|
|
stock watch, stock trading site
Begin Part 2 of 2
Best Plays, Part 2:
1) GDW: Ready to move on stronger volume.
2) MMM: Still looks good on the pullback.
3) STT: Sitting on a longterm up trendline and showing a doji.
4) AIV: Watch this one and its hammer doji.
5) JPM: A possible bounce play from support, in a sector rally.
6) PLT: Another bounce play if the techs can rally.
PFGC (Performance Food Group--$50.06; -1.57; no options): Food Wholesale
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfgc.html
STATUS: Pulled back the last two days from Monday's breakout high of 52.50, moving up Wednesday from a close test of the buy point (48.01), the stock opening at 48. Volume declined to 229,500, remaining well above average, on the move up. Unless volume surges back (it has pulled back for two days), the stock may not sustain this move up.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: On further upward movement but on again rising volume.
POSITION: Stock.
TESTS OF THE BREAKOUT:
New Play (from Monday):
MTB (M&T Bank Corp--$63.80; +0.40; no options): Bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtb.html
STATUS: Continued to climb after Monday's pop up from support (10 day MVA), but volume has pulled back so this move is topping out from all appearances. Look for a pullback to the 62.70 range; may take only a short breather before heading back up. The stock continues to look strong with outstanding money flow, relative strength, and buying.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: On a move back up after a pullback to the 62.70 range.
POSITION: Stock.
New Play (from the weekend):
MRCY (Mercury Computer Systems--$40.38; -3.62; optionable (QYR)): Telecom equipmt
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrcy.html
STATUS: Pulled back in a total retracement of Monday's nice move up to a new closing high (45.63) for December, triggering the stop orders. Don't like this drop on above average volume (310,800; avg. 186,000), as the stock will probably pull back to at least the 18 day MVA (39.16).
POSITION: No new positions until the stock breaks back over 46.
Continued Plays:
GDW (Golden West Financial--$63.69; +0.69; optionable (GDW)): Savings & Loans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gdw.html
STATUS: Inched up again Wednesday, but volume has been declining, today back below average levels (680,300). The stock is holding above support of the 10 day MVA, tested on the low of 61.94, but we want to see a volume surge to break GDW over the recent high at 65.25. Continued high money flow and relative strength (which has broken out ahead of price, a bullish sign).
BUY POINT: On a move over 65.25 on stronger volume in a rally.
POSITION: Stock. February $65 calls had insufficient open interests for the stock.
ACS (Affiliated Computer Svc--$56.63; -3.56; optionable (ACS)): Computer software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acs.html
STATUS: Dang it; it was looking good. The stock dropped to the 50 day MVA on stronger volume, breaking support of all the short term moving averages (18 day MVA at 58.86). Volume was only slightly higher and remains below average (182,400; avg. 261,000). No new positions, as we were looking at the stock begin to possibly form an ascending wedge.
XL (XL Capital Ltd--$78.13; -0.93; optionable (XL)): Insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xl.html
STATUS: Sitting right on its up trendline (supported further by the 50 day MVA at 77.49), as XL broke the short term moving averages on a two-day drop on below average volume. Not crazy about the play now, but the stock can bounce back up from here. No new positions until price makes it back over the 10 day MVA (80.55).
POSITION: None for now.
MAPS (Mapinfo Corp--$36.50; -4.50; no options): Computer software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/maps.html
STATUS: Broke support of the short term moving averages (18 day MVA at 38.83) on strong volume (298,200; avg. 167,000). The stock tapped the 50 day MVA on the low of 35.19, but it looks like we have gotten most of what we were looking for from this play for now.
POSITION: None for now.
MMM (Minnesota Mining & Mfg--$112.94; -0.81; optionable (MMM)): Conglomerates
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mmm.html
STATUS: Trying to hold together above its 10 day MVA (112.35). Gapped down on the open and moved up from support there (18 day MVA, 110) on lower volume (1.9 millon; avg. 2 million). Look for a move up from here as the stock gets a volume surge. MMM hit a breakout high of 119 December 5, pulling back since then to the support at the 10 day MVA. Great money flow and buying, and relative strength has broken out ahead of price, a bullish sign.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on above average volume.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or April $110 calls to buy (MMM DB).
BOUNCE PLAYS: These plays are fast plays after a pullback to support.
New Plays (from the weekend):
CB (Chubb Corp--$82.81; +1.06; optionable (CB)): Insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cb.html
STATUS: Moved up but still trying to break resistance at the short term moving averages (83.13, 18 day MVA). Volume was just higher as the stock bounced from the 50 day MVA (81.53), but look for stronger volume to beat the resistance. On that move, CB will try to run back up toward the December high of 90.25, much as it did starting in late November prior to reaching that price.
BUY POINT: On a move over the 18 day MVA (83.13), or, on from the 50 day MVA (81.53) on a pullback to that level, both moves on above average volume.
POSITION: From here or the 81 range, stock and/or April $75 calls to buy (CB DO). April $80 options had insufficient open interests (too illiquid for this stock).
Continued Play:
SDS (Sungard Data Systems Inc--$45.56; -5.19; optionable (SDS)): Computer software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sds.html
STATUS: Ouch; not a good day for software, either. Broke the 50 day MVA (47.89) on strong, well above average volume (1.5 million). No new positions.
WEDGES, PENNANTS, and FLYING PLATEAUS (AND FLAGS): These are some of our favorite patterns as the moves can be explosive. In this market, however, we need to see the move on the breakout on strong volume.
Wedges:
New Play (from Monday):
STT (State Street Corp--$119.42; -3.22; optionable (STT)): Banking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stt.html
STATUS: The stock broke support of the 50 day MVA (124.57) Tuesday, and headed down next session, closing on a doji as volume remained high but decreased at 842,600 (avg. 619,000). Price is sitting on a long-term up trendline, from which it can bounce back up for an upside play to at least the high of 122.90. We were looking at the stock in a forming ascending wedge pattern at a higher, shorter up trendline, on the last report.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: On a move up from here on continued strong but rising volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or February $115 calls to buy (STT BC).
DFXI: Removed, as the stock hit the 200 day MVA, losing the pattern in a big way.
Flying Plateau:
AIV (Apartment Invest & Mgmt--$48.94; -0.19; no options): Real Estate
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aiv.html
STATUS: Pulled back for the next two days (from the Monday move up from the flying plateau, the handle of the cup base), Wednesday showing a tight doji at the top of the stock's trading range on a surge in volume (361,600; avg. 131,000). Looks like it wants to head up from here, though pullbacks on stronger volume are not encouraging. The 10 day MVA is at 48.36 on a pullback. Relative strength remains bullish (breaking out ahead of price), and buying and money flow are strong.
BUY POINT: Over 49.71, on continued strong volume.
POSITION: Stock.
Continued Play:
IGT (International Game Technology--$41.81; -3.07; optionable (IGT)): Diversified electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igt.html
STATUS: Pulled back too far on Tuesday, and tanked to the 50 day MVA (41.06) Wednesday, losing the lateral consolidation we were watching to break out at the 10 day MVA (45.69). No new positions.
Pennants:
New Play (from Monday): Average volume is lower than 100,000, but the sector has performed well in the recent market and we like the pattern.
MOND (Robert G. Mondavi--$48.88; -1.93; no options): Food and beverage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mond.html
STATUS: Dropping out of the pennant on strong volume (187,300; avg. 56,000) as price broke support of the short term moving averages (18 day MVA at 49.89). We will see if the stock can bounce back into the pattern from its up trendline (48.50), or the 50 day MVA at 47.76.
POSITION: None, until the stock moves back over the 10 day MVA at 50.
Continued Play: Another stock with average daily volume of less than 100,000 shares.
VITL (Vital Signs--$29.38; -1.68; no options): Medical Instruments and Supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vitl.html
STATUS: Hurts to say good-bye; VITL lost the pennant Tuesday, moving below the 50 day MVA (31.35) and continuing down Wednesday. Looks like it wants to come back up, showing a doji at the top of its trading range, but we aren't playing it until it moves back over the short term moving averages (over 33).
BASING/TRADING RANGES:
New Play (from Monday):
JPM (J.P. Morgan & Co--$159.13; -5.06; optionable (JPM)): Banking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jpm.html
STATUS: Pulled back to the 10 day MVA Wednesday on lower, average volume (2 million). We were looking for the stock to move up from Monday's high of 167.19 on news of an interest rate cut. The stock can bounce from here on stronger volume. Relative strength has broken out ahead of price, a bullish sign.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: On a bounce on above average volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or March $155 calls to buy (JPM CK).
New Plays (from the weekend):
Two rolling pattern/trading range plays:
BMET (Biomet Inc--$36.13; +0.07; optionable (BIQ)): Health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmet.html
STATUS: Dropped below the 50 day MVA (36.48) Tuesday on stronger volume, holding at the level of that day's closing price on lower volume Wednesday (118,600; avg. 1.4 million). We are watching for the stock to roll back up from this level back up to the 39 range. As the stock approaches that level, we will look for signs of topping at the resistance unless the stock breaks out.
BUY POINT: On a move over the 50 day MVA (37) on above average volume or better.
POSITION: Stock and/or April $35 calls to buy (BIQ DG).
MER (Merrill Lynch & Co--$62.75; -1.13; optionable (MER)): Brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mer.html
STATUS: Formerly in a double bottom with handle. We are looking at the stock as a roller between 72 and its 200 day MVA (currently at 60.43). The stock can hold at support here for a move up on stronger volume (which pulled back below average to 4 million) if it doesn't pull back to the 60 level. Look for a move back over the high of 65.06 (just over the short term moving averages) on stronger volume.
BUY POINT: Back over 65 on above average (4.5 million; down to 4.26 million today) volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or April $62.50 or $65 calls to buy (MER DZ or DM).
Continuing basing stocks:
BEC (Beckman Coulter Inc--$39.69; -0.37; optionable (BEC)): Electronics (scientific/technical instruments)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bec.html
STATUS: Has pulled back a bit after bouncing back up in its handle Monday. Today's pullback was on increased volume (341,400; average is 204,360), but it has support here from its early December highs and 10 day MVA (at 39.57). The handle (to a cup dating back to early September) is ragged, with its high at 41.88.
BUY POINT: 42, on continued strong volume.
POSITION: Stock. February options at the $40 strike have insufficient in open interests.
CYTC (Cytyc Corporation--$57.50; -5.38; optionable (YQK)): Electronics
(scientific/technical instruments)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cytc.html
STATUS: Has been wedging in a handle to its 5-month cup base, but after a promising move up the stock crashed back down today. The move took the stock back through its 18 day MVA (58.53), tapping it 50 day at its low of 54.88. Volume was higher on the selling, coming in at 800,700 (average 777,000). After this drop, we will still need to see a strong recovery, still looking for a move over the November high of 63.50. It does not look like we will get it real soon.
BUY POINT: 63.63, on volume of 1.2 million or better.
POSITION: Stock and/or February $60 calls to buy (YQK BL).
Continued Plays:
PLT (Plantronics Inc--$43.88; -1.75; optionable (PLT)): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plt.html
STATUS: The stock continues to fall, not holding up very well in what will, on a further drop, look less like a handle to a double bottom pattern and more like the making of a triple bottom. However, the stock does have support here at its 50 day MVA (43.42), and with a doji today we could finally get a bounce back up. We will look for a move back up over the levels at which the stock was holding before today's drop. The "handle" high is 51.50. Still showing strong buying.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move over 46 on continued solid volume (632,000; average 327,600).
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock (too few open interests on February options).
PUT PLAYS: On any positions taken on downside plays, be ready to exit quickly in case the market bounces back up, letting the stock test its low once again before bouncing back up with the market.
DIGX (Digex Inc--$27.13; -3.18; optionable (UOM)): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/digx.html
STATUS: Made the move down through the 18 day MVA we were looking for, and tapped as low as 25 today. Volume was up on the selling, coming in at 617,100 (average 774,700). The recent low is at 21, and on a drop from here on increased volume we can still look at additional or new put positions.
BUY POINT: On a move down from here on increased volume.
POSITION: January $30 puts to buy (UOM MF).
New Put:
ALXN (Alexion Pharmacueticals--$60.00; -7.06; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/alxn.html
STATUS: ALXN found some temporary support, but today dropped again below its recent levels, and below support of its late-July lows. Volume was strong on the move (399,900; average 284,700), so the momentum is still solidly down, with no near strong support.
BUY POINT: A move down from here on continued strong volume.
POSITION: February $65 puts to buy (XQN NM) (very low open interest, so when selling it is not advisable to rely on stops).
Good Investing!
Your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
stock watch
stock trading site
|
