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