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stock trading site, stock trading information
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Plays:
New Pre-Split Play:
Play Date: 11/28/2006
FMD (First Marblehead--$74.00; -0.31; optionable): Credit services. Splits 3:2 on 12-5-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fmd.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. FMD broke out from a short 10 week double bottom with handle in mid-September. That was part of a base on base pattern, the finishing touch to a much larger 15 month cup with handle. Tested the 50 day EMA (67.66) to start the month and surged again. It has tested this week, tapping just below the 18 day EMA (71.99) on the low and surging back on very strong volume to hold above the 10 day EMA on the close. Nice shakeout and looks ready to make a pre-split move.
Volume: 1.86M Avg Volume: 911.874K
BUY POINT: $74.38 Volume=1M Target=$85.45 Stop=$71.89
POSITION: FMD CO - Mar. $75c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fmd.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 11/28/2006
JWN (Nordstrom--$49.30; -0.13; optionable): High end department stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jwn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. JWN broke out in September from an 8 month cup base and rallied to 49 in late October. It then formed a short 5 week cup with handle to consolidate that move, breaking out from that base early last week. It has come back to test this week, holding the 10 day EMA (48.88) Tuesday, tapping the 10 day on the low and showing a tight doji on continued above average volume. Strong money flow continues to lead the way higher, and this doji indicates that JWN is done with this test. Looking for a solid bounce higher from here to enter the play.
Volume: 3.764M Avg Volume: 2.643M
BUY POINT: $49.68 Volume=3M Target=$58.95 Stop=$48.12
POSITION: JWN DJ - Apr. $50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jwn.html
Play Date: 11/28/2006
LOGI (Logitech Intl.--$27.79; +0.08; optionable): Computer peripherals, accessories (mice, video cams, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/logi.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. LOGI gapped sharply higher in mid-October, breaking out from a 10 month as it did. It made a test of that move and then rallied near 30. The past week it has come back to test that move, tapping at the 18 day EMA (27.44) on the Tuesday low and rebounding to post a modest gain on rising but still below average volume. Nice test and ready to continue the move.
Volume: 356.612K Avg Volume: 434.885K
BUY POINT: $28.05 Volume=445K Target=$33.68 Stop=$27.28
POSITION: LQG CE - Mar. $25c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/logi.html
Play Date: 11/27/2006
OII (Oceaneering Intl.--$41.80; +1.28; optionable): Oil & Gas offshore drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oii.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice price bounce Tuesday but volume remained well below average. Just some more good work in the two week, low and below average volume handle that is consolidating the October and early November run higher, waiting for the 18 day EMA (40.37) to catch up with it. Money flow remains strong as it consolidates in its 19 week base, forming up and preparing for a breakout as oil prices have recovered. This is the shakeout, the quiet time just before the next breakout and run higher.
Volume: 574.2K Avg Volume: 1.161M
BUY POINT: $42.32 Volume=1.7M Target=$50.94 Stop=$39.98
POSITION: OII DH - Apr. $40c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/oii.html
New buy point on current post-split position:
Play Date: 11/28/2006
QLGC (Qlogic--$22.29; +0.30; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qlgc.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. QLGC broke out in late October, tested, and then rallied up the 10 day EMA (22.06) for most of November. It rolled back the past few sessions, tapping the 18 day EMA (21.64) on the Tuesday low, rebounding to close positive on rising, above average volume. Looks like a good shakeout to test the initial breakout run, and now it looks ready to continue that run higher.
Volume: 2.829M Avg Volume: 2.548M
BUY POINT: $22.45 Volume=2.7M Target=$26.95 Stop=$21.44
POSITION: QLC DX - Apr. $22.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qlgc.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ATVI: Researching next date. Nice test of the 18 day EMA
CMTL: Tentatively forecast 12-5-06
CTSH: Researching the next date.
HET: Researching date. Nice break higher Tuesday.
JCI: Researching date.
JCP: No split announced on 11-9-06. Researching next date.
STT: Tentatively set for mid-December
UNP: Researching date. Announced earnings 10-19-06
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/28/2006
XTO (XTO Energy--$48.41; +2.06; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Researching the date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4:3 split 2-16-05 at $39.10. Before that a 5:4 split on 2-17-04 at 28.50. Before that a 4:3 split on 2-18-03 at $24.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Strong, above average volume Tuesday as XTO started the breakout from its 16 week pattern that is part of a larger 10 month reverse head and shoulders base. After that run in 2005 it needed time to consolidate and it has done that. Now it is ready to run again.
Volume: 5.203M Avg Volume: 4.136M
BUY POINT: $48.89 Volume=6M Target=$58.45 Stop=$46.65
POSITION: XTO BI - Feb. $45c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xto.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/27/2006
CELG (Celgene--$54.21; -0.14; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/celg.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Still in the very nice test, trading in a narrow range Tuesday on rising but still below average volume. Nicely set up to continue the move and just needs to show us the break higher. To recap: CELG broke out from a 15 week base in late October and was starting to test when it was announced as a new SP500 company. That gapped it higher from there. It continued up the 10 day EMA (54.79) until the past week. Now it is testing, coming back to the 18 day EMA (53.91) on low, below average volume. It tapped that level Monday and rebounded modestly to close. Very nice test of a very nice breakout and run, setting up for the next run higher.
Volume: 3.379M Avg Volume: 4.16M
BUY POINT: $55.48 Volume=4.4M Target=$63.95 Stop=$53.69
POSITION: LQH DK - Apr. $55c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/celg.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/27/2006
ADS (Alliance Data--$62.81; -0.11; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ads.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Nice tight doji at the 18 day EMA (62.60) as ADS shows it is ready to continue higher after this very nice test of the November surge (that started, incidentally, at the 18 day EMA). To recap: ADS sold back the past four sessions as volume remained well below average, unlike the indices and many stocks. It has tapped the 18 day EMA on the low and bounced modestly, setting up well for the next run higher. Solid stock that is proving to be a leader in this market. Looking to move in after it makes this test.
Volume: 580K Avg Volume: 882.702K
BUY POINT: $63.55 Volume=950K Target=$72.95 Stop=$62.35
POSITION: ADS CL - Mar. $60c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ads.html
Play Date: 11/21/2006
SINA (Sina.com--$28.06; -0.25; optionable): Online media in China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sina.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice tight doji at the 18 day EMA (28.06) Tuesday as volume jumped well above average. Nice test of near support, and the doji indicates the pullback is just about over. To recap: SINA blasted higher to start November, breaking out from a 6 month cup with handle base. This is part of a longer three year pattern, but this last base has moved it off the bottom, indicating SINA is ready to embark upon a more interesting run higher. Nice hold of the 18 day EMA as it tested the past week, bouncing off that level Tuesday on stronger, above average volume. Strong money flow is running higher ahead of price and we are ready to move in as it makes the breakout.
Volume: 1.603M Avg Volume: 841.298K
BUY POINT: $28.89 Volume=950K Target=$33.88 Stop=$27.45
POSITION: NOQ CE - Mar. $25c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sina.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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