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stock split, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: AAPL; ATVI; BIDU; CBG; CWTR; GLDN; GME; ICE; LVS; MA; MTW; NVEC
New Plays:
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 11/21/2006
EMR (Emerson Electric--$88.82; +0.59; optionable): Multifaceted electronics and industrial technology company. Splits 2:1 on 12-12-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/emr.html
STATUS: Breakout test. EMR jumped sharply higher the first week of November, breaking out form a 6 month cup with handle base. It could not advance the ball much further, but in consolidating that strong break higher it refused to give up its any ground, working laterally on low volume as the 10 day EMA (87.69) rises to meet it. Once it gets there we are looking for EMR to continue its breakout move.
Volume: 950.8K Avg Volume: 1.453M
BUY POINT: $89.38 Volume=1.6M Target=$99.95 Stop=$87.45
POSITION: EMR CR - Mar. $90c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/emr.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 11/21/2006
LOW (Lowes--$30.68; +0.10; optionable): Home improvement
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/low.html
STATUS: Cup. LOW is working on a 9 month base. It bottomed in July and August, rallying nicely in September and October. It is now testing back, and found support at the 90 day SMA, making a higher low there as it jumped higher on earnings. It moved through the 200 day SMA (30.49) and has worked laterally testing that move. Monday it warned about a future slowdown and tumbled, but rebounded to positive after tapping the 50 day EMA on the low. That is a good showing of strength. Money flow is running higher ahead of price and this strength by LOW in the face of trouble is a strong positive. Looking for volume to jump back up as LOW makes the break higher off of this key level.
Volume: 5.938M Avg Volume: 9.797M
BUY POINT: $31.38 Volume=11M Target=$35.95 Stop=$29.95
POSITION: LOW DF - Apr. $30c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/low.html
Play Date: 11/21/2006
MON (Monsanto--$47.27; +1.00; optionable): Agricultural chemicals (Round-Up, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mon.html
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. MON is shooting for a new all-time high, forming an 11 week base that used the 200 day SMA (43.43) on the second low and bouncing from there. It came back to end last week and then bounced Tuesday on strong volume. A solid run in August after its split, this is a good consolidation to set up its next breakout. Looking for some continuing volume as MON sprays through the buy point.
Volume: 4.26M Avg Volume: 3.609M
BUY POINT: $47.57 Volume=5.4M Target=$54.95 Stop=$45.65
POSITION: MON DI - Apr. $45c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mon.html
Leader Play:
Play Date: 11/21/2006
SINA (Sina.com--$28.62; +0.33; optionable): Online media in China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sina.html
STATUS: Breakout test. SINA blasted higher to start November, breaking out from a 6 month cup with handle base. This is part of a longer three year pattern, but this last base has moved it off the bottom, indicating SINA is ready to embark upon a more interesting run higher. Nice hold of the 18 day EMA (27.84) as it tested the past week, bouncing off that level Tuesday on stronger, above average volume. Strong money flow is running higher ahead of price and we are ready to move in as it makes the breakout.
Volume: 1.19M Avg Volume: 811.7K
BUY POINT: $28.89 Volume=950K Target=$33.88 Stop=$27.45
POSITION: NOQ CE - Mar. $25c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sina.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ATVI: Researching next day and moving well as we do so.
CMTL: Tentatively forecast 12-5-06
CTSH: Researching the next date.
CWTR: Forecast 11-21-06 after the close. Good earnings but margin worries taking it lower after hours.
GILD: Heading back to the 50 day EMA for another test.
JCP: No split announced on 11-9-06, but super earnings sent it higher again.
STT: Tentatively set for mid-December
UNP: Researching date. Announced earnings 10-19-06
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/14/2006
EAT (Brinker Intl.--$46.12; -0.24; optionable): Chili's, Romano's and other casual restaurants. Splits 3:2 on 12-1-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eat.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Tightening up nicely above the 18 day EMA (45.87), a typical near support level for a strong breakout. Volume has been excruciatingly low the past week as it finishes this test. Then, volume was up Tuesday on a very low volume session. That caught our eye and we are watching closely for the break higher. Money flow is still solid. Waiting, waiting, waiting, but it will likely yield the move we want.
Volume: 643.4K Avg Volume: 1.239M
BUY POINT: $47.05 Volume=1.4M Target=$55.95 Stop=$45.38
POSITION: EAT DI - Apr. $45c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eat.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/20/2006
AMX (America Movil--$44.66; -0.42; optionable): Wireless telecom, Latin America
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amx.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Lower volume as AMX faded following the strong Monday move. Good. It is getting the test out of the way and it rebounded off the low, indicating the buyers are still there. To recap: Made us some money on its prior run from September to October after breakout out from a reverse head and shoulders base. Nice run to 44 and then consolidated the run with the recent 4 week ascending pattern over the 18 day EMA (43.35), refusing to give up its gains. Monday it found its new legs and broke higher through the resistance at 44 on a strong shot of above average volume. Moving to a new high and ready to move in as it continues the break.
Volume: 4.352M Avg Volume: 3.93M
BUY POINT: $45.32 Volume=4M Target=$53.95 Stop=$42.95
POSITION: AMX BI - Feb. $45c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amx.html
Play Date: 11/18/2006
CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$56.05; -0.05; optionable): Chinese travel service
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Still that excellent test of the breakout, showing another tight doji over the 10 day EMA (55.57) on low volume. Just about ready to move again along with all of the other Chinese stocks. To recap: Nice blast higher on strong volume from a 17 week base the second week of November. Surged to 60 on the move and then needed a breather, coming back Thursday and Friday to test near support at the 10 day EMA. Excellent breakout, run, and test. Strong money flow led the way, and it is holding up nicely as it makes the test. Looking for it to bounce off the Friday doji at the 10 day EMA to give us the buy point.
Volume: 354.799K Avg Volume: 401.754K
BUY POINT: $56.72 Volume=600K Target=$67.95 Stop=$54.95
POSITION: QCT CK - Mar. $55c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ctrp.html
Play Date: 11/14/2006
JCOM (J2 Global Communications--$28.62; +0.12; optionable): Outsourced value added messaging/communications services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jcom.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume drained off Tuesday from the solid Monday move just as it looked as if JCOM was going to do some globe trotting after a breakout move. Still solid, and if shows us a further move on some volume it is worth a buy. To recap: JCOM has formed an extended handle to its 17 week base, working laterally above support at the 50 day EMA (27.08) as it does. Nice pattern that is setting up well for a breakout. It has had some of the option dating issues and is currently investigating them. Still, it is showing nice action, and if we see a break higher on strong volume we will be ready because the chart will be indicating what is ahead.
Volume: 304.691K Avg Volume: 458.731K
BUY POINT: New: on a continued move with some volume (orig. $28.35) Volume=735K Target=$32.95 Stop=$26.95
POSITION: JQF CE - Mar. $25c (71 delta, 167 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jcom.html
Play Date: 11/17/2006
OTEX (Open Text--$19.98; -0.08; optionable): Content management solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/otex.html
STATUS: Breakout test. OTEX is still coming back to the 10 day EMA (19.71) to test the breakout form its 6 month cup with handle pattern. Nice surge on strong volume on the breakout and now a nice, lower volume test the past three sessions. Looking for this to hold and then send the breakout move back up.
Volume: 322.478K Avg Volume: 359.75K
BUY POINT: $20.48 Volume=388K Target=$24.65 Stop=$19.31
POSITION: QFT BD - Feb. $20c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/otex.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/20/2006
AMT (American Tower--$38.27; +0.67; optionable): Cell towers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amt.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Price was moving but volume was a tad low. Looks good, just needs a bit of a push with trade. Looking to move in as it continues. To recap: AMT has set up a short and sweet 5 week base on top of the 50 day EMA (36.58), using this base to consolidate the September breakout from a 4 month cup with handle base. Very nice handle has formed, setting it up for the break to a 5 year high.
Volume: 1.75M Avg Volume: 2.28M
BUY POINT: On a continued move (orig. $38.12) Volume=3.4M Target=$43.95 Stop=$36.95
POSITION: AMT DU - Apr. $37.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amt.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock split
stock recommendation
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