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us stock market, trading system
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 11/28/2006
NDAQ (Nasdaq Stock Market--$39.90; -0.10; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ndaq.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Last week NDAQ broke out form the handle to an 8 month cup with handle base. Strong volume as it made the break, then came back to test the move this week, tapping at the 18 day EMA on the Tuesday low, filling the gap from the breakout. It rebounded to close basically flat. Nice breakout, nice test. Now it looks ready to continue higher.
Volume: 4.213M Avg Volume: 2.559M
BUY POINT: $40.95 Volume=3M Target=$48.95 Stop=$38.82
POSITION: NQD CH - Mar. $40c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ndaq.html
Play Date: 11/28/2006
XTO (XTO Energy--$48.41; +2.06; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Strong, above average volume Tuesday as XTO started the breakout from its 16 week pattern that is part of a larger 10 month reverse head and shoulders base. After that run in 2005 it needed time to consolidate and it has done that. Now it is ready to run again.
Volume: 5.203M Avg Volume: 4.136M
BUY POINT: $48.89 Volume=6M Target=$58.45 Stop=$46.65
POSITION: XTO BI - Feb. $45c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/xto.html
New buy point on a current position:
Play Date: 11/28/2006
AMAG (Advanced Magnetics--$55.55; +1.22; optionable): Diagnostic services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amag.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Huge surge two weeks back broke AMAG out from its 7 month base. Strong move that made us some great money and now it has faded back to test the move, tapping the 10 day EMA (53.02) Tuesday on the low and rebounding for a gain. Looking to move in as this leader continues the move higher, stretching the breakout.
Volume: 326.445K Avg Volume: 335.314K
BUY POINT: $56.15 Volume=350K Target=$66.95 Stop=$52.95
POSITION: AVM BK - Feb. $55c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amag.html
Play Date: 11/28/2006
QLGC (Qlogic--$22.29; +0.30; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qlgc.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. QLGC broke out in late October, tested, and then rallied up the 10 day EMA (22.06) for most of November. It rolled back the past few sessions, tapping the 18 day EMA (21.64) on the Tuesday low, rebounding to close positive on rising, above average volume. Looks like a good shakeout to test the initial breakout run, and now it looks ready to continue that run higher.
Volume: 2.829M Avg Volume: 2.548M
BUY POINT: $22.45 Volume=2.7M Target=$26.95 Stop=$21.44
POSITION: QLC DX - Apr. $22.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/qlgc.html
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ADS 11/27 Test 18 62.81 -0.11 63.55 72.95 580K 950K 62.35
Buy Not Hit.
ADS 10/26 Test BO 62.81 -0.11 61.17 69.95 580K 1.3M 62.42
Current. Nice doji at the 18 day EMA (62.61) is setting up the
next buy point after this nice, orderly, low volume test.
AKAM 11/11 DB hdl 47.82 +0.20 50.81 60.95 4.1M 7.5M 48.04
Current.
AKAM 10/21 Test 50 47.82 +0.20 47.20 55.95 4.1M 7M 48.04
Current. Doji at the 50 day EMA (47.54), trading below that
level intraday & then recovering to close above that
level. This is where you want it to hold on this test.
ALXN 11/27 Test BO 43.00 -0.04 43.75 51.95 1.3M 800K 42.15
Buy Not Hit. Super action with a nice tight doji at the 18 day EMA
as volume jumped higher above average. It is ready
to make its move.
AMAG 11/04 Test BO 55.55 +1.22 40.95 48.98 326K 350K 55.88
Current. Nice tap of the 10 day EMA and then a rebound positive.
Looks ready to continue the breakout run.
BIDU 11/07 Asc Bse 108.59 +1.74 91.15 101.95 3.6M 2M 111.45
Current. Gapped lower, sold to the 18 day EMA, then rebounded
for a gain on rising, above avg volume. Nice.
BMRN 10/11 DB hdl 17.18 -0.03 16.62 19.95 2.2M 1.2M 16.88
Current. Another doji that used the 18 day EMA as support. Volume
surged above average. It looks to be crouching ahead
of the next bounce.
BRCM 11/18 Test 20 33.53 -0.89 35.42 41.95 24M 20M 34.15
Current.
BRCM 09/25 Test 50 33.53 -0.89 30.96 35.68 24M 17M 35.55
Current. Struggled all session on the PALM, NOK news but managed to recover and hold the 18 day EMA on the close but still below the 200 day MA. Looks like a shakeout and now look for a rebound thru the 200 day (34.10). Looking at more positions as it does.
COGO 11/20 Test BO 16.15 -0.43 17.32 20.78 671K 850K 16.21
Buy Not Issued. Tapped the 50 day EMA on the low and rebounded to recoup
most of the losses. Still set to make the break after
this test of key support.
COH 09/25 Test BO 41.84 -0.27 35.05 40.48 2.5M 5M 41.05
Current. Nice doji at the 10 day EMA, reaching lower and rebounding
to hold that level. Good shakeout setting up the next
move higher.
CRM 11/06 Cup hdl 39.35 -0.80 42.40 49.95 1.2M 3M 41.95
Current. Finished the test of the 50 day EMA, holding that level
on the close on below avg volume. Needs to show us
a strong bounce off of this key support and clear 42
on that move.
CTRP 11/18 Test BO 54.33 -0.92 56.72 67.95 366K 600K 54.95
Buy Not Issued.
CTRP 10/28 Test 50 54.33 -0.92 51.00 61.45 366K 577K 57.32
Current. Reahced odnw again but then recouped over $1 off the
lows. Now need to see the resumption of the breakout
move from here.
CYMI 11/18 Cup hdl 47.05 -0.08 49.05 56.45 660K 1.2M 47.48
Buy Not Issued. Tapped the 50 day EMA on the low and closed flat, showing
a doji after completing the test of the 50 day. Will
be patient and see if CYMI can show us a strong breakout.
EZPW 10/21 Test BO 45.14 +0.63 44.12 51.95 273K 750K 46.55
Current. Still working laterally on low volume and in a tight
range. Looks ready but has yet to show the move. Splits
12-12-06.
FFIV 10/13 DB hdl 73.55 +0.89 58.00 69.95 1M 1.5M 71.88
Target Hit. Nice reach lower and recovery to close again above
the 10 day EMA. Showing excellent strength as it continues
its uptrend.
GLDN 11/10 Test BO 39.41 +0.19 39.30 46.32 220K 245K 38.88
Current. A test of the 18 day EMA as well and a recovery for
a positive close on the second day of average volume.
Solid action as it continues its uptrend.
GME 10/21 Test BO 54.40 -0.61 53.00 60.45 1.4M 1.7M 52.68
Current. Excellent test of the 10 day EMA on lower, below avg
volume, holding the early November high. Looking for
a bounce higher from here.
GME 10/11 Cup hdl 54.40 -0.61 49.84 58.95 1.4M 2.1M 53.48
Current.
HET 11/17 Cup hdl 78.46 +1.91 78.15 87.32 6.2M 3M 75.85
Entered today. Surged in the afternoon on another potential suitor.
That move broke it out of its handle on strong trade.
Now we see if it can deliver a good upside run for
a few sessions.
HOC 10/10 Dbl btm 51.13 +0.22 46.82 54.50 1.1M 1.2M 50.48
Current. Well, HOC has not shown us much as oil moved higher,
working laterally and testing the 18 day EMA. Set up
well to move, just hasn't done it yet.
ICE 10/18 Test 18 100.81 +0.19 83.64 94.95 3.3M 2.4M 97.45
Current. Doji above the 10 day EMA as ICE continues to consolidate
its strong mid-November run.
IIG 11/27 Test BO 21.47 -0.05 22.35 26.95 304K 425K 21.32
Buy Not Hit.
IIG 10/25 Asc Bse 21.47 -0.05 16.49 19.95 304K 200K 23.68
Current. Reached down to the 18 day EMA on the low and rebounded
to close flat. Nice, nice test and ready to continue
the run.
IM 10/25 DB hdl 20.60 -0.02 20.84 24.95 762K 1.5M 20.44
Current. Doji at support at 20.50. Really needs to show us something
after this shakeout.
LH 10/28 Cup hdl 69.20 -0.41 68.80 78.75 945K 1.5M 67.22
Buy Not Issued.
LRCX 11/18 Test BO 53.25 +0.17 54.55 62.95 3.8M 4.8M 54.21
Current. Gapped lower, held above support at 52, and then posted
a modest gain on rising volume. Critical point where
it needs to hold and continues its rally up the 10
and 18 day EMA.
LRCX 10/18 Test BO 53.25 +0.17 49.75 57.45 3.8M 5.7M 54.78
Current.
LSI 11/27 Cup hdl 10.73 +0.08 10.96 13.22 5M 7.7M 10.44
Buy Not Hit. Still working laterally along the 10 day EMA, setting
up for a solid breakout.
MA 11/11 Test BO 100.75 +1.76 94.25 104.95 6.2M 3M 100.75
Target Hit. Gapped lower, and tested near the 18 day EMA (94.17)
on the low before rebounding for a gain. Nice test
and ready to continue the move.
MRVC 11/14 Cup hdl 3.49 +0.11 3.55 4.57 1.1M 1.9M 3.33
Current. Nice recovery from the Monday selling, holding the
18 day EMA and starting to bounce again.
MTW 11/02 Test BO 55.80 -1.77 55.50 66.48 1.3M 1.3M 55.98
Current. Tough session falling to the 18 day EMA on the close
as volume jumped back above avg. This is where it needs
to hold.
NUVO 11/20 DB hdl 19.02 -0.06 19.75 23.98 530K 500K 18.89
Buy Not Hit. Doji just over the 50 day EMA on rising, above avg
volume. It is set to move and now just has to show it.
NVEC 11/11 Test BO 39.18 -1.42 42.75 51.95 956K 1.1M 40.95
Current.
NVEC 10/14 Test 50 39.18 -1.42 33.75 40.00 956K 580K 42.45
Current. Tough session for NVEC, but after reaching down to the 50 day EMA intraday it started to rebound. Not as much of a rebound as we wanted, but given the bounce we let it run. Needs to get back thru 40 with some authority soon.
NVLS 11/13 Cup hdl 31.61 +0.06 31.12 37.25 4.2M 3.9M 31.54
Current. Tapped some support at 30 and started to rebound.
NYX 11/02 Cup hdl 101.20 +0.09 77.10 87.95 8M 2.4M 105.65
Current. Nice reach lower below the 10 day EMA and then recovered
to hold the 10 day EMA and posting a modest gain on
stronger, above avg volume. Nice.
OII 11/27 Cup hdl 41.80 +1.28 42.32 50.94 574K 1.7M 39.98
Buy Not Hit. Nice bounce off the bottom of the 4 week handle. Volume
did not jump with it, however. As it did not make the
breakout move we are not sweating it. Looks nice.
OMCL 11/21 Test 50 18.38 +0.09 19.69 23.65 206K 325K 18.31
Buy Not Hit. Still holding the 50 day EMA, crawling along. Solid
bump in volume Tuesday. Volume often jumps ahead of
the actual move, so we are watching this one for Wednesday.
PFWD 11/08 Test BO 14.97 +0.09 15.03 17.94 359K 252K 14.89
Current. Another good test of the 18 day EMA and posted a modest
gain on a very nice surge in above avg volume. Good
test, good shakeout, and looks ready to resume the
breakout run.
QLGC 10/30 Test BO 22.29 +0.30 20.65 24.65 2.8M 3M 21.78
Current. Excellent action, tapping the 18 day EMA on the low
and rebounding on solid above avg volume for a gain.
Looks ready to continue the move.
SAY 11/13 Cup hdl 22.95 -0.04 23.11 27.72 1.1M 1.1M 22.68
Current. Gapped lower but then rebounded to close flat. Good
recovery Definately filled that gap last week.
SINA 11/21 Test BO 28.06 -0.25 28.89 33.88 1.6M 950K 27.45
Buy Not Issued. Nice doji with tail, holding the 18 day EMA on teh
close. Nice shakeout and with the volume on the recovery
it is likely set for the breakout move.
SMSC 11/18 Test BO 31.89 0.00 32.63 37.95 155K 450K 31.35
Current.
SMSC 10/03 Cup hdl 31.89 0.00 29.21 34.75 155K 504K 31.89
Current. Doji with tail, reaching below the 18 day EMA and then
rebounding to hold this support. Good shakeout. SMSC
has been ready to move, just has not extended them.
This shakeout could do it.
SMSC 09/16 Cup hdl 31.89 0.00 30.05 34.75 155K 504K 31.89
Current.
TSRA 11/08 Test BO 37.48 +0.74 37.48 44.95 539K 1M 35.95
Buy Not Issued. Rebounded to hold the 18 day EMA but no volume. TSRA
still needs to break through 38 on strong trade.
TYL 11/15 Test 50 14.06 -0.11 14.52 17.48 223K 265K 13.65
Buy Not Issued. Holding support at 14 after the pullback the past three
sessions. This is where it needs to hold and continue
the run up the 10 and 18 day EMA.
UCTT 11/08 FlyPlat 13.11 -0.33 13.88 16.95 679K 600K 13.31
Current. Big reach down to the 50 day EMA and then a strong recovery to just below the 18 day EMA.
VCLK 11/18 Test BO 23.86 +0.31 22.68 26.95 3.2M 2.4M 21.48
Buy Not Issued.
VCLK 11/01 Rev HS 23.86 +0.31 19.86 23.98 3.2M 2.4M 22.79
Current. Gapped lower but then rebounded and posted a gain on
solid volume. Consolidating in place, refusing to give
up its gains.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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