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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Plays:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 11/18/2006
NVLS (Novellus Systems--$30.73; -0.28; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvls.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Okay, it has been a long time since NVLS split, but when we saw this pattern setting up we wanted to get it on the report. NVLS broke out from a nine month cup with handle base in last Monday, rallied higher to 32 on Wednesday, and then started a nice test, tapping at the 10 day EMA (30.02) on the Thursday and Friday lows. Nice test underway and it may take another session to fully complete the test, but the move is solid and we are ready to move in as NVLS makes the rebound on some rising trade.
Volume: 4.523M Avg Volume: 3.946M
BUY POINT: $31.24 Volume=3.9M Target=$37.42 Stop=$29.95
POSITION: NLQ CF - Mar. $30c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nvls.html
Leader Play:
Play Date: 11/18/2006
SUPX (Supertex--$46.05; +0.83; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/supx.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Ready to make the breakout to a new all-time high. Formed a big, ranging double bottom base from January 2006 and broke out in late October. It immediately tested, and held the 50 day EMA (41) before starting a new surge the past week. It banged its head into old resistance at 46, but looks to have made a higher low and started back up Friday on strong volume. Strong fundamentals growth rates put it in the upper echelon of the market, and this pattern is setting it up for the breakout.
Volume: 457.14K Avg Volume: 208.908K
BUY POINT: $46.38 Volume=445K Target=$54.45 Stop=$43.95
POSITION: SQO CI - Mar. $45c (59 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/supx.html
New buy points on current positions: As noted in the summary, many leaders have set up for new buys. Love averaging up into winners.
Play Date: 11/18/2006
BRCM (Broadcom--$34.99; -0.06; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcm.html
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. Excellent move as BRCM broke higher from an 11 week lateral consolidation two weeks back, clearing the 200 day SMA (34.43) on this move. It then started laterally to end the week, refusing to give up the gains and holding above the key support at the 200 day. Looking FOR a break higher from this test to give us a new entry to the next phase of the run.
Volume: 13.4M Avg Volume: 17.04M
BUY POINT: $35.33 Volume=20M Target=$41.95 Stop=$33.75
POSITION: RCQ BZ - Feb. $32.50c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/brcm.html
Play Date: 11/18/2006
CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$56.00; 0.00; optionable): Chinese travel service
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice blast higher on strong volume from a 17 week base the second week of November. Surged to 60 on the move and then needed a breather, coming back Thursday and Friday to test near support at the 10 day EMA (55.32). Excellent breakout, run, and test. Strong money flow led the way, and it is holding up nicely as it makes the test. Looking for it to bounce off the Friday doji at the 10 day EMA to give us the buy point.
Volume: 559.287K Avg Volume: 399.95K
BUY POINT: $56.72 Volume=600K Target=$67.95 Stop=$54.95
POSITION: QCT CK - Mar. $55c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ctrp.html
Play Date: 11/18/2006
LRCX (Lam Research--$54.34; -0.09; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lrcx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. One of the early leaders in the tech comeback, LRCX surged higher in October on earnings, formed a nice 5 week handle to a 6 month cup with handle base, and blasted higher again Monday. It spent the last half of the week coming back to test, showing a pair of dojis on the candlestick chart above near support at the 10 day EMA (52.65). Looking for it to give us another buy point off of this test as this leader plows to a new high. May come back and test a bit more, but with the holiday week it may come right back up from here.
Volume: 2.835M Avg Volume: 3.768M
BUY POINT: $54.72 Volume=4.8M Target=$62.95 Stop=$52.95
POSITION: LMQ CK - Mar. $55c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lrcx.html
Play Date: 11/18/2006
SMSC (Standard Microsystems--$31.93; -0.51; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smsc.html
STATUS: Test breakout. SMSC looks ready to just burst higher. Indeed, it started that early this week and then made a quick test to end the week with the rest of the market, tapping at and holding the 10 day EMA (31.48) on the Friday low and rebounding on extremely low volume. Very nice 10 month cup with handle that looks ready to rip higher after this test of that strong move.
Volume: 105.25K Avg Volume: 253.126K
BUY POINT: $32.38 Volume=450K Target=$37.95 Stop=$31.35
POSITION: SMQ DF - Apr. $30c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/smsc.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ANSS: Researching the date.
ATVI: Researching next day and moving well as we do so.
CMTL: Tentatively forecast 12-5-06
CTSH: Researching the next date.
CWTR: Forecast 11-21-06 after the close
GILD: Sold to the 50 day EMA but found support and Friday was bouncing on strong, above average volume.
JCI: Researching date.
JCP: No split announced on 11-9-06, but super earnings sent it higher again.
STT: Tentatively set for mid-December
UNP: Researching date. Announced earnings 10-19-06
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/17/2006
HET (Harrahs Entertainment--$75.86; -0.23; optionable): Resorts and casinos
BACKGROUND: No splits in HET's history
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/het.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Took a day off Friday after a solid price and volume bounce Thursday that looked ready to take HET out of its base. Just being patient and expecting a break higher this week. To recap: Strong volume Thursday as HET starts higher in the handle of its 7 month base. Money flow is surging ahead of price, and the sector has been on fire. Looking for continued solid trade as it make the break higher.
Volume: 4.322M Avg Volume: 2.7M
BUY POINT: $76.38 Volume=3M Target=$85.45 Stop=$74.42
POSITION: HET BO - Feb. $75c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/het.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/31/2006
STLD (Steel Dynamics--$60.09; +2.79; optionable): Steel and iron. Splits 2:1 on 11-21-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stld.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. STLD set up a nice cup with handle but then tanked on above average volume Thursday to the 50 day EMA (57.41). It held the line there, however, and rebounded Friday on a much stronger surge of volume. Lots of momentum building in the steel stocks, and with the split early this week STLD has something else going for it. Money flow remains high and we are looking to move in this week as it breaks higher Monday.
Volume: 2.082M Avg Volume: 1.307M
BUY POINT: $61.68 Volume=2.1M Target=$72.45 Stop=$59.95
POSITION: RQL BL - Feb. $60c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stld.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/16/2006
BBY (Best Buy--$55.00; -0.01; optionable): Electronics stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bby.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. After a strong price and volume rebound last week, BBY took Friday off, holding flat on lower, below average volume. Just a breather; it is ready to continue higher this week. To recap: Strong volume this week as BBY comes off a test of the 90 day SMA, rebounding well. Ready to make the break from its 7 month base, following the money flow higher.
Volume: 5.153M Avg Volume: 5.146M
BUY POINT: $55.45 Volume=5M Target=$63.95 Stop=$52.95
POSITION: BBY CK - Mar. $55c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bby.html
Play Date: 11/14/2006
JCOM (J2 Global Communications--$28.11; -0.05; optionable): Outsourced value added messaging/communications services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jcom.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice jump higher Wednesday, threatening the breakout move. Then a lateral, very tight move to the end of the week as the market softened. Like how it held its ground to end the week, leaving it in excellent position to break higher this week. To recap: JCOM has formed an extended handle to its 17 week base, working laterally above support at the 50 day EMA (26.96) as it does. Nice pattern that is setting up well for a breakout. It has had some of the option dating issues and is currently investigating them. Still, it is showing nice action, and if we see a break higher on strong volume we will be ready because the chart will be indicating what is ahead.
Volume: 285.306K Avg Volume: 464.941K
BUY POINT: $28.35 Volume=735K Target=$32.95 Stop=$26.95
POSITION: JQF CE - Mar. $25c (71 delta, 167 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jcom.html
Play Date: 11/13/2006
SAY (Satyam Computer Services--$22.59; -0.27; optionable): IT services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/say.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Still working laterally to end the week, holding just above the 10 day EMA (22.28). Holding all its gains after the strong break higher to start the week, waiting out the late week weakness in order to continue the breakout move. To recap: Volume jumped back above average last Monday as SAY started the breakout from a 7.5 month base. Moving to a new all-time high on that strong trade. SAY has moved into market leadership with some strong fundamentals growth rates on top of an excellent technical pattern. Ready to move in as SAY continues higher on more solid trade.
Volume: 548.5K Avg Volume: 1.004M
BUY POINT: $22.84 Volume=1.1M Target=$27.45 Stop=$21.54
POSITION: SAY DX - Apr. $22.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/say.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/11/2006
AKAM (Akami Technologies--$49.25; +0.05; optionable): Internet traffic control, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/akam.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Lower and lower volume to end the week as AKAM held above the 50 day SMA (48.28) after a higher volume thud lower Wednesday. Recovered nicely to hold the handle and continue the pattern. Still being patient and waiting for AKAM to show us a strong volume break higher. Solid leader taking a good rest and setting up another good buy.
Volume: 2.905M Avg Volume: 5.244MBUY POINT: $50.75 Volume=7.5M Target=$60.95 Stop=$48.21
POSITION: UMU BJ - Feb. $50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/akam.html
Play Date: 11/15/2006
SMSI (Smith Micro Software--$16.95; 0.00; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smsi.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Continued the modest, low volume fade to end the week following that strong price and volume jump Wednesday. Faded with the market but still holding above the 10 day EMA (16.47) and in good position to continue the break higher. To recap: Strong volume jumped in on Wednesday as SMSI got some traction off the lateral move over the 50 day EMA (15.55). This test follows the October breakout from a 3 month cup with handle and run higher. Looking for this test to give us a good entry point as SMSI sets up to make us some money once again.
Volume: 334.699K Avg Volume: 927.055K
BUY POINT: $17.11 Volume=165K Target=$20.55 Stop=$15.91
POSITION: QPM DW - Apr. $17.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/smsi.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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